Tornado Warning 11, NWS Des Moines, IA

408 
WWUS53 KDMX 300110
SVSDMX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
810 PM CDT Wed May 29 2019

IAC127-300119-
/O.CAN.KDMX.TO.W.0011.000000T0000Z-190530T0130Z/
Marshall IA-
810 PM CDT Wed May 29 2019

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN MARSHALL COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
The tornadic thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out 
of the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 4221 9303 4227 9328 4243 9320 4230 9290
TIME...MOT...LOC 0109Z 208DEG 12KT 4227 9303 

$$

IAC075-083-300130-
/O.CON.KDMX.TO.W.0011.000000T0000Z-190530T0130Z/
Hardin IA-Grundy IA-
810 PM CDT Wed May 29 2019

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN HARDIN AND WEST CENTRAL GRUNDY COUNTIES...
    
At 809 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located 7 miles southeast of Eldora, moving northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

This dangerous storm will be near...
  Eldora around 830 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include New
Providence, Whitten, Union, Eldora Municipal Airport, Pine Lake State
Park and Owasa.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

If a tornado or other severe weather is spotted, report it to the
National Weather Service or your local nearest law enforcement agency
who will send your report. This act may save lives of others in the
path of dangerous weather.

&&

LAT...LON 4221 9303 4227 9328 4243 9320 4230 9290
TIME...MOT...LOC 0109Z 208DEG 12KT 4227 9303 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...0.00IN

$$

Ansorge

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
636 PM CDT Wed May 29 2019

...Updated 00z Aviation...

.SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Thursday/
Issued at 317 PM CDT Wed May 29 2019

.Short Term /Tonight through Thursday Night/...

Confidence: Medium to High

Main challenge continues the upper level system over the area.  Weak
convergence and wind shift along the trough extending from northwest
Iowa back southeast to the low near Des Moines...then east southeast
along the warm front should be the focus for some shower and
thunderstorm development this afternoon and evening. Though
parameters have been muted so far, both instability and convergence
continues to increase which may lead to possible landspouts or
funnel clouds late this afternoon/early evening.  Will be monitoring
for that through the remainder of the afternoon/early evening.
Overall there has been a lessening of available moisture, but even
with the lowering trends...PWATs are still running about an inch
over the east and north at this time. Current 1 to 3 hour flash
flood guidance is running about 1.25 inches.  Some of the showers
may produce brief locally heavy downpours with a quick half inch to
inch of rain in a few locations...but confidence on coverage and
overall location remains low so will not be issuing any headlines
today. Probably the more likely areas would be near the upper level
low over northwest Iowa and in the warm sector just east of Des
Moines where the weak warm front/stationary front is currently
situated. With the convection/showers being partly driven by daytime
heating...the activity will lessen after sunset tonight. With
saturated ground...possible rain...and light winds overnight have
added fog to the grids...especially over the north toward morning.
Lows tonight will drop into the lower 50s south to the upper 50s in
the south.  Thursday will see the upper level low drifting south
with additional afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms
redeveloping.  Clouds will continue over the south...so highs there
will be cooler than the northern areas with readings in the upper
70s north by late afternoon.  Lows Thursday night will fall back
into the mid to upper 50s.

.LONG TERM.../Thursday night through Wednesday/
Issued at 317 PM CDT Wed May 29 2019

.Long Term /Friday through Wednesday/...

Confidence: Medium

The upper level system will gradually shift south by Friday morning
with a weak ridge of high pressure settling moving over the area
through early afternoon. Height falls will already be occurring in
the afternoon hours with potential for afternoon cumulus as the
ridge slides to the east.  The Euro and GFS both suggest the
possibility of a passing shower during the daytime heating, though
confidence remains low at this time. However, with this year being
so wet and the soil moisture as high as it is, it is possible that
this might occur and we may need to update the forecast by tomorrow.
Highs Friday will be warmer than the past few days with afternoon
readings reaching the 80s during the day. Mild conditions will
continue into the weekend just ahead of the approaching northern
stream shortwave/cold front Saturday afternoon.  With MUCAPE pushing
1000 to 1500 J/KG by late day, a few storms may become strong. 0 to
6 km bulk shear is marginal through the day as well so widespread
problems are not expected.  Highs Saturday will remain in the lower
70s north to the lower 80s southwest.  Another mainly dry day is
anticipated on Sunday as the next ridge of high pressure quickly
traverses east.  For the remainder of the period, there are some
timing differences between the GFS and the Euro.  The GFS brings the
next chances for rain into the area already on Monday, with the Euro
model keeping the next trough west of the region through Tuesday.
Confidence in Days 6-7 thus has been lowered, though with a longwave
trough setting up over the Yucatan and some energy being pushed east
in the northern stream toward Iowa, it appears that during Monday to
Wednesday, there will be at least a chance for showers and
thunderstorms for one day...possibly two.  Highs during the period
will remain pleasant for early June, mainly in the 70s and 80s with
a trend toward the mid to upper 80s by Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION.../For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening/
Issued at 633 PM CDT Wed May 29 2019

