Special Weather Statement, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
635 PM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019

...Updated aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1145 AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019

Quiet across SW Kansas late this morning, with only some
scattered cirrus and mid cloud. With downsloping SW winds
increasing through the afternoon, and gusting to near 30 mph,
temperatures will soar this afternoon despite local cooling from
minimal cloud cover. Increased max temperature grids 1-2 degrees
across the board, with many locations reaching 100-103. Also
issued a heat advisory across the SE zones 1-7 pm, where lingering
humidity will push the heat index over 105 for several hours this
afternoon.

Convection evolution this afternoon is complex and a bit
perplexing. A strong 596 dm upper high is centered just east of
Medicine Lodge at midday. Apparently, a weak disturbance is
rotating around this anticyclone, northward through the Texas
panhandle, that has already initiated weak convection near
Amarillo. HRRR and other CAMs, with support from 12z GFS, develop
scattered convection across SW KS starting around 3 pm. Increased
pops to scattered category for the central/eastern zones after 3
pm. Storms will form in a very hot, well-mixed boundary layer with
downburst wind gusts to 60 mph being the primary threat.

Midlevel clouds and scattered showers/embedded thunder will
persist much of the night, especially N/NE zones, fed by the low
level jet. Much more organized MCS with attendant hail/wind threat
is expected to remain well to the north of SW KS tonight, focusing
on Nebraska.

MCS-outflow reinforced cold front is expected to be along the
Kansas/Nebraska border at sunrise Wednesday. The front is shown by
all models to make steady southward progress through Kansas during
the daylight hours Wednesday. 12z NAM/GFS/extended HRRR show
excellent agreement showing strong convective initiation along the
cold front across SW KS around 3-4 pm. With the added focus of
the boundary, CAPE/shear will support strong to marginally severe
convection with locally very heavy rain. SPC 5% wind/hail
probability for the entire CWA is justified, and increased severe
risks may be assigned once the cold front focusing mechanism is
nailed down more specifically. The heat will relax Wednesday, but
temperatures will still have time to reach the mid to upper 90s
ahead of the incoming front across the southern counties.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019

Heat relief is expected on Thursday behind the frontal boundary.
12z NAM shows the strongest cooler air wedge coming into SW KS,
perhaps enforced by a spurious closed low passing over Kansas
aloft. 12z GFS is not far behind, forecasting surface temperatures
holding in the 70s most of the day for most zones, with some 80s
near the Oklahoma/Colorado borders and even upper 60s NE zones.
Model guidance is trending strongly cooler for Thursday, but much
of this cooling is a function of holding cloud cover through the
daylight hours. If the clouds can hold through 5-6 pm, then the
coolest guidance will verify. NBM appeared too warm in the mid to
upper 80s, and trimmed substantially, but stayed above the cool
guidance. Regardless, Thursday will be the most comfortable day we
have seen in some time.

Kept modest pops in the grids Thursday and Thursday night as the
front meanders and slowly washes out. However, models are trending
eastward with the most significant rainfall during this period,
focusing in central/eastern Kansas.

A warming trend will occur Friday through Sunday. The only
disparity in the models is exactly how quickly this will occur.
Model consensus and 12z MEX guidance suggests afternoon
temperatures will return to near 100 on Sunday. 12z ECMWF supports
this thinking, with the highest thickness values on Sunday,
enhanced by prefrontal compressional heating ahead of the next
cold front scheduled for Monday. Rain chances will also dwindle
during the Friday through Sunday time range, with most locations
remaining dry.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 635 PM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019

Widely scattered to isolated thunderstorms will continue into the
early evening before diminishing due to the loss of daytime
heating. The storms will mainly be in the vicinity of Dodge City
and Hays. A cold front will move south through western and central
Kansas during the day Wednesday. Widely scattered thunderstorms
are expected to develop again along the front. VFR to MVFR cigs
may develop in the Hays area toward the end of the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  71  96  66  79 /  20  30  60  30
GCK  67  95  64  79 /  30  20  60  30
EHA  68  95  64  89 /  20  20  60  20
LBL  70  97  65  90 /  20  20  60  20
HYS  69  89  65  79 /  30  50  60  40
P28  73  98  69  87 /  10  20  50  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ066-081-088>090.

&&

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Gerard

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
350 AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-210900-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
350 AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019 /250 AM MDT Tue Aug 20 2019/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...south
central...southwest and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Day 1 Discussion
----------------

Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible as early
as 4 pm.

Day 1 Hazards
-------------
* Thunderstorm wind damage: Marginal risk
* Lightning: Limited risk
* Excessive heat: Elevated risk

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Days 2-7 Discussion
-------------------

Thunderstorms may develop Wednesday evening, with probability
increasing though Thursday.

Days 2-7 Hazards
----------------
* Wednesday
  - Lightning: Elevated risk
  - Severe thunderstorm: Marginal risk
  - Excessive heat: Limited risk

* Thursday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

* Friday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Excessive heat: Limited risk

* Saturday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Excessive heat: Limited risk

* Sunday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Excessive heat: Limited risk

* Monday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Excessive heat: Elevated risk

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

For more details visit our webpage http://weather.gov/ddc/ehwo

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
538 PM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019

KSZ078>080-202345-
Kiowa KS-Edwards KS-Ford KS-
538 PM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN FORD...KIOWA AND
EDWARDS COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM CDT...

At 538 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Mullinville, moving northeast at 15 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Kinsley, Bucklin, Greensburg, Haviland, Mullinville, Ford, Offerle,
Fellsburg, Windhorst, Centerview and Belvidere.

LAT...LON 3748 9955 3761 9993 3791 9956 3794 9956
      3806 9945 3775 9902 3742 9905 3739 9913
      3739 9935
TIME...MOT...LOC 2238Z 236DEG 12KT 3758 9955

FINCH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
622 PM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019

KSZ044-210015-
Lane KS-
622 PM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN LANE COUNTY UNTIL
715 PM CDT...

At 621 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Shields, moving north at 10 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Dighton, Pendennis and Shields.

LAT...LON 3870 10025 3849 10026 3846 10049 3870 10060
TIME...MOT...LOC 2321Z 168DEG 8KT 3855 10040

FINCH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
630 PM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019

KSZ066-210030-
Stafford KS-
630 PM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN STAFFORD COUNTY
UNTIL 730 PM CDT...

At 630 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles north of Zenith, moving north at 10 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northeastern
Stafford County.

LAT...LON 3803 9861 3826 9859 3826 9847 3801 9847
TIME...MOT...LOC 2330Z 192DEG 8KT 3809 9849

FINCH

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