Flash Flood Warning 28, NWS Kansas City, MO

059 
WGUS73 KEAX 290557
FFSEAX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1257 AM CDT Wed May 29 2019

MOC033-041-177-290607-
/O.CAN.KEAX.FF.W.0028.000000T0000Z-190529T0730Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Chariton MO-Ray MO-Carroll MO-
1257 AM CDT Wed May 29 2019

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR CHARITON...RAY AND CARROLL COUNTIES IS
CANCELLED...

Flooding is no longer expected to pose a threat. Please continue to
heed any remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3970 9286 3970 9326 3969 9328 3962 9327
      3962 9328 3961 9328 3961 9375 3953 9376
      3953 9420 3982 9420 3991 9285

$$

MOC025-061-115-117-290730-
/O.CON.KEAX.FF.W.0028.000000T0000Z-190529T0730Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Daviess MO-Linn MO-Caldwell MO-Livingston MO-
1257 AM CDT Wed May 29 2019

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 230 AM CDT FOR
SOUTHERN DAVIESS...SOUTHERN LINN...CALDWELL AND LIVINGSTON
COUNTIES...

At 1257 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy
rain across the warned area.  Flash flooding is expected to begin
shortly.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Chillicothe, Brookfield, Marceline, Hamilton, Braymer, Polo, Bucklin,
Meadville, Hale, Breckenridge, Kingston, Laclede, Linneus, Wheeling,
Utica, Cowgill, Kidder, Ludlow, Mooresville and Lock Springs.

This includes Interstate 35 in Missouri near mile marker 58.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.

A Flash Flood Warning means that flooding is imminent or occurring.
If you are in the warned area move to higher ground immediately.
Residents living along streams and creeks should take immediate
precautions to protect life and property.

&&

LAT...LON 3970 9286 3970 9326 3969 9328 3962 9327
      3962 9328 3961 9328 3961 9375 3953 9376
      3953 9420 3982 9420 3991 9285

$$

Laflin

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
620 PM CDT Tue May 28 2019

.Discussion...
Issued at 324 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2019

The main concern with this forecast continues to be the potential
for severe weather, with large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes
possible, and flash flooding likely.

Early in the day and ongoing convection has added a bit of a wrench
into the outlook for this afternoon. The storms that moved across
northern MO earlier today helped reinforce an existing boundary
and also lay down a new boundary in our northeastern zones.
Synoptically, a stationary front is draped along the Missouri
River valley. This front was likely reinforced by the outflow and
the colder post- storm airmass in northern MO. As a result, we
have temperatures ranging from the lower 60s in northern MO to
the upper 70s in our southern zones. These warm temperatures are
in spite of thick low to mid-level cloud coverage. Models seem to
be resolving the low clouds well and the 18Z KTOP sounding shows
that there is minimal inhibition in the warm sector. Forecast
soundings show this as well and the end result of the low clouds
is to basically weaken low level lapse rates. Above this layer,
steep lapse rates exist. Given the steep mid-level lapse rates,
large hail is expected with any storm throughout the forecast
area. The weaker low level lapse rates may limit the damaging
wind potential. The tornado risk will remain and will likely
increase as stronger low-level flow moves over the region. This
will enhance the low-level helicity values after 22/23Z.
Additionally, if any storm is able to move along the boundary, the
tornado risk will increase significantly. The problem is that the
boundary is oriented west to east and right moving supercell
motion is northeast. It's not out of the question but there's a
stronger possibility of storms crossing the boundary and briefly
interacting with it than anchoring to it.

For the flash flood potential, the underlying conditions are
obviously saturated with most rivers in flood across the forecast
area. Flash flood guidance is very low and any new convection
exacerbates the ongoing issues. Earlier today, storms that moved
through the northeastern portions of the forecast area produced over
2 inches of rain in a short period of time. This a a testament to
the very high precipitable water values in excess of 1.6" across
the area and overspreading the warm front. So storms that are
north of the front will still be capable of very heavy rainfall.
In fact, north of the front should see the most widespread
rainfall, another 1 to 2 inches expected from this afternoon
through tonight. There will likely be pockets of heavier rain,
depending on where storms track and whether they train or not.
Rain should move east of the area tomorrow morning. There may be
some lingering showers/storms after 12Z tomorrow but the heaviest
rains will have moved away. So the flash flood watch ending at 12Z
looks good for now. The only change was to add a county of rows
southward.

For Wednesday into Wednesday night, the Tuesday/Tuesday night
convection will help push the front south of the forecast area.
There may be some showers/storms in our far southern area, but it
looks like the heaviest rain will stay south of our area. Finger
crossed, we can start to dry out, at least for a few days.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 619 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2019

Combination of VFR and MVFR conditions currently prevail across
the state line terminals, but strong and dangerous thunderstorms
are rolling across the region, and will continue to do so through
about 03Z. Surface winds are expected top generally stay from the
south, veering a little to the west by Wednesday morning. These
storms have been producing considerable severe weather, so have
included hail in the forecast for the terminals.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for KSZ102.

MO...Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for MOZ001>008-
     011>017-020>025-032-033.

&&

Discussion...CDB
Aviation...Cutter

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
429 AM CDT Tue May 28 2019

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-290930-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
429 AM CDT Tue May 28 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

 Widespread severe storms are possible this afternoon and evening.
 Hazards include strong to damaging winds, large hail, and a few
 possible tornadoes. Flash flooding is possible tonight into
 Wednesday morning.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

 Storms capable of producing large hail and strong wind gusts are
 possible Wednesday afternoon and evening before dry conditions
 return to the area late Wednesday.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
716 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0708 PM     TORNADO          3 SW MAYWOOD            39.11N 94.84W
05/28/2019                   WYANDOTTE          KS   STORM CHASER

            TREE RIPPED OUT OF GROUND AND HWY SIGN
            CRUMPLED LIKE PAPER ON INTERSTATE 70 NEAR
            BONNER SPRINGS.

&&

PP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
759 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0757 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     5 W KEARNEY             39.37N 94.46W
05/28/2019                   CLAY               MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            FUNNEL CLOUD SPOTTED FROM HWY 92 WEST.
            FUNNEL HAS SINCE DISSIPATED BUT WALL CLOUD
            REMAINS.

&&

PP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
806 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0805 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     1 N MOSBY               39.34N 94.29W
05/28/2019                   CLAY               MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LARGE ROTATING WALL CLOUD WITH POSSIBLE
            FUNNEL NORTH OF MOSBY.

&&

PP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
807 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0803 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 SE SMITHVILLE         39.37N 94.55W
05/28/2019                   CLAY               MO   STORM CHASER

            12 INCH DEEP WATER FLOWING ACROSS HIGHWAY
            92, EAST OF SMITHVILLE AT TILLMAN ROAD.

&&

MMS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
808 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0806 PM     TORNADO          3 ESE KEARNEY           39.36N 94.31W
05/28/2019                   CLAY               MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TORNADO CONFIRMED EAST OF KEARNEY.

&&

PP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
823 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     FLASH FLOOD      UNIONVILLE              40.48N 93.01W
05/28/2019                   PUTNAM             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORTS OF NUMEROUS BRIDGES WASHED OUT
            ACROSS PUTNAM COUNTY. ONE CAR WAS WASHED
            INTO THE CREEK WITHIN CITY LIMITS.

&&

PP