Tornado Warning 22, NWS Des Moines, IA

002 
WWUS53 KDMX 242346
SVSDMX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
646 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2019

IAC109-250000-
/O.CON.KDMX.TO.W.0022.000000T0000Z-190925T0000Z/
Kossuth IA-
646 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2019

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN KOSSUTH COUNTY...
        
At 646 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located over Elmore, or 22 miles southeast of Fairmont, moving
east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Weather spotters reported a funnel cloud.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

Locations impacted include...
Ledyard.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 4350 9397 4340 9397 4337 9424 4346 9426
      4350 9425
TIME...MOT...LOC 2346Z 252DEG 39KT 4347 9407 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...1.00IN

$$

Beerends

887 
WWUS53 KDMX 242356
SVSDMX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
656 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2019

IAC109-250005-
/O.EXP.KDMX.TO.W.0022.000000T0000Z-190925T0000Z/
Kossuth IA-
656 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2019

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN KOSSUTH COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT
700 PM CDT...
    
The tornado threat has diminished and the Tornado Warning will be 
allowed to expire. However, large hail and damaging winds remain 
likely and a Severe Thunderstorm Warning remains in effect for far 
northeastern Kossuth County until 730 PM.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for north
central Iowa.

Remember, a Severe Thunderstorm Warning still remains in effect for
far northeastern Kossuth County until 730 PM.

LAT...LON 4350 9397 4340 9397 4337 9424 4346 9426
      4350 9425
TIME...MOT...LOC 2355Z 256DEG 39KT 4349 9396 

$$

Beerends

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
628 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2019

.DISCUSSION.../Tonight through Tuesday/
Issued at 347 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2019

The main focus of the forecast was on the severe weather threat
today into tonight. It's looking more likely to see only one
round of convection with the main cold front this evening.
Previously the hires models were pegging portions of northern Iowa
isolated convection within the WAA regime and this is still a
potential with some initiation over eastern Nebraska. However,
nothing has shown to be initiating via GOES-East meso-sector in
central Iowa and have lower confidence the CWA there will be
storms until past 23z when the cold front lights up across
northwest Iowa. Once this line of convection initiates, it'll
quickly progress south-southeast through the evening hours. The
window for severe storms seems very limited to the sunshine and
with sun setting much sooner, low confidence with the severe
weather potential past 03z tonight due to the instability waning
considerably.

Special OAX 24.19z sounding has 3800 J/kg surface based CAPE with
MLCAPE values just over 1800 J/kg and MLCIN is minimal. LCL
heights are around 3000ft with 0-6km shear ranging near 35 knots
and there is enough veering and low level shear that is conducive
for supercells. Surface dew points range in the upper 60s to
lower 70s and expecting the instability to continue to increase
this afternoon into the early evening providing a nice set up for
severe weather potential. Suspect with the convection over eastern
Nebraska and far western Iowa a watch is possible by as early as
22z. However, as mentioned the window for severe storms is
limited as the low level shear begins to weaken past 02z and so
does the significant instability as the line moves southeast. The
latest hires models continue suggest a more vigorous line develop
along the front in northwest Iowa. The threat of hail and damaging
winds, but still cannot rule out the tornado threat with decent
sickle-shaped hodographs per MCW to EST forecast soundings.

Wednesday into Friday, surface high pressure builds into the
state Wednesday and shifts east by Thursday. A fair amount of
mixing develops tomorrow afternoon with the CAA and high pressure
moving into Iowa. Have nudged up winds Wednesday. Next, WAA
develops late Thursday into Thursday night as the high pressure
shifts east and makes way for a surface low to track across MN/ND
and bring another cold front through sometime Friday. Dropped pops
Thursday night as much of the forcing and moisture is delayed
until past 06z Friday and then storms look to last for much of the
day Friday.

Saturday through Monday...A deep upper level trough of low
pressure moves into the western CONUS and places the forecast area
within southwest flow aloft during this time frame. A surface low
moves out of the Southern Rockies and into the Central Plains
Saturday night into Sunday providing plenty of moisture and lift
across the area for rain and thunderstorms. A boundary looks to
stall across the state into early next week and as the deep trough
finally kicks eastward by mid-week, this will setup an active
weather pattern Sunday into Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION.../For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening/
Issued at 628 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2019

Mainly VFR conditions with tempo MVFR cigs/vsbys in TSRA.  Cannot
rule out isold IFR conditions but so included that in a tempo group.
Breezy on Wednesday...especially north.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

DISCUSSION...Podrazik
AVIATION...FAB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
350 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2019

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>038-044>048-057>060-070-251100-
Emmet-Kossuth-Winnebago-Worth-Palo Alto-Hancock-Cerro Gordo-
Pocahontas-Humboldt-Wright-Franklin-Butler-Bremer-Sac-Calhoun-
Webster-Hamilton-Hardin-Grundy-Crawford-Carroll-Greene-Boone-
Story-Audubon-Guthrie-Dallas-Polk-Cass-
350 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central, western
and northern Iowa.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight

Severe storms are expected late this afternoon into the evening
with an enhanced threat of severe storms. All modes of severe
weather will be possible during this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Other strong storms are possible Thursday night into Friday and at
various times into the weekend and next week. The threat of severe
weather will be determined as the events approach.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is likely late this afternoon into the evening.

IAZ039-049-050-061-062-071>075-081>084-092>094-251100-
Black Hawk-Marshall-Tama-Jasper-Poweshiek-Adair-Madison-Warren-
Marion-Mahaska-Adams-Union-Clarke-Lucas-Taylor-Ringgold-Decatur-
350 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern and
eastern Iowa.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight

There is a slight risk of severe storms this evening with large
hail and damaging winds the main threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Other strong storms are possible Thursday night into Friday and at
various times into the weekend and next week. The threat of severe
weather will be determined as the events approach.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters may be needed this evening.

IAZ085-086-095>097-251100-
Monroe-Wapello-Wayne-Appanoose-Davis-
350 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast Iowa.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight

Strong storms are possible tonight with some hail and gusty winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Other strong storms are possible Thursday night into Friday and at
various times into the weekend and next week. The threat of severe
weather will be determined as the events approach.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed briefly tonight.

Small

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
611 PM CDT TUE SEP 24 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0607 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     SAC CITY                42.43N 95.00W
09/24/2019                   SAC                IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            FUNNEL CLOUD OBSERVED NW OF SAC CITY.

&&

BF