Special Weather Statement, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
657 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019

...updated aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019

Temperatures warming rapidly through the 90s at midday. Increased
850 mb temperatures and a bit better SWly downslope component to
the strong south winds are working together to push most of us
closer to 100 degrees. If the Dodge City airport reaches 100 this
afternoon, this would be the first time since August 31st.

Confident that scattered convection will develop along a surface
trough by 7 pm, from NW Kansas through SE Colorado. As such,
scattered pops in the grids are highest in the NW zones this
evening. SPC continues with 5% wind probabilities through this
evening, which seems appropriate for any multicell clusters
capable of strong downburst/outflow winds to 60 mph. In a hot
well-mixed boundary layer with inverted-V soundings, and little
effective shear, outflow winds will be the primary risk from any
convection through midnight as some of the rainfall evaporates in
the dry sub-cloud layers. Uncertainty continues in regards to how
far east thunderstorms will advance this evening. Model solutions
are varied, with 12z NAM suggesting storms arriving at Garden
City, Dodge City and Liberal this evening, while many CAMs keep
most of the activity NW of SW KS. Midlevel steering flow is weak,
with 500 mb winds generally 10 mph or less, so whereever the
storms go, they will not go there quickly. Some self-eastward
propogation is possible on storm outflow, but the loss of daytime
heating/instability and warm 700 mb temperatures should squash
any convection certainly by around midnight. South winds will
remain breezy and elevated tonight in response to a low level jet,
and the mixing will ensure most zones hold in the 70s through
Thursday morning, with only a few upper 60s on the higher terrain
in the NW zones.

We lose all support for convection Thursday and Thursday night,
and all grids are dry. The summer dog day doldrums will continue,
with 850 mb temperature/thickness trends supporting another degree
or two of heat Thursday afternoon. Will issue another heat
advisory for the eastern zones, where heat index values of 105-108
degrees are forecasted. It will be hot everywhere, but from Hays
to Pratt to Medicine Lodge is where higher humidity will make the
heat the most stressful/dangerous to those outdoors. Models show a
weakened pressure gradient Thursday compared to Wednesday, with
south winds averaging 15-25 mph eastern zones, and only light
south winds along/west of US 83.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 152 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019

...Heat continues Friday and Saturday...
...A break from the heat expected early next week...

The dog day doldrums of summer continue Friday, with no change in
synoptic pattern or airmass. With broad high pressure aloft and
centered to our east, all zones dry with breezy south winds, and
afternoon temperatures of 99-103.

Subtropical upper high will begin a retrogression westward on
Saturday through Saturday night, ending up centered in New Mexico.
This process will likely allow some thunderstorms to at least
approach the northern zones Saturday night, as shown by various
medium range models. Still most locations will remain dry, with
perhaps 1-3 degrees less hot Saturday afternoon.

High pressure aloft retrogrades to near the Four Corners Sunday
through Sunday night, and becomes stronger, which will force a
synoptic pattern change across the plains. 12z ECMWF shows a
respectable cold front boundary (for mid summer standards) sliding
southward through SW KS daylight Sunday. Suspect the advance of
the front will be slower than models depict, as it fights the
prefrontal hot airmass, but certainly by Sunday night/early Monday
the front will have made it through, with a shift to light NE
winds. Models latch onto this focusing boundary for our next
chance of at least scattered thunderstorms, and chance/scattered
category pops are in the grids for all zones Sunday night. This
would be a welcome drink of rain for SW KS, after several more hot
dry afternoons between now and then. The heat will relax on
Sunday as the downslope components are lost, but the real heat
relief will arrive Monday, with 12z MEX keeping most locations in
the lower to mid 80s. 12z ECMWF develops the upper ridge strongly
to 599 dm over the Great Basin late Monday, and the resultant
northerly flow will keep the cooler airmass in place through
Tuesday. 12z ECMWF suggests some showers continuing north of the
stalling frontal boundary Monday, with 12z GFS suggesting free air
conditioning in the 50s Tuesday morning.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 627 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019

Isolated thunderstorms will be entering the west central Kansas
counties through 02 UTC. High based thunderstorms would mainly
produce isolated strong to severe wind gusts. The overall minimal
areal coverage will minimize chances that a terminal is impacted,
but GCK and LBL could see a vicinity thunderstorm. This
convective activity will rapidly fade at sunset. No other
meteorological restrictions are expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  74 101  76 101 /  20   0   0   0
GCK  69 103  73 103 /  30   0   0   0
EHA  70 103  71 103 /  30   0   0   0
LBL  73 102  73 102 /  20   0  10  10
HYS  74 103  76 103 /  20   0   0   0
P28  77 101  79 103 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ030-031-046-065-
066-081-090.

Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Thursday for KSZ030-031-046-
065-066-081-090.

&&

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Russell

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
604 PM MDT Wed Jul 17 2019

KSZ061-180100-
Hamilton KS-
604 PM MDT Wed Jul 17 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HAMILTON COUNTY UNTIL 700 PM
MDT...

At 603 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a line of strong
thunderstorms along the Colorado state line from north to
southwest of Coolidge, moving east at 20 mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Syracuse and Coolidge.

LAT...LON 3826 10204 3826 10156 3785 10156 3779 10204
TIME...MOT...LOC 0003Z 252DEG 18KT 3807 10197

GERARD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
708 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019

KSZ062-180100-
Kearny KS-
708 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN KEARNY AND NORTHWESTERN
FINNEY COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM CDT...

At 708 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 15
miles northwest of Lakin, moving northeast at 25 mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northern Kearny and
northwestern Finney Counties.

LAT...LON 3827 10134 3826 10111 3823 10110 3821 10111
      3805 10141 3816 10150
TIME...MOT...LOC 0008Z 236DEG 21KT 3815 10138

GERARD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
801 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019

KSZ043-061-062-180145-
Kearny KS-Hamilton KS-Scott KS-
801 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN HAMILTON...NORTHERN
KEARNY AND SOUTHWESTERN SCOTT COUNTIES UNTIL 845 PM CDT/745 PM
MDT/...

At 801 PM CDT/701 PM MDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm 15 miles north of Kendall, moving east at 30 mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northeastern
Hamilton, northern Kearny and southwestern Scott Counties.

LAT...LON 3826 10161 3826 10113 3834 10112 3834 10111
      3803 10111 3801 10158
TIME...MOT...LOC 0101Z 259DEG 25KT 3816 10150

GERARD

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