High Wind Warning 3, NWS Quad Cities, IA

Benton County, IA, Buchanan County, IA, Cedar County, IA, Clinton County, IA, Delaware County, IA, Des Moines County, IA, Dubuque County, IA, Henry County, IA, Iowa County, IA, Jackson County, IA, Jefferson County, IA, Johnson County, IA, Jones County, IA, Keokuk County, IA, Lee County, IA, Linn County, IA, Louisa County, IA, Muscatine County, IA, Scott County, IA, Van Buren County, IA, Washington County, IA, Bureau County, IL, Carroll County, IL, Hancock County, IL, Henderson County, IL, Henry County, IL, Jo Daviess County, IL, McDonough County, IL, Mercer County, IL, Putnam County, IL, Rock Island County, IL, Stephenson County, IL, Warren County, IL, Whiteside County, IL, Clark County, MO, Scotland County, MO

093 
WWUS73 KDVN 270149
NPWDVN

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
749 PM CST Tue Nov 26 2019

IAZ040-051-052-063>065-067-068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ015>018-
024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-271000-
/O.CON.KDVN.HW.W.0003.191127T0900Z-191128T0000Z/
Buchanan-Benton-Linn-Iowa-Johnson-Cedar-Muscatine-Scott-Keokuk-
Washington-Louisa-Jefferson-Henry IA-Des Moines-Van Buren-Lee-
Rock Island-Henry IL-Bureau-Putnam-Mercer-Henderson-Warren-
Hancock-McDonough-Scotland-Clark-
Including the cities of Independence, Vinton, Cedar Rapids, 
Marengo, Iowa City, Tipton, Muscatine, Davenport, Bettendorf, 
Sigourney, Washington, Wapello, Fairfield, Mount Pleasant, 
Burlington, Keosauqua, Fort Madison, Moline, Rock Island, 
Geneseo, Princeton, Hennepin, Aledo, Oquawka, Monmouth, Carthage,
Macomb, Memphis, and Kahoka
749 PM CST Tue Nov 26 2019

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...West to northwest winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60
  mph expected.

* WHERE...Portions of northeast Missouri, east central, 
  northeast and southeast Iowa and north central, northwest and 
  west central Illinois.

* WHEN...From 3 AM to 6 PM CST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds may blow down trees, branches and power
  lines. Power outages will be possible. Travel will be difficult,
  especially for high profile vehicles and along north to south
  oriented roads. Outdoor decorations may get damaged. 

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The strongest winds are expected from
  Wednesday morning through the early afternoon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

IAZ041-042-053-054-066-ILZ001-002-007-009-271000-
/O.CON.KDVN.HW.W.0003.191127T1200Z-191128T0000Z/
Delaware-Dubuque-Jones-Jackson-Clinton-Jo Daviess-Stephenson-
Carroll-Whiteside-
Including the cities of Manchester, Dubuque, Anamosa, Maquoketa, 
Clinton, Galena, Freeport, Mount Carroll, and Sterling
749 PM CST Tue Nov 26 2019

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...West to northwest winds 25 to 30 mph with gusts up to 55
  mph expected.

* WHERE...In Iowa, Jackson, Jones, Dubuque, Clinton and Delaware 
  Counties. In Illinois, Stephenson, Jo Daviess, Carroll and 
  Whiteside Counties.

* WHEN...From 6 AM to 6 PM CST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds may blow down trees, branches and power
  lines. Power outages will be possible. Travel will be difficult,
  especially for high profile vehicles and along north to south
  oriented roads. Outdoor decorations may get damaged. 

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The strongest winds are expected from
  Wednesday morning through the early afternoon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

Sheets

654 
WWUS73 KDVN 270853
NPWDVN

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
253 AM CST Wed Nov 27 2019

IAZ040-051-052-063>065-067-068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ015>018-
024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-271700-
/O.CON.KDVN.HW.W.0003.191127T0900Z-191128T0000Z/
Buchanan-Benton-Linn-Iowa-Johnson-Cedar-Muscatine-Scott-Keokuk-
Washington-Louisa-Jefferson-Henry IA-Des Moines-Van Buren-Lee-
Rock Island-Henry IL-Bureau-Putnam-Mercer-Henderson-Warren-
Hancock-McDonough-Scotland-Clark-
Including the cities of Independence, Vinton, Cedar Rapids, 
Marengo, Iowa City, Tipton, Muscatine, Davenport, Bettendorf, 
Sigourney, Washington, Wapello, Fairfield, Mount Pleasant, 
Burlington, Keosauqua, Fort Madison, Moline, Rock Island, 
Geneseo, Princeton, Hennepin, Aledo, Oquawka, Monmouth, Carthage,
Macomb, Memphis, and Kahoka
253 AM CST Wed Nov 27 2019

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...West to northwest winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 
  60 mph expected.

