Flash Flood Warning 6, NWS Kansas City, MO

745 
WGUS73 KEAX 251427
FFSEAX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
927 AM CDT MON MAR 25 2019

MOC107-251433-
/O.EXP.KEAX.FF.W.0006.000000T0000Z-190325T1430Z/
/00000.0.DM.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Lafayette MO-
927 AM CDT MON MAR 25 2019

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN LAFAYETTE COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 930 AM CDT...

The threat for flash flooding has receded as waters along the 
Missouri River remain at or below 31 feet. Moderate flooding along 
the river in low-lying areas will continue for at least the next 
several days. Please continue to heed any remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3920 9348 3920 9352 3921 9353 3923 9348

$$

Blair

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1049 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2019

.Discussion...
Issued at 317 PM CDT SUN MAR 24 2019

Quite a little temperature gradient this afternoon as a small
dryslot allowed temps to warm into the lower 60s across southern
portions of the forecast area, while upper 40s and low 50s
dominate further north under a healthy veil of stratus. Upper-
level low responsible for clouds and lingering shwrs this
afternoon is clearly evident on available satellite imagery this
afternoon as feature continues to track along the Iowa/Missouri
border. High-res model guidance in decent agreement that lingering
light shwr activity will persist well into the event across
northeastern Missouri before activity eventually comes to an end
towards midnight. With abundant cloud cover anticipated overnight,
temps won't fall too much with lows Monday morning likely staying
in the lower 40s for most, with upper 30s possible across
northeast Missouri.

Sun lovers will likely have to wait at least one more day as
Monday is shaping up to be another cloudy day across the region as
added lift arrives from the northwest in the form of southeastward
moving shortwave trough. For now, model guidance is keeping the
region dry thanks to dry advection from the northeast, however
northeasterly winds and the aforementioned clouds will likely
keep highs in the lower 50s Monday afternoon. Trends will begin to
improve following its departure Monday night as southerly flow
returns to the area. This will coincide with rising height fields
aloft as ridging across the western U.S. shifts east with time.
This will allow temperatures to warm across the region midweek
with upper 60s and maybe a few low 70s possible by Wednesday.

Unfortunately, all good things have to come to an end however as
precipitation chances will increase beginning Wednesday night as a
western U.S. upper low begins moving east, and leeside low
pressure develops over the central High Plains. Quick look at the
low-level height pattern suggests the Gulf moisture will have
little difficulty lifting north with time as large-scale upper
ridging will dominate off the Southeast coast. This should set the
stage for several rounds of rainfall which should last through
at least Friday night before the upper storm system finally
shifts east with time. Along with the rainfall, models show weak
to moderate levels of instability as far east as northern
Missouri, suggesting convection will also be possible through this
period. Just how quick this feature moves out of the area remains
in question as the GFS appears to be the fastest, while the ECMWF
and Canadian want to show a slower progression, suggesting rain
may continue through portions of the day on Saturday. In any
event, there's plenty of time for models to come into better
agreement, which will hopefully prove beneficial especially
considering the ongoing and likely long-duration river flood
impacts currently plaguing the region.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1044 PM CDT SUN MAR 24 2019

Ceiling heights will continue to diminish overnight into the IFR
category early in the forecast period. IFR ceilings should persist
until Monday morning, at which point a slow improvement is
expected heading into the afternoon. VFR conditions will hold off
until around sunset Monday evening. May also see brief periods of
light drizzle tonight, with minor reductions to visibility
possible.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

Discussion...32
Aviation...Welsh

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
457 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2019

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-251000-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
457 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

 Rain showers and isolated thunderstorms will push through the area
this morning with some isolated showers popping up this afternoon.
The threat of severe weather is low.

 Moderate to Major river flooding is occurring along the Missouri
 River from Brownville to Parkville and eastward to Glasgow.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

 Temperatures will cool off Monday, but will slowly climb to near 70
 by Thursday afternoon. The next chance of precipitation will return
 Thursday, but this does not look widespread and little accumulation
 is expected.

 Moderate to Major river flooding is occurring along the Missouri
 River from Brownville to Parkville and eastward to Glasgow.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo