Flash Flood Warning 23, NWS Des Moines, IA

168 
WGUS73 KDMX 290231
FFSDMX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
931 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019

IAC007-051-135-179-185-290645-
/O.CON.KDMX.FF.W.0023.000000T0000Z-190929T0645Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Monroe IA-Wapello IA-Davis IA-Wayne IA-Appanoose IA-
931 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 145 AM CDT FOR
MONROE...WAPELLO...DAVIS...SOUTHEASTERN WAYNE AND APPANOOSE
COUNTIES...

At 929 PM CDT, local law enforcement reported flash flooding north 
of Bloomfield in Davis County... and in areas around Seymour and 
Promise City in Wayne County. A widespread 1 to 3 inches of rain 
have fallen.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.

Please report flooding to your local law enforcement agency when you
can do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 4078 9326 4089 9310 4116 9285 4116 9218
      4060 9218 4058 9347

$$

Kotenberg

953 
WGUS73 KDMX 290356
FFSDMX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
1056 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019

IAC007-051-135-179-185-290406-
/O.CAN.KDMX.FF.W.0023.000000T0000Z-190929T0645Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Monroe IA-Wapello IA-Davis IA-Wayne IA-Appanoose IA-
1056 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR MONROE...WAPELLO...DAVIS...
SOUTHEASTERN WAYNE AND APPANOOSE COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

The heavy rain has ended. Flood waters have receded. Flooding is no
longer expected to pose a threat. Please continue to heed any
remaining road closures. 

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the 
dangers of flooding. Never drive around barricades.

LAT...LON 4078 9326 4089 9310 4116 9285 4116 9218
      4060 9218 4058 9347

$$

Kotenberg

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
633 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019

...Updated for 00z Aviation Discussion...

.DISCUSSION.../Tonight through Saturday/
Issued at 401 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019

There is plenty of active weather to discuss into next week with
precip trends tonight, unseasonal heat and humidity Monday, and
then heavy rain concerns into midweek. Currently a short wave
continues to lift through the Plains toward IA with both kinematic
and thermodynamic forcing contributing to scattered showers and
thunderstorms. This is also fairly close to stratus north of a
KS/MO warm front, which should both lift northward through IA
later tonight. This should result in scattered showers and storms
into tomorrow, and also possibly some drizzle outside of those
episodes. The severe weather potential is low due to limited shear
and instability. With dewpoints reaching near 70 later tomorrow,
this will result in unseasonally warm overnight temps and little
diurnal drop Sunday Night, which may approach record max mins in
spots.

By Monday, IA should be well into the warm sector with stratus
either dissipating or lifting northward. With brisk SSW winds,
this should be supportive of mixing/warming so have boosted highs
a bit further through the 80s, possibly approaching 90 in spots,
which will push heat indices into the middle 90s during peak
heating. Although not headline criteria, those participating in
outdoor activities should be prepared for the potential of late
season heat impacts.

Sensible weather effects from the approaching western long wave
trough will then begin into Monday Night as the associated surface
front enters the state from the northwest. Strong, persistent
moisture transport aloft combined with associated forcing of short
waves moving along the front will interact with the frontal
convergence and atypically moist airmass to produce periods of
showers and storms with moderate to heavy rainfall. The airmass
will be very conducive for heavy rains for any time of year, much
less late Sep/early Oct, with precipitable waters hovering around
two inches and warm cloud depths of 4-4.5km. By late Tue 00z EC
ensembles were showing 80 plus percent of their members with
climatologically record PWs, including max or near max specific
humidities and integrated water vapor transport. With mean winds
parallel to the slow moving front, rainfall amounts of several
inches may occur as the front will take from Mon Night to at least
Tue evening to move NW to SE through the forecast area. Flash
Flood Watches could very well be issued in the coming days.
Regarding river flood expectations, current 120 hour contingency
forecasts suggest only a few sites making it to flood stage with
mainly within bank rises, and those locations are mainly across
southern and eastern Iowa.

Cooler, mainly drier conditions, much more fall-like, can be
expected to end the forecast period with upper level ridging and
northern Plains surface high pressure Thu Night into Fri. Precip
chances do return to some degree around Saturday, but confidence
is low due to typical timing issues at that range. Long wave
trough timing by midday Sat ranges from CMC at the Great Lakes to
GFS still back in ID.

&&

.AVIATION.../For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening/
Issued at 629 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019

High confidence in widespread showers and thunderstorms spreading
from south to north across Iowa for the rest of this evening...
followed by another round of showers and potentially thunderstorms
Sunday afternoon and evening.

Resultingly... high confidence in MVFR to IFR CIGs through much of
the TAF period at all sites. Not enough confidence for LIFR
CIGS...but will be monitoring through the night. Greatest chance
of LIFR would be near 10Z Sun to 13Z Sun.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...Small
AVIATION...Kotenberg

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
421 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-
081>086-092>097-292130-
Emmet-Kossuth-Winnebago-Worth-Palo Alto-Hancock-Cerro Gordo-
Pocahontas-Humboldt-Wright-Franklin-Butler-Bremer-Sac-Calhoun-
Webster-Hamilton-Hardin-Grundy-Black Hawk-Crawford-Carroll-Greene-
Boone-Story-Marshall-Tama-Audubon-Guthrie-Dallas-Polk-Jasper-
Poweshiek-Cass-Adair-Madison-Warren-Marion-Mahaska-Adams-Union-
Clarke-Lucas-Monroe-Wapello-Taylor-Ringgold-Decatur-Wayne-
Appanoose-Davis-
421 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Iowa.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Non-severe thunderstorms are expected through tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Thunderstorms are expected on Sunday with a few strong storms
possible late in the day or in the evening.

Periods of rain and storms are likely from late Monday through
early Thursday. Widespread moderate to heavy rain is anticipated
and may lead to area river flooding and potential flash flooding.
A few strong storms cannot be ruled out, especially late Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not likely at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
715 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019

IAZ086-097-290100-
Wapello IA-Davis IA-
715 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019

...Dime to Penny Size Hail Possible...

At 715 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Bloomfield, moving northeast at 20 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Bloomfield, Eldon, Pulaski, Floris and Bloomfield Municipal Airport.

LAT...LON 4071 9253 4094 9237 4091 9218 4064 9218
      4061 9220
TIME...MOT...LOC 0015Z 203DEG 17KT 4074 9236

Kotenberg

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
732 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019

IAZ084>086-095>097-290130-
Wapello IA-Appanoose IA-Wayne IA-Lucas IA-Davis IA-Monroe IA-
732 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019

...Heavy rainfall may lead to localized flooding and ponding of
water on roadways...

At 730 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Albia to 6 miles north of Green City.
Movement was northeast at 30 mph.

Rainfall amounts of one to two inches will be possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Ottumwa, Centerville, Albia, Bloomfield, Eddyville, Ottumwa
Industrial Airport, Lake Sundown, Rathbun Lake, Eldon, Seymour,
Moravia, Agency, Moulton, Lovilia, Mystic, Cincinnati, Blakesburg,
Pulaski, Drakesville and Kirkville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall may lead to localized flooding. Do not drive
your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4116 9300 4116 9218 4060 9218 4058 9338
TIME...MOT...LOC 0030Z 213DEG 25KT 4099 9289 4035 9298

Kotenberg