* WHERE...Portions of northeast Missouri, east central, 
  northeast and southeast Iowa and north central, northwest and 
  west central Illinois.

* WHEN...Through 6 PM CST today.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds may blow down trees, branches and 
  power lines. Power outages will be possible. Travel will be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles and along 
  north to south oriented roads. Outdoor decorations may get 
  damaged.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The strongest winds are expected this  
  morning through the early afternoon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

IAZ041-042-053-054-066-ILZ001-002-007-009-271700-
/O.CON.KDVN.HW.W.0003.191127T1200Z-191128T0000Z/
Delaware-Dubuque-Jones-Jackson-Clinton-Jo Daviess-Stephenson-
Carroll-Whiteside-
Including the cities of Manchester, Dubuque, Anamosa, Maquoketa, 
Clinton, Galena, Freeport, Mount Carroll, and Sterling
253 AM CST Wed Nov 27 2019

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO
6 PM CST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...West to northwest winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 
  mph expected.

* WHERE...In Iowa, Jackson, Jones, Dubuque, Clinton and Delaware 
  Counties. In Illinois, Stephenson, Jo Daviess, Carroll and 
  Whiteside Counties.

* WHEN...From 6 AM to 6 PM CST today.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds may blow down trees, branches and 
  power lines. Power outages will be possible. Travel will be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles and along 
  north to south oriented roads. Outdoor decorations may get 
  damaged.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The strongest winds are expected from this 
  morning through the early afternoon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$
Haase

214 
WWUS73 KDVN 271143
NPWDVN

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
543 AM CST Wed Nov 27 2019

IAZ040-051-052-063>065-067-068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ015>018-
024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-271945-
/O.CON.KDVN.HW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-191128T0000Z/
Buchanan-Benton-Linn-Iowa-Johnson-Cedar-Muscatine-Scott-Keokuk-
Washington-Louisa-Jefferson-Henry IA-Des Moines-Van Buren-Lee-
Rock Island-Henry IL-Bureau-Putnam-Mercer-Henderson-Warren-
Hancock-McDonough-Scotland-Clark-
Including the cities of Independence, Vinton, Cedar Rapids, 
Marengo, Iowa City, Tipton, Muscatine, Davenport, Bettendorf, 
Sigourney, Washington, Wapello, Fairfield, Mount Pleasant, 
Burlington, Keosauqua, Fort Madison, Moline, Rock Island, 
Geneseo, Princeton, Hennepin, Aledo, Oquawka, Monmouth, Carthage,
Macomb, Memphis, and Kahoka
543 AM CST Wed Nov 27 2019

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...West to northwest winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 
  60 mph expected.

* WHERE...Portions of northeast Missouri, east central, 
  northeast and southeast Iowa and north central, northwest and 
  west central Illinois.

* WHEN...Through 6 PM CST today.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds may blow down trees, branches and 
  power lines. Power outages will be possible. Travel will be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles and along 
  north to south oriented roads. Outdoor decorations may get 
  damaged.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The strongest winds are expected this
  morning through the mid afternoon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

IAZ041-042-053-054-066-ILZ001-002-007-009-271945-
/O.CON.KDVN.HW.W.0003.191127T1200Z-191128T0000Z/
Delaware-Dubuque-Jones-Jackson-Clinton-Jo Daviess-Stephenson-
Carroll-Whiteside-
Including the cities of Manchester, Dubuque, Anamosa, Maquoketa, 
Clinton, Galena, Freeport, Mount Carroll, and Sterling
543 AM CST Wed Nov 27 2019

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...West to northwest winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 
  60 mph expected.

* WHERE...In Iowa, Jackson, Jones, Dubuque, Clinton and Delaware 
  Counties. In Illinois, Stephenson, Jo Daviess, Carroll and 
  Whiteside Counties.

