Severe Thunderstorm Warning 142, NWS Des Moines, IA

644 
WWUS53 KDMX 171619
SVSDMX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
1119 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019

IAC009-171628-
/O.CAN.KDMX.SV.W.0142.000000T0000Z-190717T1630Z/
Audubon IA-
1119 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN AUDUBON COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the warned 
area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 PM CDT for
southwestern and west central Iowa.

LAT...LON 4173 9443 4161 9433 4128 9450 4132 9474
      4151 9469 4168 9467
TIME...MOT...LOC 1618Z 265DEG 33KT 4175 9450 4161 9439 4140 9451 

$$

IAC001-029-077-171630-
/O.CON.KDMX.SV.W.0142.000000T0000Z-190717T1630Z/
Cass IA-Guthrie IA-Adair IA-
1119 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1130 AM CDT
FOR EAST CENTRAL CASS...SOUTHERN GUTHRIE AND NORTHWESTERN ADAIR
COUNTIES...

At 1118 AM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Lake Panorama to near Panora to 7 miles northwest
of Greenfield, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Public. Storms have a history of producing damaging winds 
         back into Shelby and western Audubon Counties. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Guthrie Center, Adair, Fontanelle, Casey, Menlo and Nodaway Park. 

This includes Interstate 80 between mile markers 74 and 88.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4173 9443 4161 9433 4128 9450 4132 9474
      4151 9469 4168 9467
TIME...MOT...LOC 1618Z 265DEG 33KT 4175 9450 4161 9439 4140 9451 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Curtis

951 
WWUS53 KDMX 171624
SVSDMX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
1124 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019

IAC001-029-077-171634-
/O.EXP.KDMX.SV.W.0142.000000T0000Z-190717T1630Z/
Cass IA-Guthrie IA-Adair IA-
1124 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL CASS...SOUTHERN
GUTHRIE AND NORTHWESTERN ADAIR COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 1130 AM CDT...
            
The storms which prompted the warning have weakened below severe
limits, and no longer pose an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However gusty
winds are still possible with these thunderstorms.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 PM CDT for
southwestern and west central Iowa.

LAT...LON 4173 9443 4161 9433 4128 9450 4132 9474
      4151 9469 4168 9467
TIME...MOT...LOC 1624Z 270DEG 33KT 4175 9443 4161 9432 4140 9444 

$$

Curtis

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
554 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019

.DISCUSSION.../Today through Tuesday/
Issued at 420 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019

A very conditional forecast through tonight as westerlies lie just
north of the state. Current convection in South Dakota is racing
ESE toward Iowa and will likely enter the northwest toward
daybreak. CAMs have been somewhat scattered in the progression of
this convection with some dipping southeast into Iowa while other
solution keep in north of Iowa. Given the moisture gradient at
850mb that drops southeast into the state, would be surprised to
see the convection end up in Iowa this morning and remaining
somewhat healthy given the decent instability and low level flow
into the storms. The evolution of these storms will have large
impact on subsequent convection later today into tonight via
outflow placement and best low level convergence. Models indicate
a strong southwest low level jet will develop again this evening
and feed any storms with plenty of moisture and instability. At
this point, most model output keeps the bulk of convection in
northeast Iowa and adjacent areas of Minnesota and Wisconsin.
Training appears likley with strong southwest inflow into storm
that will be moving ESE overnight. The potential for heavy rain is
discussed below. The severe threat will be decent this afternoon
with very strong instability and likely some localized low level
shear with outflow boundaries somewhere in the state. Large hail
and damaging winds will be possible with any storms with some
threat of a tornado or two with any initial development.
Otherwise, southern Iowa will begin to bake today with highs into
the 90s and rising dewpoints. The northern extent of the heat
today will be influenced by any convective outflow but I80/Highway
30 corridor seems a good first bet.

Convection overnight will be fueled by a 40-50kt low level jet and
ample moisture and should sustain storms north of a quasi-
stationary boundary. The best threat at this point remains
northeast Iowa. Otherwise, with rising heights, any boundary is
forecast to move north on Thursday with the warm sector
overspreading all of Iowa. Heat and humidity will expand in all
areas with a heat advisory likely needed across northern Iowa for
Thursday into Friday. The boundary begins to drift southward by
later Friday and may produce convection into far northern Iowa on
Friday night. The front will also bring relief from the heat
across the north on Saturday but the south should still see one
more day of heat. A more substantial push of cooler air is
expected by the later half of the weekend with more seasonable
readings along with less humidity. Thunderstorm chances will
linger into Sunday with cooler and drier weather into early next
week.

&&

.AVIATION.../For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning/
Issued at 552 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019

Mainly widespread VFR conditions for much of the forecast period.
However, scattered storms will produce MVFR to IFR conditions in
and close to the storms. Winds will generally be from the south to
southeast with some gusts during the afternoon.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 420 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019

Still plenty of unknown for this hydro forecast as morning
convection will influence low level boundary placement. However,
latest guidance suggest the a strong low level jet will impinge
upon a boundary across northeast Iowa by this evening with strong
convection developing. The low level jet will supply ample
moisture with strong moisture transport into the boundary. The
high PWATs of around 1.5" and training effect may lead to training
storms and with rainfall rates of up to 2 inches per hour, some
flash flooding will be possible tonight, especially in urban
areas. A flash flood watch has been issued in the most likely area
given current information although this may change during the day
depending on the evolution of the ongoing convection.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Excessive Heat Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT
Saturday for IAZ044>050-057>062-070>075-081>086-092>097.

