Special Weather Statement, NWS Quad Cities, IA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
626 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2019

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 354 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2019

As of 330 AM, scattered showers and thunderstorms were ongoing in
the counties along and norht I-80. This round of convection has
been fueled by moist low-level SW flow riding up and over a series
of outflow boundaries. The southern most boundary was along the
I-80 corridor, and there was another prominent boundary stretching
from Freeport to near Iowa City. Very heavy downpours and
localized flash flooding have been the primary concerns.

PWATs of 1.3-1.5" and 10-15 kt MBE (corfidi) vectors from the SW
have led to some degree of back-building of small-scale
convective cells. One of the hardest hit areas has been in
southern Delaware Co. near Hopkinton where dual-pol and MRMS
radar estimates 2-3+ inches of rainfall. Storm activity should
generally weaken over the next few hours as the outflow
boundaries become further displaced from the convection due to
weak low-level shear.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2019

Today and Tonight

A surface pressure trough is forecast to sink southward into
southern Iowa and west-central Illinois by the early afternoon. In
this area, a convectively induced outflow boundary is already moving
in form the north. The general idea is for low-level convergence,
albeit modest, to focus across the southern third of the CWA --
roughly along and south of highway 34 (west of Galesburg). Adding
daytime heating into the mix, and thereby erosion of surface-
based CIN, scattered storms are expected to develop near the zone
of low-level convergence. The most uncertainty lies with exactly
where this sets up. Various convective allowing models favor
initiation in the southern tier or two of counties, with the
convection becoming more robust as it pushes south and east of the
CWA into eastern MO and central/southern IL.

The Storm Prediction Center has a slight risk for severe storms in
the extreme SE corner of the forecast area (along and south of a
line from Macomb to Keokuk), and a marginal risk further north.

Very warm temps into the mid to upper 80s (south) and humid
conditions will yield high afternoon instability. HREF surface CAPE
peaks near 3500 J/kg south of I-80, while deep layer shear is
weak. If storms form, they could pulse up quickly, bringing a risk
for damaging winds, torrential rain, and frequent lightning. For
the overnight, dry and quiet weather is in store. Forecast lows
are in the 60s. Uttech

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2019

Thursday and Friday

We will dry out for the end of the weak with split upper-level
flow across the Central U.S. Temperatures will be close to normal
with highs near 80 F. There are slight chances for showers and
thunderstorms in the far south. This activity will likely be
spotty, if it forms at all.

This Weekend

There are chances for showers and thunderstorms area-wide. Models
have been backing off on the coverage and intensity of this potential
rain event -- especially the ECMWF and CMC. The GFS appears to be
too aggressive on the interaction between a cut-off upper low passing
through the Southern U.S. and a trough dropping in from the
Northern Rockies. Because of this, the GFS is still indicating a
potential for heavy bouts of rain on Sunday into Sunday night.
Confidence is low on the GFS solution at this time.

Early Next Week

A mainly dry period with pleasant June temperatures -- highs in
the 70s and lows in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2019

A cluster of thunderstorms will likely impact KCID this morning
with brief IFR/LIFR. If these storms maintain their current
strength, torrential rainfall can be expected, along with
frequent lightning and gusty winds. Although not likely, will
have to watch ongoing storms to see if they hold together toward
KMLI during the late morning/midday.

Redevelopment of isolated storms is possible this afternoon near
and to the south of KBRL. Continued with a PROB30 group due to low
confidence on coverage.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Issued at 1205 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019

Most tributary rivers and the Mississippi River were steady or
falling as runoff and routed flow from the recent prolonged
stretch of excessive rainfall is working its way through the
system. On the Mississippi, flooding remains at Moderate levels
from Dubuque to Fulton and Major levels from Camanche to Gregory
Landing. On the tributaries, Major flooding was limited to the
Rock River at Moline. All other sites had minor to moderate flooding.

Scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon through
Wednesday but heavy rain would be localized. This weekend a storm
system is expected to remain south of the area across MO and into
the lower MS Valley. There is still the potential for scattered
thunderstorms in the dvn cwa which would produce locally heavy
rainfall. Confidence in this scenario is low and will depend on
the track of low pressure to our south.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Uttech
SHORT TERM...Uttech
LONG TERM...Uttech
AVIATION...Uttech
HYDROLOGY...Haase

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
435 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2019

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-060945-
Buchanan-Delaware-Dubuque-Benton-Linn-Jones-Jackson-Iowa-Johnson-
Cedar-Clinton-Muscatine-Scott-Keokuk-Washington-Louisa-Jefferson-
Henry IA-Des Moines-Van Buren-Lee-Jo Daviess-Stephenson-Carroll-
Whiteside-Rock Island-Henry IL-Bureau-Putnam-Mercer-Henderson-
Warren-Hancock-McDonough-Scotland-Clark-
435 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
Illinois...northwest Illinois...west central Illinois...east
central Iowa...northeast Iowa...southeast Iowa and northeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

There is a Slight risk for severe thunderstorms along and to the
south of a line from Macomb, IL to Keokuk, IA. A marginal risk
extends north to a Freeport, IL to Fairfield, IA line.

Scattered thunderstorms may redevelop this afternoon. If they
form, areal coverage is expected to be low. The primary threats
are damaging winds, frequent lightning, and torrential rainfall
which could lead to localized flash flooding.

Area rivers are experiencing flooding. Please see the
latest Flood Statements and Flood Warnings for details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

There are chances for thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday across the
outlook area. Heavy downpours are possible, but severe weather is
not anticipated at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon.

Uttech

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