* WHEN...Through 6 PM CST today.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds may blow down trees, branches and 
  power lines. Power outages will be possible. Travel will be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles and along 
  north to south oriented roads. Outdoor decorations may get 
  damaged.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The strongest winds are expected from this
  morning through the mid afternoon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$
Haase

646 
WWUS73 KDVN 271528
NPWDVN

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
928 AM CST Wed Nov 27 2019

IAZ040-051-052-063>065-067-068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ015>018-
024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-272330-
/O.CON.KDVN.HW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-191128T0000Z/
Buchanan-Benton-Linn-Iowa-Johnson-Cedar-Muscatine-Scott-Keokuk-
Washington-Louisa-Jefferson-Henry IA-Des Moines-Van Buren-Lee-
Rock Island-Henry IL-Bureau-Putnam-Mercer-Henderson-Warren-
Hancock-McDonough-Scotland-Clark-
Including the cities of Independence, Vinton, Cedar Rapids, 
Marengo, Iowa City, Tipton, Muscatine, Davenport, Bettendorf, 
Sigourney, Washington, Wapello, Fairfield, Mount Pleasant, 
Burlington, Keosauqua, Fort Madison, Moline, Rock Island, 
Geneseo, Princeton, Hennepin, Aledo, Oquawka, Monmouth, Carthage,
Macomb, Memphis, and Kahoka
928 AM CST Wed Nov 27 2019

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...West to northwest winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts between
  50 to 60 mph expected.

* WHERE...Portions of northeast Missouri, east central, 
  northeast and southeast Iowa and north central, northwest and 
  west central Illinois.

* WHEN...Through 6 PM CST today.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds may blow down trees, branches and 
  power lines. Power outages will be possible. Travel will be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles and along 
  north to south oriented roads. Outdoor decorations may get 
  damaged.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The strongest winds are expected this 
  morning through the mid afternoon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

IAZ041-042-053-054-066-ILZ001-002-007-009-272330-
/O.CON.KDVN.HW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-191128T0000Z/
Delaware-Dubuque-Jones-Jackson-Clinton-Jo Daviess-Stephenson-
Carroll-Whiteside-
Including the cities of Manchester, Dubuque, Anamosa, Maquoketa, 
Clinton, Galena, Freeport, Mount Carroll, and Sterling
928 AM CST Wed Nov 27 2019

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...West to northwest winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts between
  50 to 60 mph expected.

* WHERE...In Iowa, Jackson, Jones, Dubuque, Clinton and Delaware 
  Counties. In Illinois, Stephenson, Jo Daviess, Carroll and 
  Whiteside Counties.

* WHEN...Through 6 PM CST today.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds may blow down trees, branches and 
  power lines. Power outages will be possible. Travel will be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles and along 
  north to south oriented roads. Outdoor decorations may get 
  damaged.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The strongest winds are expected from 
  this morning through the mid afternoon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

Uttech

610 
WWUS73 KDVN 271918
NPWDVN

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
118 PM CST Wed Nov 27 2019

IAZ040-041-051>053-063>065-067-076>078-087>089-098-099-MOZ009-010-
272100-
/O.EXT.KDVN.HW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-191127T2100Z/
Buchanan-Delaware-Benton-Linn-Jones-Iowa-Johnson-Cedar-Muscatine-
Keokuk-Washington-Louisa-Jefferson-Henry IA-Des Moines-Van Buren-
Lee-Scotland-Clark-
Including the cities of Independence, Manchester, Vinton, 
Cedar Rapids, Anamosa, Marengo, Iowa City, Tipton, Muscatine, 
Sigourney, Washington, Wapello, Fairfield, Mount Pleasant, 
Burlington, Keosauqua, Fort Madison, Memphis, and Kahoka
118 PM CST Wed Nov 27 2019

...HIGH WIND WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...West to northwest winds 25 to 40 mph with gusts between 
  50 to 55 mph expected.

* WHERE...Portions of northeast Missouri, east central, northeast
  and southeast Iowa.