Excessive Heat Watch from Thursday afternoon through Saturday
evening for IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039.

Flash Flood Watch from this evening through Thursday morning for
IAZ006-007-017-027-028-039.

&&

DISCUSSION...Cogil
AVIATION...Cogil
HYDROLOGY...Cogil

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
1047 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019

IAZ044>050-057>062-070>075-081>086-092>097-181600-
Crawford-Carroll-Greene-Boone-Story-Marshall-Tama-Audubon-Guthrie-
Dallas-Polk-Jasper-Poweshiek-Cass-Adair-Madison-Warren-Marion-
Mahaska-Adams-Union-Clarke-Lucas-Monroe-Wapello-Taylor-Ringgold-
Decatur-Wayne-Appanoose-Davis-
1047 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Iowa.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight

Thunderstorms are expected today into tonight. Severe thunderstorms
with large hail and damaging winds are possible through early
evening for portions of the outlook area. Locally heavy rain is
also possible.

An Excessive Heat Warning is in effect for the area through
tonight. Please refer to the National Weather Service website at
weather.gov/desmoines for further details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Isolated storm chances return Saturday night into Sunday. The
severe weather threat appears low at this time.

An Excessive Heat Warning is in effect for the area Thursday
through Saturday. Please refer to the National Weather Service
website at weather.gov/desmoines for further details.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters may be needed today into tonight.

IAZ004-005-015-016-023>026-033>038-181600-
Emmet-Kossuth-Palo Alto-Hancock-Pocahontas-Humboldt-Wright-
Franklin-Sac-Calhoun-Webster-Hamilton-Hardin-Grundy-
1047 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Iowa.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight

Scattered thunderstorms will be possible today into tonight.
There is a slight risk of severe storms with large hail and
damaging through early evening. Locally heavy rain also is
possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Isolated storm chances return Saturday into Sunday. The severe
weather threat appears low at this time.

An Excessive Heat Watch is in effect for the area Thursday
through Saturday. Please refer to the National Weather Service
website at weather.gov/desmoines for further details.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed today into tonight.

IAZ006-007-017-027-028-039-181600-
Winnebago-Worth-Cerro Gordo-Butler-Bremer-Black Hawk-
1047 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Iowa.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight

Scattered thunderstorms will be possible today into tonight.
There is a slight chance of severe storms with large hail and
damaging winds the main concern with best threat area north of
Interstate 80. Heavy rain is also possible.

A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for the area tonight. Please
refer to the National Weather Service website at
weather.gov/desmoines for further details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Isolated storm chances return Saturday night into Sunday. The
severe weather threat appears low at this time.

An Excessive Heat Watch is in effect for the area Thursday
through Saturday. Please refer to the National Weather Service
website at weather.gov/desmoines for further details.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters activation may be needed today into tonight.

REV

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
843 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019

IAZ023-033-034-044-045-171445-
Calhoun IA-Sac IA-Pocahontas IA-Carroll IA-Crawford IA-
843 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019

!**...Gusty Winds and Small Hail...

At 839 AM CDT, the public reported strong thunderstorms along a line
extending from near Truesdale to near Ida Grove to 9 miles north of
Moorhead. Movement was east at 40 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Carroll, Denison, Sac City, Pocahontas, Rockwell City, Lake City,
Manson, Manning, Lake View, Odebolt, Black Hawk Lake, North Twin
Lake, South Twin Lake, Schleswig, Wall Lake, Manilla, Schaller,
Pomeroy, Fonda and Early.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 AM CDT for
central, north central, northwestern and west central Iowa.

LAT...LON 4221 9567 4221 9532 4247 9532 4248 9539
      4256 9539 4256 9492 4274 9491 4273 9444
      4247 9444 4247 9440 4221 9455 4221 9463
      4216 9463 4186 9507 4196 9567
TIME...MOT...LOC 1339Z 277DEG 35KT 4275 9527 4231 9552 4206 9590

Curtis

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
934 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019

IAZ023-034>036-044>048-057>059-171530-
Hamilton IA-Story IA-Guthrie IA-Boone IA-Audubon IA-Calhoun IA-
Webster IA-Greene IA-Pocahontas IA-Carroll IA-Crawford IA-Dallas IA-
934 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019

...Strong Winds Continue...

At 932 AM CDT, trained weather spotters reported strong thunderstorms
along a line extending from near Manson to Lake City to 7 miles west
of Manning. Movement was east at 45 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms. Strong winds and severe wind potential will continue
to be the main concern with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Fort Dodge, Boone, Carroll, Webster City, Perry, Jefferson, Rockwell
City, Ogden, Lake City, Manson, Manning, Coon Rapids, Jewell
Junction, Glidden, Gowrie, North Twin Lake, Fort Dodge Regional
Airport, South Twin Lake, Boone Speedway and Lake Panorama.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 AM CDT for
central, north central, northwestern and west central Iowa.

LAT...LON 4221 9489 4221 9486 4223 9486 4227 9480
      4274 9452 4273 9444 4264 9444 4264 9397
      4256 9397 4256 9350 4247 9350 4214 9367
      4172 9431 4190 9536
TIME...MOT...LOC 1432Z 278DEG 39KT 4255 9457 4226 9471 4194 9521

Curtis

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1051 AM CDT WED JUL 17 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1049 AM     TSTM WND GST     3 N GUTHRIE CENTER      41.72N 94.50W
07/17/2019  M50 MPH          GUTHRIE            IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HEAVY RAIN, PEA SIZED HAIL AND ESTIMATED 50
            MPH WINDS. NO DAMAGE REPORTED.

&&