Beach Hazards Statement 6, NWS Detroit, MI

730 
WHUS43 KDTX 270758
CFWDTX

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
358 AM EDT Tue Aug 27 2019

MIZ049-055-272000-
/O.CAN.KDTX.LS.Y.0023.000000T0000Z-190827T0900Z/
/O.CON.KDTX.BH.S.0006.190827T1200Z-190827T2000Z/
Huron-Sanilac-
358 AM EDT Tue Aug 27 2019

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS
MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...
...LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Detroit/Pontiac has cancelled the
Lakeshore Flood Advisory. 

* Beach Hazards...Strong onshore flow will lead to high wave 
  action and strong structural currents. 

* Location...Beaches from Caseville to Birch Beach including...

 Caseville...Sand Point...Port Crescent State Park...   Port
Austin...Harbor Beach...Port Sanilac...Lexington...   Birch Beach...

* Impacts...Shoreline erosion, damage to docks and minor flooding 
  along the shore is expected. Dangerous swimming conditions will 
  exist. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To learn more about dangerous waves and currents please visit
dangerouscurrents.org

&&


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Children should not enter the water unsupervised and without a 
certified flotation device. Caution should be used when in or near 
the water. Pay attention to flags and signs posted near beach access
points and lifeguard stations. 


To learn more about dangerous waves and currents please visit
dangerouscurrents.org

&&

$$

729 
WHUS43 KDTX 271454
CFWDTX

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1054 AM EDT Tue Aug 27 2019

MIZ049-055-271600-
/O.CAN.KDTX.BH.S.0006.000000T0000Z-190827T2000Z/
Huron-Sanilac-
1054 AM EDT Tue Aug 27 2019

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Detroit/Pontiac has cancelled the
Beach Hazards Statement. 

Winds have turned offshore and weakened. Wave activity will
gradually weaken over the next few hours and swim risk has 
decreased.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
705 PM EDT Mon Aug 26 2019

.AVIATION...

Showers will predominate into the tonight as warm frontal boundary
lifts north into the region. MVFR to IFR cigs can be expected with
IFR vsbys at times, especially this evening. There should be a break
in the rainfall potential late tonight into Tuesday morning before
additional sct-bkn activity shifts into the area along/in advance of
trailing cold front. This should be focused during part of the
afternoon. Post-frontal clearing is expected late in the forecast.

For DTW...Showers with cigs IFR to occasional MVFR expected into
tonight with winds veering from SE to S with warm frontal passage.
Winds will then become SW on Tuesday in advance of approaching cold
front which may bring additional showers and perhaps a thunderstorm
in the afternoon.

.DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* High for ceiling 5000 ft or less through Tuesday morning,
  medium in the afternoon.

* Low for ceilings of 200 ft or less and/or visibilities of 1/2sm or
  less.

* Low for thunderstorm Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 307 PM EDT Mon Aug 26 2019

DISCUSSION...
Sharp gradient of deep moisture working northward this afternoon
ahead of a warm front across the Ohio Valley as pwats go from about
60 inches across the Thumb to 1.75 near the Ohio border. Lead
edge of shower activity pushing across the M59 corridor lines up
with 1.50 inch pwats which is enough to overcome the drier low
levels. Showers will continue northward and increase in coverage and
intensity this evening and night as the warm front continues lifting
northward. Thunderstorm activity will be limited as K indices reach
into the low 30s but cape values near zero as sounding becomes moist
adiabatic up through the mid levels. This will lead to more potential
for heavy downpours in the stronger shower activity. Shower activity
will become more scattered after midnight from north to south behind
surface warm front. Lows tonight will be in the muggy low to mid
60s.

Large upper level closed low moving along just north of Canadian
border will push a cold slowly through the area during the day
Tuesday.  This front will clear the Saginaw Valley by early
afternoon and through the Detroit area by late evening.  Shower and
thunderstorm activity will gradually increase in coverage along the
front with diurnal heating as temps in the low 80s and dewpoints
near 70 produce cape values about 1.0-1.5k joules across the
eastern portion of the CWA in the afternoon.  Limiting factor to
strength and coverage of thunderstorms will be fairly warm mid
levels leading to long skinny cape producing weaker up drafts. Skies
will clear quickly behind cold frontal passage.

Cooler drier air will filter in Tuesday night through Wednesday
night on brisk westerly winds between large upper low to the north
and High pressure to the south.  Mid level trough axis dropping
through Wednesday afternoon may produce some instability showers
especially across the northern portions of the forecast areas as
high only reach the low to mid 70s.

Broad high pressure sets up over the central Mississippi valley
Thursday with SE MI under its northern edge keeping the region dry.
This high gets forced south as the southern edge of an upper level
trough drops out of Canada over the central Great lakes. The
associated surface low resides over the southern Hudson Bay with a
cold front draped south into the Great Lakes region. There is a bit
more consensus that the front will move across SE MI in the morning
hours Friday, approximately around 12Z. Currently models are keeping
the bulk of the heaviest rain over the northern lower peninsula with
SE MI seeing more scattered light to moderate rain through Friday
evening. Models are also beginning agree that the front will stall
south of the region over central Ohio.