Low pressure system will linger over Iowa through the period.
Ceilings will lower overnight, some locations with IFR conditions.
Elsewhere widespread low-end MVFR CIGs. Patchy fog could send
visibilities to around 1 mile in some locations, especially with
the saturated ground. Atmosphere will have plenty of moisture to
work with overnight that can restrict visibility.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 317 PM CDT Wed May 29 2019

Area flood warnings continue for the southeast where many county
roads remain impacted by yesterdays heavy rainfall.  Elsewhere,
river flood warnings are also in effect with impacts expected
through this week and into the weekend for some locations. Any
additional rainfall over the next 7 days will prolong the soggy
conditions and high soil moisture across the region.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...Krull
HYDROLOGY...REV

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
336 PM CDT Wed May 29 2019

IAZ004-005-015-023>025-033>037-044>049-059>062-073>075-084>086-
095>097-302045-
Emmet-Kossuth-Palo Alto-Pocahontas-Humboldt-Wright-Sac-Calhoun-
Webster-Hamilton-Hardin-Crawford-Carroll-Greene-Boone-Story-
Marshall-Dallas-Polk-Jasper-Poweshiek-Warren-Marion-Mahaska-Lucas-
Monroe-Wapello-Wayne-Appanoose-Davis-
336 PM CDT Wed May 29 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Iowa.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight

Scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening.
Isolated severe storms may occur with quarter sized hail, 60 mph
winds and a funnel cloud or landspout tornado possible.

River Flood Watches and Warnings are in effect for parts of the
area. Please refer to the National Weather Service website at
weather.gov/desmoines for further details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Scattered thunderstorms are forecast for Saturday and again early
next week. At this time, the threat for severe weather appears
low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

IAZ006-007-016-017-026>028-038-039-050-057-058-070>072-081>083-
092>094-302045-
Winnebago-Worth-Hancock-Cerro Gordo-Franklin-Butler-Bremer-Grundy-
Black Hawk-Tama-Audubon-Guthrie-Cass-Adair-Madison-Adams-Union-
Clarke-Taylor-Ringgold-Decatur-
336 PM CDT Wed May 29 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Iowa.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight

A few thunderstorms are possible this afternoon. The threat for
severe weather is low.

River Flood Watches and Warnings are in effect for parts of the
area. Please refer to the National Weather Service website at
weather.gov/desmoines for further details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Scattered thunderstorms are forecast for Saturday and again early
next week. At this time, the threat for severe weather appears
low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

REV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
723 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0718 PM     TORNADO          3 WSW DEEP RIVER        41.56N 92.43W
05/29/2019                   POWESHIEK          IA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ***1 INJURY*** INJURY REPORTED AT A PREVIOUS
            FARMSTEAD WITH DAMAGE. DAMAGE TO AN
            OUTBUILDING, TORNADO HAD LIFTED AND WAS BACK
            ON THE GROUND.

&&

MJB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
731 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0728 PM     TORNADO          1 ENE DEEP RIVER        41.59N 92.36W
05/29/2019                   POWESHIEK          IA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TORNADO HAD LIFTED, NOW BACK ON THE GROUND.

&&

MJB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
735 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0734 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     2 N RADCLIFFE           42.34N 93.43W
05/29/2019                   HARDIN             IA   PUBLIC

            FUNNEL CLOUD OBSERVED FROM AMES.

&&

ANSORGE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
736 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0736 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     5 NNE CLEMONS           42.18N 93.12W
05/29/2019                   MARSHALL           IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

ANSORGE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
739 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     2 S BUCKEYE             42.39N 93.38W
05/29/2019                   HARDIN             IA   PUBLIC

            VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

ANSORGE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
742 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0735 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     4 NE RADCLIFFE          42.36N 93.38W
05/29/2019                   HARDIN             IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            BRIEF FUNNEL CLOUD.

&&

ANSORGE