Flash Flood Warning 32, NWS Quad Cities, IA

542 
WGUS73 KDVN 012001
FFSDVN

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
301 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2019

IAC057-020300-
/O.CON.KDVN.FF.W.0032.000000T0000Z-190602T0300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Des Moines IA-
301 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2019

...THIS IS A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR BURLINGTON IOWA...

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
SATURDAY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL DES MOINES COUNTY...

At 220 PM CDT, city of Burlington officials confirmed the failure of 
the temporary flood protection in downtown Burlington. The failure 
occurred on the south end of the temporary protection near the lift 
station. Areas affected are generally along and east of third street 
to the river. Flash flooding is already occurring.

The area affected is 4 to 6 blocks of downtown Burlington. The city 
asks that businesses check their basements for flooding.

THIS IS A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR downtown Burlington. This is a 
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW!

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Move to higher ground now. This is an extremely dangerous and
life-threatening situation. Do not attempt to travel unless you are
fleeing an area subject to flooding or under an evacuation order.

&&

LAT...LON 4078 9111 4082 9112 4082 9110 4078 9109

$$

08

164 
WGUS73 KDVN 012127
FFSDVN

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
427 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2019

IAC057-012135-
/O.CAN.KDVN.FF.W.0032.000000T0000Z-190602T0300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Des Moines IA-
427 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2019

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL DES MOINES COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

Water levels have stabilized behind the temporary flood protection 
and are no longer rising. The area is now covered by the long term 
major river flooding. Please continue to heed any remaining road 
closures.

LAT...LON 4078 9111 4082 9112 4082 9110 4078 9109

$$

08

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1234 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2019

...18z AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 303 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2019

Low pressure was located over eastern Minnesota and Wisconsin. Winds
locally were out of the southwest, maintaining the mild temps in the
mid 60s to lower 70s. It was also fairly humid with dewpoints in the
60s. It has been dry so far tonight, but there is a chance for
scattered showers, or an isolated storm, across the north into
early this morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2019

Today

Overview: There is a Slight risk for severe thunderstorms between
3 PM and 6 PM along and to the SE of a line from Galena, IL to
Fairfield, IA and a Marginal risk to the NW. The HREF mean has
2000-2500 J/kg of SBCAPE and 35-40 kts of deep layer shear, which
could support a few supercells if storms form. The primary
threats are damaging winds, large hail, and frequent lightning.

Storm coverage will probably be scattered at best with some
potential for upscale growth into line segments along the extreme
eastern and southeastern fringes of the CWA. For this reason,
held chances for rain at 40-50% for a large portion of the
outlook area.

Recent runs of the HRRR, HREF, and 3 km NAM have been taking the
strongest storm clusters, per updraft helicity swaths, slightly to
the northeast and southwest of the CWA, largely missing the area.
If these trends continue, may need to lower chances for showers
and storms even more.

Tonight

A cool and much drier post-frontal air mass will take hold with
temps bottoming out in the upper 40s NW to mid 50s SE.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2019

Northwest flow is forecast across the region through at least
midweek. Midweek weak ridging builds into the area. No significant
waves are forecast until the end of next week. However with the
northwest flow expect ripples through the flow to affect the area
and lead to showers and thunderstorms next week. Overall the long
term looks to be filled with beautiful sensible weather.

Sunday, highs in the upper 60s to low 70s, with clear skies and
dewpoints in the 40s to low 50s looks to be a splendid day to do
something outside.  Through Monday and Tuesday, temperatures begin
to increase each day but remain in the 70s through these days.

Tuesday the first of the weak waves is forecast to move into the
area.  Showers and thunderstorms become almost daily chances from
this point on in the long term period.  Throughout this period
CAPE/shear space suggests multicell or pulse storms. Weaker deep
layer shear means that overall severe threat would be tied to CAPE
more than shear. The signal for severe weather through this
period is weak. That said as we get closer to each day, I would
think that forecast skill will improve for severe weather as
mesoscale forcings will drive thunderstorm production.

Overall, blended dewpoints look to remain in the 60s through the
period.  This means that plentiful moisture will exist for heavy
rain from any storm that develops.  As far as heavy rain in the
sense of what we have had the last few weeks, the overall pattern
does not support that.  We are more likely to have more scattered
heavy rain events, that may impact smaller portions of the river
basins.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2019

Upper level wave and associated sfc frontal system passing acrs
eastern IA this afternoon, with mainly VFR level clouds and
veering sfc wind profiles to the west at 10-15 KTs. However, the
watch will continue for isolated to scattered thunderstorm
development mainly from 2-6 PM in the VCNTY of the TAF sites,
with some of them possibly being strong with hail and gusty
winds. A few of the latest convective allowing Hi-Res models
suggest that most of the storms may fire northeast or south of
most of the TAF sites this afternoon, with DBQ having the best
chance of a storm in the VCNTY closer to the main sfc low. But
with uncertainty on coverage and occurrence, will go with VCNTY
through late afternoon or early evening at most of the TAF sites.
Clearing with northwest winds tonight into Sunday morning behind a
cool frontal passage.   ..12..

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1042 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2019

A levee breech on the Missouri side of the Mississippi River has
allowed a significant amount of water to empty from the main river
channel up through Keokuk IA. That both lowered stages at Keokuk
through Gregory Landing but has closed two county roads in Clark
county Missouri.

For the main tributary rivers in the area the La Moine and Green
rivers are falling in Illinois. The Rock is nearing a crest at
Joslin while continuing to slowly rise at Moline. Both Joslin and
Moline are expected to crest this afternoon or tonight.

In Iowa a secondary pulse of water will push the Wapsipinicon
river near Dewitt slightly higher today before falling tonight.
The Cedar, North Skunk and Skunk rivers continue to fall. Upstream
of Coralville the Iowa river at Marengo is near crest. Downstream
of Coralville the Iowa river at Oakville is near crest with other
locations slowly falling.

Rainfall over the next 24 hours will be scattered and should
generally be 0.25 inch or less. Very localized amounts of 0.5 to 1
inch may occur in the stronger storms.

The areal flooding is slowly improving. Henderson county in
Illinois and Henry county in Iowa continue to report numerous road
closures and the warnings will be extended into Monday. Hancock
county in Illinois and Clark county in Missouri report much
improved conditions and those warnings will be allowed to expire
today.

The levee breach on the Green river near Deer Grove continues to
affect mainly Ag land in the advisory area.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Uttech
SHORT TERM...Uttech
LONG TERM...Gibbs
AVIATION...12
HYDROLOGY...08

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
350 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2019

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-020900-
Buchanan-Delaware-Dubuque-Benton-Linn-Jones-Jackson-Iowa-Johnson-
Cedar-Clinton-Muscatine-Scott-Keokuk-Washington-Louisa-Jefferson-
Henry IA-Des Moines-Van Buren-Lee-Jo Daviess-Stephenson-Carroll-
Whiteside-Rock Island-Henry IL-Bureau-Putnam-Mercer-Henderson-
Warren-Hancock-McDonough-Scotland-Clark-
350 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
Illinois...northwest Illinois...west central Illinois...east
central Iowa...northeast Iowa...southeast Iowa and northeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

There is a slight risk for severe thunderstorms south of a
Galena, Illinois to Fairfield, Iowa line between 2 PM and 6 PM.
However, storm coverage is expected to be relatively low for most
of the outlook area. The primary risks are damaging winds, large
hail, and frequent lightning.

Area rivers are experiencing flooding. Please see the
latest Flood Statements and Flood Warnings for details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

Thunderstorms are possible Tuesday through Friday. It is too soon
to determine the potential for severe weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening.

Uttech/Gibbs