Flash Flood Warning 66, NWS Quad Cities, IA

726 
WGUS73 KDVN 290540
FFSDVN

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
1240 AM CDT Sun Sep 29 2019

ILC161-IAC163-291030-
/O.CON.KDVN.FF.W.0066.000000T0000Z-190929T1030Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Rock Island IL-Scott IA-
1240 AM CDT Sun Sep 29 2019

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 AM CDT FOR
EASTERN ROCK ISLAND AND SCOTT COUNTIES...

At 1238 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated pockets of heavy rain across 
the warned area. Up to two inches of rain have already fallen. Flash 
flooding is expected to begin shortly, and is mostly likely along 
small creeks and streams. Some areas of concern are Duck Creek, 
Silver Creek, and Mud Creek. Rural roads may also be impacted by 
quickly rising water.

Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 are possible in the warned 
area overnight.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.

&&

LAT...LON 4151 9036 4148 9038 4146 9043 4144 9043
      4139 9055 4144 9079 4171 9078 4171 9029
      4153 9023

$$

RP Kinney

142 
WGUS73 KDVN 290807
FFSDVN

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
307 AM CDT Sun Sep 29 2019

IAC163-ILC161-290815-
/O.CAN.KDVN.FF.W.0066.000000T0000Z-190929T1030Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Rock Island IL-Scott IA-
307 AM CDT Sun Sep 29 2019

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR EASTERN ROCK ISLAND AND SCOTT COUNTIES
IS CANCELLED...

Additional heavy rain is no longer expected to pose a threat during 
the early morning hours. Do not drive through any lingering high 
water.

LAT...LON 4151 9036 4148 9038 4146 9043 4144 9043
      4139 9055 4144 9079 4171 9078 4171 9029
      4153 9023

$$

RP Kinney

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1057 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1056 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019

A large complex of thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall
was expanding northeast across the forecast area late this
evening. There has been an overall weakening trend the past hour.
However, with the heaviest rainfall trending over the west and
just northwest of the initial flash flood watch area, and the slow
moving complex likely to last several more hours, we have
expanded the watch another row of counties to the north in Iowa.
Left out Whiteside county as rain has been on the lighter side
there so far this evening and the area is less vulnerable due to
having missed the heavier rain totals over the past several days.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 244 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019

18Z surface data has the effective front running from northwest Ohio
through central Illinois and into southeast Kansas. Dew points north
of the front were in the 40s and 50s with 60s and 70s south of the
front.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019

A new flash flood watch will be issued for areas generally south of
a line from Walnut, IL to roughly Memphis, MO. This area was hit
hard with very heavy rain in the past 24 hours.

Through sunset isolated to scattered showers and storms will slowly
move into southeast Iowa from Missouri. The rest of the area should
remain quiet with possibly some patchy drizzle.

Tonight the next round of moisture with an upper level disturbance
moves through the area. Areal coverage of showers and thunderstorms
will increase during the evening with the potential for heavy
rainfall. The good news is that storms should move fairly quickly
and not move repeatedly over the same areas like last night.

Toward sunrise the front will begin moving back north and will
continue moving north during the day on Sunday. Areal coverage of
showers and storms will decrease during the day but isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms will persist.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019

Monday through Thursday: Models similar in gradually breaking down
the ridge as strong trough dives into the Midwest/Great Lakes. This
will send a strong cold front slowly southeast with numerous showers
and thunderstorms along this front, especially Tuesday night through
Thursday morning. With the Gulf wide open and PWAT's near 2 inches
the threat for torrential rain and flash flooding will continue.
With soils saturated this would aggravate any ongoing river flooding
or cause other rivers to rise into flood. Certainly can't rule out
severe weather either but at this point it appears low. Very warm
and capped on Monday ahead of this front with highs well into the
80s.

Thursday night through Friday night: Brief nw flow with cool and dry
weather expected, as Canadian high pressure builds into the Upper
Midwest/ Great Lakes.  Definitely will feel like fall with highs in
the upper 50s to lower 60s and lows dipping into the 40s, possibly
as low as the lower 40s in our northern cwa.

Next weekend: ECMWF/GFS similar in digging another healthy upper
level trough into the area but the GFS is slower. A strong cold
front will accompany this feature triggering more showers and
storms. Much cooler behind the front for a day or two.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019

Widespread MVFR to IFR conditions will remain in place over
eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois overnight through at least
Sunday morning due to low clouds north of a warm front that will
retreat northward through the region Sunday. A wave of showers and
thunderstorms will lift through the area this evening,
diminishing to just rain by late evening through overnight.
Confidence of thunderstorm coverage this evening is low and for
now have limited a mention of thunderstorms to the BRL terminal
forecast. Gradual improvement is expected Sunday afternoon with
another wave of thunderstorms mid to late afternoon mentioned in
prob30 groups.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 840 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019

Lower than expected flow on the La Moine River at Colmar has
resulted in a lowering of the expected crest from Moderate flood
stage to minor flood stage. The upper part of this river basin and
a large area south of a line from Fairfield through Burlington to
Princeton Illinois had widespread rainfall of 2 to nearly 6
inches yesterday and last night.