The stalled front tries to slide north later Saturday which brings
rain chances back to SE MI through Sunday night. Given how far out
it is, there is still plenty of uncertainty as to the timing and
location of where the front will slide so PoP chances remain low in
the slight chance range.

MARINE...

Small Craft Advisories are in effect through Tuesday. The strong
southeast wind and high waves occur in stronger gradient flow
between departing high pressure and a large low pressure system
developing across central Canada into the Midwest. Gusts likely
reach 30 knots over the open waters of central and northern Lake
Huron by tonight accompanying showers. The wind eases up as a cold
front approaches during Tuesday but then becomes moderate westerly
behind the front through mid week. The wind field remains elevated
across the central Great Lakes as the large low pressure system
moves slowly near Hudson Bay while high pressure builds into the
Ohio valley. This high pressure system gradually takes over with
improved conditions during the late week period.

HYDROLOGY...

A very humid air mass will be drawn northward this evening in
response to developing low pressure over central Canada. The
incoming air mass contains high moisture content and will support
locally heavy downpours in stronger shower or thunderstorm activity.
Most likely time window for thunderstorm activity appears between 1
PM and 4 PM Tuesday along and just ahead of the cold front. Basin
average rainfall is expected to be around 0.75 inches through
Tuesday with isolated totals of 1 inch or more possible in stronger
thunderstorms and/or in locations that see multiple rounds of heavy
rainfall. This presents a chance of localized flooding of prone
urban locations if higher totals set up across these areas along
with minor increases in area streams and rivers. The cold front
sweeps showers and thunderstorms eastward by Tuesday evening.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for MIZ049-055-
     083.

     Lakeshore Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Tuesday for MIZ049-055.

     Lakeshore Flood Warning until 10 PM EDT this evening for MIZ063-070-
     076-083.

Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Tuesday for LHZ441>443.

Lake St Clair...NONE.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LEZ444.

&&

AVIATION.....DG
DISCUSSION...DRC/KDK
MARINE.......CB
HYDROLOGY....CB

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
452 AM EDT Mon Aug 26 2019

MIZ049-055-063-070-076-083-270900-
Huron-Sanilac-St. Clair-Macomb-Wayne-Monroe-
452 AM EDT Mon Aug 26 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Lakeshore Flood Warnings and Advisories along with Beach Hazard
Statements are in effect. Refer to the latest Coastal Hazard Message
for more details.

There is a chance of thunderstorms this afternoon through tonight as
a warm front lifts through the region. These storms are not expected
to be severe but may produce heavy rainfall as they track northeast
at 30 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

A chance of storms continues Tuesday as a strong cold front moves
through the region.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today and tonight.

MIZ047-048-053-054-060>062-068-069-075-082-270900-
Midland-Bay-Saginaw-Tuscola-Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer-Livingston-
Oakland-Washtenaw-Lenawee-
452 AM EDT Mon Aug 26 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a chance of thunderstorms this afternoon through tonight as
a warm front lifts through the region. These storms are not expected
to be severe but may produce heavy rainfall as they track northeast
at 30 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

A chance of storms continues Tuesday as a strong cold front moves
through the region.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today and tonight.

LCZ460-LEZ444-LHZ361>363-421-422-441>443-462>464-270900-
Lake St Clair-
Michigan Waters of Lake Erie from Detroit River to North Cape MI-
Lake Huron from 5NM east of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Lt
beyond 5 NM off shore-
Lake Huron from Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Point MI beyond 5NM
off shore-
Lake Huron from Sturgeon Point to Alabaster MI beyond 5NM off shore-
Outer Saginaw Bay SW of Alabaster to Port Austin MI to Inner Saginaw
Bay-Inner Saginaw Bay SW of Point Au Gres to Bay Port MI-
Port Austin to Harbor Beach MI-Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac MI-
Port Sanilac to Port Huron MI-
Lake Huron from Port Austin to Harbor Beach beyond 5NM Off Shore-
Lake Huron from Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac beyond 5NM Off Shore-
Lake Huron from Port Sanilac to Port Huron beyond 5NM Off Shore-
452 AM EDT Mon Aug 26 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Lake Erie, Lake
Huron and Lake St Clair.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Small Craft Advisories are in effect for the nearshore waters of Lake
Huron as well as the Michigan waters of Lake Erie. See the latest
Marine Weather Message for details.

There is a chance of thunderstorms this afternoon through tonight as
a warm front lifts through the region. These storms are not expected
to be severe but may produce heavy rainfall as they track northeast
at 25 knots.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Small Craft Advisory continues for the nearshore waters of Lake
Huron. See the latest Marine Weather Message for details.

A chance of storms continues Tuesday as a strong cold front moves
through the region.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today and tonight.

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.

DRK