Special Weather Statement, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
603 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2019

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 202 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2019

Very weak cyclogenesis will be developing are area of enhanced
surface convergence across southwest and central Kansas late this
afternoon through the overnight. The CAMs have been showing for
many runs now isolated to scattered convection within this low
pressure area as early as 21 UTC, initiating in far southwest
Kansas and expanding into the I-70 corridor around Hays and
Wakeeney by around 7 or 8 pm. Deep layer shear is generally weak
as the upper ridge has dominated the area for days, however steep
mid level lapse rates will promote deep updrafts and a threat for
perhaps a marginally severe wind gust and locally heavy rain and
lightning continuing through the late evening hours far beyond
sunset. Beyond the convective threat through the late evening, the
lows tonight should be very warm in the mid 70s across the
central Kansas counties, and not as warm out in the higher
elevation counties near the Colorado line.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 221 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2019

A cold front on Friday may be the focus for a few thunderstorms,
again weakly sheared, so severe threat should be minimal. Light
easterly upslope will develop after the frontal passage, with a
number of days to follow with continued persistent upper ridging
across the southern Rockies and central/southern High Plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 602 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2019

A few isolated thunderstorms will drift slowly eastward across
west central into central Kansas through late this evening,
potentially affecting KHYS. Otherwise, VFR conditions will
prevail in the vicinity of all TAF sites through early Thursday
afternoon. South-southwest winds 10 to 20kt will persist through
early Thursday as a surface low remains anchored in extreme
southeast Colorado.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  74 102  73  94 /  20   0  10   0
GCK  72 101  69  92 /  40   0  10  10
EHA  71 100  69  93 /  10   0  10  20
LBL  71 101  72  93 /  10   0  10  10
HYS  72  96  71  89 /  40   0  20  10
P28  74 103  75  97 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...JJohnson

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
500 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2019

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-011000-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
500 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2019 /400 AM MDT Wed Jul 31 2019/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...south
central...southwest and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hot daytime temperatures could lead to heat indices approaching
105 degrees over parts of central and south central Kansas this
afternoon.

Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible over
west central and southwest Kansas later this afternoon and
evening. A few of the storms could produce strong wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

For more details visit our webpage http://weather.gov/ddc/ehwo

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
714 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2019

KSZ030-031-045-046-010100-
Rush KS-Trego KS-Ellis KS-Ness KS-
714 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN NESS...SOUTHEASTERN
TREGO...EASTERN LANE...NORTHWESTERN RUSH AND SOUTHERN ELLIS COUNTIES
UNTIL 800 PM CDT...

At 714 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles northwest of Antonino to near Beeler.
Movement was east at 25 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Hays, Ellis, Ness City, Catherine, Ransom, McCracken, Brownell,
Yocemento, Cedar Bluff, Munjor, Arnold, Toulon, Antonino and Riga.

LAT...LON 3894 9905 3842 9978 3848 10025 3850 10025
      3894 9967
TIME...MOT...LOC 0014Z 275DEG 21KT 3883 9949 3851 10015

JJOHNSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
731 PM CDT WED JUL 31 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0728 PM     TSTM WND GST     LA CROSSE               38.53N 99.31W
07/31/2019  E60 MPH          RUSH               KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

GT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
737 PM CDT WED JUL 31 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0731 PM     TSTM WND GST     HAYS                    38.85N 99.27W
07/31/2019  M46 MPH          ELLIS              KS   AWOS

            AWOS STATION KHYS HAYS REGIONAL AIRPORT AWOS
            SITE.

&&

GT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
757 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2019

KSZ031-046-010130-
Rush KS-Ellis KS-
757 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN RUSH AND SOUTHEASTERN
ELLIS COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM CDT...

At 757 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm very
near Pfeifer, moving east at 25 mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Hays, Victoria, Walker, Catherine, Schoenchen, Liebenthal, Loretta,
Yocemento, Pfeifer, Toulon, Munjor and Antonino.

LAT...LON 3865 9904 3862 9947 3894 9945 3894 9904
TIME...MOT...LOC 0057Z 278DEG 21KT 3873 9916

JJOHNSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
758 PM CDT WED JUL 31 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0743 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 ESE HAYS              38.87N 99.29W
07/31/2019                   ELLIS              KS   PUBLIC

            2 POWER POLES SNAPPED.

&&

GT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
813 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2019

KSZ046-010145-
Rush KS-
813 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR RUSH COUNTY UNTIL 845 PM CDT...

At 813 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Timken, moving east at 25 mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
La Crosse, Otis, Bison, Rush Center, Timken, Nekoma, Hargrave,
Shaffer and Loretta.

LAT...LON 3835 9903 3837 9949 3863 9946 3866 9903
TIME...MOT...LOC 0113Z 278DEG 21KT 3844 9919

JJOHNSON