* WHEN...Until 3 PM CST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds may blow down trees, branches and 
  power lines. Power outages will be possible. Travel will be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles and along 
  north to south oriented roads. Outdoor decorations may get 
  damaged.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Strong winds will begin to subside by 3 
  PM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

IAZ042-054-066-068-ILZ001-002-007-009-015>018-024>026-034-035-
280000-
/O.CON.KDVN.HW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-191128T0000Z/
Dubuque-Jackson-Clinton-Scott-Jo Daviess-Stephenson-Carroll-
Whiteside-Rock Island-Henry IL-Bureau-Putnam-Mercer-Henderson-
Warren-Hancock-McDonough-
Including the cities of Dubuque, Maquoketa, Clinton, Davenport, 
Bettendorf, Galena, Freeport, Mount Carroll, Sterling, Moline, 
Rock Island, Geneseo, Princeton, Hennepin, Aledo, Oquawka, 
Monmouth, Carthage, and Macomb
118 PM CST Wed Nov 27 2019

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...West to northwest winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts between
  50 to 55 mph expected.

* WHERE...Portions of far eastern Iowa, and all of northwest
  Illinois.

* WHEN...Through 6 PM CST today.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds may blow down trees, branches and 
  power lines. Power outages will be possible. Travel will be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles and along 
  north to south oriented roads. Outdoor decorations may get 
  damaged.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Strong winds are expected through the mid 
  afternoon before subsiding this evening.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

087 
WWUS73 KDVN 272054
NPWDVN

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
254 PM CST Wed Nov 27 2019

IAZ040-041-051>053-063>065-067-076>078-087>089-098-099-MOZ009-010-
272200-
/O.EXP.KDVN.HW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-191127T2100Z/
Buchanan-Delaware-Benton-Linn-Jones-Iowa-Johnson-Cedar-Muscatine-
Keokuk-Washington-Louisa-Jefferson-Henry IA-Des Moines-Van Buren-
Lee-Scotland-Clark-
Including the cities of Independence, Manchester, Vinton, 
Cedar Rapids, Anamosa, Marengo, Iowa City, Tipton, Muscatine, 
Sigourney, Washington, Wapello, Fairfield, Mount Pleasant, 
Burlington, Keosauqua, Fort Madison, Memphis, and Kahoka
254 PM CST Wed Nov 27 2019

...HIGH WIND WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON...

Northwest winds will continue to subside through late afternoon. 
However, a few gusts up to 40 MPH will be possible for the next 
few hours.

$$

IAZ042-054-066-068-ILZ001-002-007-009-015>018-024>026-034-035-
280000-
/O.CON.KDVN.HW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-191128T0000Z/
Dubuque-Jackson-Clinton-Scott-Jo Daviess-Stephenson-Carroll-
Whiteside-Rock Island-Henry IL-Bureau-Putnam-Mercer-Henderson-
Warren-Hancock-McDonough-
Including the cities of Dubuque, Maquoketa, Clinton, Davenport, 
Bettendorf, Galena, Freeport, Mount Carroll, Sterling, Moline, 
Rock Island, Geneseo, Princeton, Hennepin, Aledo, Oquawka, 
Monmouth, Carthage, and Macomb
254 PM CST Wed Nov 27 2019

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...West to northwest winds 25 to 40 mph with gusts between
  45 to 55 mph expected.

* WHERE...Portions of far eastern Iowa, and all of northwest 
  Illinois.

* WHEN...Through 6 PM CST today.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds may blow down trees, branches and 
  power lines. Power outages will be possible. Travel will be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles and along 
  north to south oriented roads. Outdoor decorations may get 
  damaged.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Strong winds are expected through the mid 
  afternoon before subsiding this evening.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

481 
WWUS73 KDVN 272351
NPWDVN

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
551 PM CST Wed Nov 27 2019

IAZ042-054-066-068-ILZ001-002-007-009-015>018-024>026-034-035-
280100-
/O.EXP.KDVN.HW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-191128T0000Z/
Dubuque-Jackson-Clinton-Scott-Jo Daviess-Stephenson-Carroll-
Whiteside-Rock Island-Henry IL-Bureau-Putnam-Mercer-Henderson-
Warren-Hancock-McDonough-
Including the cities of Dubuque, Maquoketa, Clinton, Davenport, 
Bettendorf, Galena, Freeport, Mount Carroll, Sterling, Moline, 
Rock Island, Geneseo, Princeton, Hennepin, Aledo, Oquawka, 
Monmouth, Carthage, and Macomb
551 PM CST Wed Nov 27 2019

...HIGH WIND WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 6 PM CST THIS EVENING...

