Special Weather Statement, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
647 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2019

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 135 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2019

An isolated thunderstorms will be possible late this afternoon
during peak heating across southwest Kansas with a better chance
of thunderstorms along a warm front moving into central Kansas.
Any storms that do form do not look to become severe, but frequent
lightning will be a possibility. The best chance of thunderstorms
will be along the I-70 corridor around midnight when a MCS moves
through the area. Strong winds over 60 mph will be the main
concern with these storms. The remainder of the overnight through
tomorrow looks quiet with skies becoming mostly clear by sunrise
tomorrow. Winds will generally be from the southeast through
tonight becoming light and variable tomorrow morning. As for
temperatures, lows tonight look to range from the low 60s across
west central Kansas to low 70s across south central Kansas. Highs
tomorrow are expected to reach into the low to mid 90s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 135 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2019

A summer like weather pattern emerges through the long term period
as an upper level high builds over the Central and Southern
Rockies. However, a stray thunderstorm or two can not be ruled out
during peak heating into the early evening hours each day.
Temperatures through the long term look to range form the upper
80s to upper 90s for highs and 60s to around 70 degrees for lows.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 639 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2019

Scattered thunderstorms will roll across north central and
portions of southwest Kansas overnight. The area that will have
the best chance for these storms will be Hays, Garden City and
possibly Dodge City. Based on the latest short term models some
scattered thunderstorms will be possible in the Garden City area
between 01z and 03z Tuesday and Dodge City between 04z and 07z
Tuesday. Thunderstorms that cross the Hays area between 04z and
10z Tuesday will be capable of producing reduced visibilities due
to heavy rainfall and at least MVFR ceilings. Outside these
storms the winds will be mainly southeast at 10 to 15 knots
overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  68  94  68  91 /  20   0   0   0
GCK  64  93  64  90 /  40   0   0   0
EHA  65  96  64  92 /  20   0   0   0
LBL  68  95  64  91 /  10   0   0   0
HYS  62  92  68  86 /  60  10  10   0
P28  72  95  71  95 /  20   0   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Burgert

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
304 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2019

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-090815-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
304 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2019 /204 AM MDT Mon Jul 8 2019/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...south
central...southwest and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Day 1 Discussion
----------------

A risk of strong to severe storms exists mainly for tonight for
areas along the I-70 corridor with the main threat of thunderstorm
winds of 60 mph or greater and heavy rain. Elsewhere isolated
storms could develop further south along the highway 83 corridor
although this environment is not as favorable for development. If
storms do develop, strong winds and heavy rain will also be the
threat.

Day 1 Hazards
-------------
* Tornado: Limited risk
* Hail: Limited risk
* Thunderstorm wind damage: Elevated risk
* Lightning: Limited risk
* Excessive heat: Limited risk

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Days 2-7 Discussion
-------------------

High temperatures in the mid to upper 90s
 will be the case for the end of the workweek into the weekend.

Days 2-7 Hazards
----------------
* Tuesday
  - Excessive heat: Elevated risk

* Wednesday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Excessive heat: Elevated risk

* Thursday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

* Friday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Excessive heat: Limited risk

* Saturday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Excessive heat: Limited risk

* Sunday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Excessive heat: Limited risk

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

For more details visit our webpage http://weather.gov/ddc/ehwo

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