Elsewhere, mostly minor flooding continues along the Rock River,
Pecatonica River, and Green Rivers with evening forecasts trending
with a slightly slower rate of fall over the next several days.
Minor flooding continues along the Mississippi River at
Keithsburg, Gladstone, Burlington and Gregory Landing. Only minor
changes occurred with the evening forecast updates.

Another round of potentially heavy rainfall will impact the area
hard hit over the past several days and a Flash Flood Watch is in
effect overnight for far northeast Missouri, far southeast Iowa
and west central Illinois. This evening, a large MCS lifting E-NE
across northern MO into southern IA suggests another 1 to locally
2 inches of rain will fall over the forecast area. Latest trends
would indicate heavier totals may be setting up from southeast
through east central Iowa then into far northwest IL late tonight,
just northwest of areas hardest hit yesterday and last night.

The active pattern will continue through the middle of next week
with periodic rounds of thunderstorms producing heavy rainfall.
This rain would be falling on very saturated ground which may
cause additional flash flooding and aggravate on-going river
flooding or cause other rivers to rise.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Sunday for Des Moines-Henry IA-
     Lee-Louisa-Muscatine-Scott-Van Buren.

IL...Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Sunday for Bureau-Hancock-
     Henderson-Henry IL-McDonough-Mercer-Putnam-Rock Island-
     Warren.

MO...Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Sunday for Clark-Scotland.

&&

UPDATE...Sheets
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...Haase
AVIATION...Sheets
HYDROLOGY...Sheets

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
252 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-292000-
Buchanan-Delaware-Dubuque-Benton-Linn-Jones-Jackson-Iowa-Johnson-
Cedar-Clinton-Muscatine-Scott-Keokuk-Washington-Louisa-Jefferson-
Henry IA-Des Moines-Van Buren-Lee-Jo Daviess-Stephenson-Carroll-
Whiteside-Rock Island-Henry IL-Bureau-Putnam-Mercer-Henderson-
Warren-Hancock-McDonough-Scotland-Clark-
252 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
Illinois...northwest Illinois...west central Illinois...east
central Iowa...northeast Iowa...southeast Iowa and northeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A flash flood watch is in effect for areas roughly south of a
Sterling, Illinois to Memphis, Missouri line.

Thunderstorms will occur tonight that will be capable of producing
heavy rainfall. Areas in the watch area will be most susceptible
to flash flooding due to the saturated ground.

Area rivers are experiencing flooding. Please see the
latest Flood Statements and Flood Warnings for details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

Thunderstorms will be possible during the day on Sunday. No severe
storms are expected but locally heavy downpours will be possible.

Early Tuesday through Wednesday night, several rounds of showers
and thunderstorms are expected as a cold front slowly moves across
the area. This extended period of wet weather may further
aggravate any flooding issues.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed tonight. However, reports
of flooding and rainfall amounts over 1 inch would be appreciated.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
820 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019

IAC031-103-183-290145-
Cedar-Johnson-Washington-
820 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN CEDAR...
SOUTHEASTERN JOHNSON AND NORTHEASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES UNTIL 845
PM CDT...

At 819 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Riverside, or
11 miles southwest of Iowa City, moving northeast at 40 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Iowa City, West Branch, Coralville, North Liberty, Kalona, Solon,
University Heights, Riverside, Hills, Oakdale, Lake Macbride State
Park, Richmond, Newport, Sugar Bottom Camp Ground, Johnson County
Fairgrounds, West Overlook, Coralville Lake Dam Complex, Iowa City
Municipal Airport, Hills Access and Oasis.

This includes Interstate 80 in Iowa between mile markers 239 and 256.

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm. Minor flooding
of low lying areas, creeks, streams and urban areas is possible. If
you encounter water over a roadway, do not drive through it.

LAT...LON 4186 9153 4175 9123 4139 9154 4147 9179
TIME...MOT...LOC 0119Z 210DEG 34KT 4152 9163

Gross

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
852 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019

IAC011-095-103-113-290230-
Johnson-Benton-Linn-Iowa-
852 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN JOHNSON...
SOUTHEASTERN BENTON...LINN AND NORTHEASTERN IOWA COUNTIES UNTIL 930
PM CDT...

At 850 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Fairfax, or
near Cedar Rapids, moving north at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

This storm will be near...
  Cedar Rapids and Ely around 855 PM CDT.
  Bertram around 905 PM CDT.
  Palo around 910 PM CDT.
  Marion, Hiawatha, Robins and Toddville around 915 PM CDT.
  Alburnett and Whittier around 925 PM CDT.
  Central City, Coggon, Paris and Waubeek around 930 PM CDT.

This includes Interstate 380 between mile markers 6 and 35.

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm. Minor flooding
of low lying areas, creeks, streams and urban areas is possible. If
you encounter water over a roadway, do not drive through it.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 4230 9170 4230 9150 4225 9136 4219 9136
      4176 9162 4187 9195
TIME...MOT...LOC 0150Z 202DEG 28KT 4189 9173

Gross