Flash Flood Warning 3, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
600 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2019

.Discussion...
Issued at 312 PM CDT THU MAR 21 2019

Tranquil weather continues this afternoon with sunny skies, light
northwest winds, and temperatures in the 50s. Surface high pressure
will slide to our southwest tonight, with upper level ridging
gradually building in from the central Plains on Friday. This will
continue the pleasant weather to end the work week, with highs in
the 50s to middle 60s tomorrow afternoon and mostly sunny skies.

More active weather is expected for the weekend as a lead shortwave
trough ejects from the Four Corners into Iowa and becomes
negatively-tilted. Areas of showers will slowly spread from west
to east during the day on Saturday, with more widespread
precipitation expected late Saturday night into Sunday morning as
the surface low tracks into southeast Nebraska. Instability looks
fairly marginal at this time, but enough may be present for a few
embedded thunderstorms on Sunday. Total rainfall amounts over the
weekend will be highly dependent on any thunderstorm activity and
its respective location(s) and intensity, but a general basin
average of one-half inch with locally higher amounts are expected
over northwest Missouri into northeast Kansas, with lesser amounts
points south and east.

Cooler weather advects into the area Monday and Tuesday as high
pressure builds into the Great Lakes with slightly below normal
temperatures. Strong southerly flow will develop ahead of the next
upper trough, with an increase in warmth and moisture. Highs by next
Thursday may reach the 70 degree mark, potentially our warmest day
in months, along with a chance for thunderstorms.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 557 PM CDT THU MAR 21 2019

VFR conditions will persist through the forecast period as a
surface ridge advances eastward. Cloud cover will later build
over the area early Saturday ahead of the next storm system.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

Discussion...Blair
Aviation...Welsh

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
529 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2019

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-221030-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
529 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

 Moderate to Major river flooding is occurring along the Missouri
River from Brownville to Parkville and eastward to Glasgow.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

 Rain chances increase over the weekend with the potential for
 isolated thunderstorms Saturday, with a better chance at scattered
thunderstorms Sunday.

 Moderate to Major river flooding is occurring along the Missouri
 River from Brownville to Parkville and eastward to Glasgow.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo