Severe Thunderstorm Warning 103, NWS Quad Cities, IA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
342 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2019

Warm based ridge with ringing northern periphery storm track will
look to continue for much of the week, with a flattening trends mid
to late week. Thus with the CWA being in the vicinity of this track,
there will be at almost a daily risk of storm clusters or at
least isolated development much of the week, as well as seasonably
warm and humid conditions. Will let heat advisory ride this
evening although some storm outflow cooling relief in spots.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2019

Tonight...While the IL storms continue to drop southward into
central IL, expect portion of storm clusters in far southern MN to
drop south along high instability gradient down into northeast and
east central IA counties of the area this evening. With very high
CAPE build up, a good chance that some of these storms will be
severe and produce damaging winds, as well as locally heavy
rainfall. A convective watch has been issued for this potential.
Other isolated storms may fire on the remnants/outflow of the
southward passing MCS in IL as well, and will adjust POPs for both
possibilities. After that, later night MCS spawning grounds take
shape acrs SD into western and southwest MN, with some chance of
this activity bleeding down into the northern or northeastern CWA
by early Monday morning. Or there could be new development on the
northeast portion of the storm track ring on nose of convergent LLJ
later tonight from far southeast MN into north central IL and get
into the northern and eastern portions of the CWA by that means as
well. Besides damaging winds, areas that get hit several times by
these storm chances may be susceptible to localized flash flooding
with all the ambient moisture/PWATs available.

Monday...After any lingering morning convection decays or moves out,
much of the day may be capped, hot and humid. There will be the
potential for another heat advisory having to be hoisted if
convective debris clears in time or is minimal. Most models are dry
through Tuesday morning with the bulk of the storms shunted to the
north again acrs the Dakotas/MN/WI. But will have to carry low POPs
Monday night into Tue morning in the north and northeast for the
potentail of a more southward propagation potential.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through next Sunday)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2019

Tuesday through next Sunday...In brief, Tuesday may be similar to
Monday being hot and humid with nighttime storm chances, before
signs of the continued ridge dampening may bring the storm track
further south for a more direct line acrs the local area Wednesday
into Friday. Rounds of moderate to heavy rainfall may start to
add up acrs portions of the area mid to late week with some local
river implications possible. Still some longer range indications
suggesting that maybe high pressure building south down acrs the
Upper MS RVR Valley and GRT LKS may shunt the brunt of the storm
track or convective action zone further to the south of the region
from KS over to the OH RVR Valley from late Friday and through
the next weekend. But latest long range model trends arn't as
aggressive with this shift as previous runs.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2019

VFR TAFs are expected through the period. Removed the mention of
VCTS from the TAFs as storms are currently expected to remain east
of the all TAF sites. If storms end up impacting either KDBQ or
KMLI a period of MVFR ceilings and visibilties is possible.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2019

With an active ring of fire pattern still looking to be on track for
much of the week for the upper Midwest, it still appears that the
resultant rounds of heavy rain will most likley occur acrs areas to
the north over southern MN, northern IA and WI. Some recent heavy
rainfall has already fallen acrs portions of these areas during the
past few days. This and additional rounds of rain will run-off and
eventually make it into the upper basin of the Mississippi River
system and flow southward. This will most likely produce eventual
rises on the local stretch of the Mississippi during this coming
first week of July. Currently most sites on the MS RVR are still
falling with the last site still in flood-Gregory Landing expected
to fall below the flood stage tonight. But areas to the north from
Dubuque down to Fulton are already showing steady to slow rises from
the recent rains upstream. This flow will continue to work on down
and continue to produce rises at the other sites through the
upcoming week. But with the recent downtrends along much of the
local stretch of the Mississippi, most rises are projected to remain
nominal and below the action stage. The exceptions may be at some of
the southern sites that are still high such as Keithsburg, Gladstone
LD18, Burlington, and Gregory Landing which are prevented from
falling below the action stage from the additional flow routed
through those sites. Some chance that Gladstone, Burlington and
Gregory Landing may approach the flood stage again by late next
weekend.

Some of the tributary rivers with reaches further to the north will
experience rises into next week as well from recent and projected
heavy rainfall in those areas. Rivers such as the Cedar, Iowa, and
Wapsi will experience rising trends, with a few sites making over
the action stage or held up above action if already over that stage.
The Wapsi at De Witt may rise to just under the flood stage by the
5th or 6th of July. Rain further south over the local area during
the mid to late week may further impact local tributary rivers by
next weekend.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for Benton-Buchanan-
     Cedar-Clinton-Delaware-Des Moines-Dubuque-Henry IA-Iowa-
     Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Keokuk-Lee-Linn-Louisa-
     Muscatine-Scott-Van Buren-Washington.

IL...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for Bureau-Carroll-
     Hancock-Henderson-Henry IL-Jo Daviess-McDonough-Mercer-
     Putnam-Rock Island-Stephenson-Warren-Whiteside.

MO...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for Clark-Scotland.

&&

SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...Cousins
HYDROLOGY...12

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
435 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2019

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-011000-
Buchanan-Delaware-Dubuque-Benton-Linn-Jones-Jackson-Iowa-Johnson-
Cedar-Clinton-Muscatine-Scott-Keokuk-Washington-Louisa-Jefferson-
Henry IA-Des Moines-Van Buren-Lee-Jo Daviess-Stephenson-Carroll-
Whiteside-Rock Island-Henry IL-Bureau-Putnam-Mercer-Henderson-
Warren-Hancock-McDonough-Scotland-Clark-
435 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
Illinois...northwest Illinois...west central Illinois...east
central Iowa...northeast Iowa...southeast Iowa and northeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

Strong to severe thunderstorms are likely across portions of the
Outlook Area through the evening as a line of storms moves in from
the north. Damaging winds will be the primary threat, with large
hail a secondary concern. These storms will also be capable of
producing locally heavy rainfall and possible flash flooding. More
isolated to scattered storms may then be possible late tonight
into early Monday morning, especially on the Illinois side of the
Outlook Area.

The Storm Prediction center has a Slight Risk for severe storms
through tonight for most of the Outlook Area. Other areas such as
southeast Iowa and northeast Missouri are in a Marginal Risk for
severe weather.

A Heat Advisory continues through sunset this evening with heat
indices of 100 to 105 degrees.

Area rivers are experiencing flooding. Please see the
latest Flood Statements and Flood Warnings for details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

Hot and humid weather will persist Monday and Tuesday posing a
heat risk.

Thunderstorms chances will increase again Tuesday and persist
through Saturday. It is too early to be specific, but there will
probably be some risk for severe weather and heavy rain sometime
during this time frame, and of course, lightning will be a threat
with all thunderstorms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is likely through this evening for portions of
the Outlook Area.

12

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
558 PM CDT SUN JUN 30 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0549 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 W CEDAR RAPIDS        41.97N 91.71W
06/30/2019                   LINN               IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NUMEROUS TREE LIMBS SOME 4 INCHES IN
            DIAMETER.

&&

DC

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