Strong west to northwest winds will continue to diminish this
evening. Damaging winds are no longer expected, but winds may
still gust as high as 35 mph through 7 pm. 

$$

Sheets

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
549 AM CST Tue Nov 26 2019

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 201 AM CST Tue Nov 26 2019

This morning, temperatures across the area were in the 30s as high
clouds moved into the area. These high clouds were associated with
a strong wave over the Rocky Mountains this morning. This wave is
forecast to move across the area today and tonight and will lead
to a chance of severe weather and strong winds in the short term.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 201 AM CST Tue Nov 26 2019

Key Messages:

1. Strong storm system still on track to affect the upper
Midwest late today into Wednesday.

2.  The main impacts locally will be rain and strong winds
Tuesday night into Wednesday, where the potential remains
for gusts to 60 MPH.

3. Late season severe weather is possible this evening as the
strong system passes through the area.

Busy short term period during one of the busiest travel weeks of
the year is expected.

A deep trough with a strong wave is forecast to ejected across
the Plains today.  This wave is expected to be negatively tilted
as it moves into our area. Aloft, an impressive 130 kt H5 and 170
H25 jet is expected to pass just south of the area. The left exit
region of the H5 jet is expected to move through the area from
00z to 06z Wednesday. Lower, at H85 a 50 kt LLJ is also expected
late this afternoon into the evening. These strong dynamics have
manifested a 988 hPa surface low that is forecast to track from
TOP to ALO this evening. These strong dynamics have also elicited
return flow from the Gulf, with deep moisture advecting into the
warm sector of this system. Models have the H5 low closing and
deepening as it moves across IA from 00z to 06z tonight. At the
sfc, the pressure gradient on the backside of the low is expected
to tighten and lead to strong winds.

Winds...

Signal for a wind advisory is pretty clear cut, the main question
is whether or not we see gusts that exceed high wind warning
criteria. Most of the CAMs have a short lived 50 to 52 kt gust
window between 12z and 18z across the area. At the current time,
would like to see more runs with this before going with the HWW.

Severe...

SPC has the southern two tiers of counties in a slight risk and the
area south of a line from IA City, to Clinton IA to Dixon, IL in
a marginal risk for severe weather this evening. There is
definitely a severe weather threat from this system. This strong
system has impressive low level shear with values of 40 to 50 kts
in the 0-3km level and 35 to 40 kts in the 0-1km level are
commonly found between 00z and 06z across the area. This shear
coincides with the left exit region of the H5 jet. This will
likely lead to showers and storms in the warm sector. Currently
all the CAMs agree that CI occurs.

With the strong shear, updraft rotation will be likely from any
updraft that can maintain itself. There is a question as to whether
or not the updrafts can maintain themselves. Fast storm motion
and very high shear may not allow this to occur. Although, CAMs do
have UH tracks across the risk area in our CWA, so the CAMs
believe that updraft longevity may not be a problem. This will
need to be watched as well, especially once storms first form.

With the strong 0-0.5km shear (25 to 35kts), any sustained updraft
that can keep low level convergence maximized under that updraft
will have a threat of tornadoes. As is usual with storms this time
of year, CAPE is always the limiting factor. Looking at model
soundings in the warm sector, sfc parcels look to be capped, until
we get Tds in the mid 50s. At that time, the soundings look
uncapped through the low layers and even into the mid layers. So
the question currently is, where do the 55+ Tds reside when the
storms begin. The co-location of these dewpoints and updrafts will
likely be the determining factor for tornado potential today.

There is a consensus in the raw, non-mos, guidance that these
dewpoints will reside across the slight risk area. The question
is how far north do they get before the storms develop and move
across our area.  This will need to be closely monitored by later
shifts.

Rain...

Overall rainfall totals across the area look lower than what was
previously forecast. Three tenths of an inch to just over half an
inch is what we have forecast. Of course, those who have a
thunderstorm this evening, will likely see higher amounts.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
ISSUED AT 201 AM CST Tue Nov 26 2019

Key messages:

1) Low confidence on snow chances on Thursday as very dry airmass
will be in place.

2) Next potent storm system to bring widespread rain and a few
thunderstorms Friday-Saturday. Severe weather threat, if any, hinges
on the thermodynamics/instability as shear looks very strong again.

3) Chance of light snow or snowshowers under the wound-up closed low
on Saturday night through Sunday night.

Details:

Thursday and Thursday night: Low confidence on snow chances as
forecast soundings indicate very dry airmass in place, especially
the low levels. In fact, the ECMWF has slowed the arrival of any
light snow to Thursday night. If snow does occur it appears light
with any accumulation on the minor side. Highs will be in the 30s.

Friday through Saturday: Next powerful storm system (980 mb) to
bring heavy snowfall to portions of the northern Plains and into
northern MN/northern WI. For the dvn cwa widespread rain, a few
thunderstorms, and windy conditions look to be the impacts.  The
ECMWF/GFS suggests the widespread rains to occur Friday night into
Saturday morning. Too early to determine exact amounts but possibly
an inch in spots. As stated earlier the shear looks very strong
again but too far out to determine the amount of instability and any
severe potential. Highs should push into the 40s on Friday and 50s
on Saturday ahead of the occluded low.

Saturday night through Sunday night: Closed cold core upper low and
occluded surface low will track across IA and into the OH Valley.
Periodic light snow or snow showers are expected but accumulations
appear to be on the light side at this point in the game.

Early next week: Sprawling high pressure to bring dry but chilly
weather to the area. Highs in the 30s and lows in the 20s should be
common across the cwa. In fact, most of next week looks dry but cold.

Haase

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
ISSUED AT 548 AM CST Tue Nov 26 2019

Active weather period starting later today will bring IFR and MVFR
cigs to the area today and tonight. Thunderstorms are possible at
MLI and BRL as well between 00z and 06z, however low confidence
on them affecting the sites means left them out this iteration.
Wind shear will become a problem tonight before strong winds start
at the end of the TAF period.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...High Wind Watch from late tonight through Wednesday afternoon
     for Benton-Buchanan-Cedar-Clinton-Delaware-Des Moines-
     Dubuque-Henry IA-Iowa-Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-
     Keokuk-Lee-Linn-Louisa-Muscatine-Scott-Van Buren-Washington.

IL...High Wind Watch from late tonight through Wednesday afternoon
     for Bureau-Carroll-Hancock-Henderson-Henry IL-Jo Daviess-
     McDonough-Mercer-Putnam-Rock Island-Stephenson-Warren-
     Whiteside.

MO...High Wind Watch from late tonight through Wednesday afternoon
     for Clark-Scotland.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Gibbs
SHORT TERM...Gibbs
LONG TERM...Haase
AVIATION...Gibbs

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
355 AM CST Tue Nov 26 2019

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-271000-
Buchanan-Delaware-Dubuque-Benton-Linn-Jones-Jackson-Iowa-Johnson-
Cedar-Clinton-Muscatine-Scott-Keokuk-Washington-Louisa-Jefferson-
Henry IA-Des Moines-Van Buren-Lee-Jo Daviess-Stephenson-Carroll-
Whiteside-Rock Island-Henry IL-Bureau-Putnam-Mercer-Henderson-
Warren-Hancock-McDonough-Scotland-Clark-
355 AM CST Tue Nov 26 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
Illinois...northwest Illinois...west central Illinois...east
central Iowa...northeast Iowa...southeast Iowa and northeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A strong storm system will move through the area today and
tonight. Showers and thunderstorms are possible across the area.
Some of these storms could become severe with the main threats
being isolated tornadoes and damaging winds. The best chance for
severe weather is south of a line from Iowa City to Clinton to
Dixon.

Strong winds are expected to begin tonight across the area. A high
wind watch is in effect tonight into tomorrow. Sustained wind of 30
to 40 mph looks likely with gusts as high as 60 mph possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

Strong winds will be ongoing Wednesday morning and expected to
last through most of the day. Sustained wind of 30 to 40 mph looks
likely with gusts as high as 60 mph possible.

Thursday afternoon and Thursday night: Some light snow is expected
with minor accumulations possible.

Friday afternoon through Saturday:  Another powerful storm system
will move into the northern Plains. Widespread rain with some
thunderstorms are expected across the outlook area. It is too early
to determine the severe weather or heavy rain potential.

Saturday night and Sunday: The storm system will track across Iowa
and into the Ohio Valley. Periodic light snow or snow showers are
expected but any accumulations appear minor at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter and amateur radio activation is possible from 7pm to
midnight across the area.

Gibbs/Haase