Special Weather Statement, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
647 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2019

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 123 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2019

The main focus for this evening is if there will be storms in the FA
or not. An increasing cumulus field is seen on visible satellite across
the far eastern zones. There will be plenty of CAPE for storm development.
Wind shear is non-existent so storms are not expected to be severe.
Will carry some pops across the eastern zones this afternoon and evening.
The latest HRRR keeps the entire area storm free while other meso models
do have isolated storms. The main threat from the storms will be heavy
rainfall as PWATs remain over an inch across the greater region. Some
marginal wind may be possible as well as there is some DCAPE present.
Otherwise, the rest of the FA will remain dry tonight with lows in
the 60s and 70s. For tomorrow, a hot one is expected with highs in
the mid to upper 90s. Will keep a dry forecast going as any convection
looks to remain well north of the FA. Temperatures around firework
time look to be in the upper 70s to lower 80s with a light SE/S wind
of 5 to 15 mph. Overall, tomorrow and tomorrow night looks like your
typical Summer day/night across SW Kansas with no serious weather impacts
for those outside.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 123 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2019

The extended period will be marked by your typical summer-time Kansas
weather. Warm to hot and mainly dry, except for perhaps a storm or
two. Speaking of storms, the EC is indicating an MCS moving through
Saturday evening into Sunday. THE NBM higher pops and slightly lower
temps look on track for now. SW Kansas will be at the tail end of the
westerlies, so overall this does make sense. Beyond that, a slightly
drier pattern and warm to hot temps are expected to resume.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 637 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2019

A small cluster of redeveloping thunderstorms will remain in the
vicinity of the HYS terminals through at least sunset. If a storms
can develop or back build toward the terminal, gusts up to 40
knots could be possible with heavy rain, and small hail. Other
than that, there is little chance any of the other terminals will
be impacted by convection for the remainder of the evening based
on the recent short term model output and recent radar trends.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  70  95  70  96 /  10   0  10  10
GCK  67  97  68  96 /   0   0  10  20
EHA  67  97  68  96 /   0  10  10  10
LBL  67  96  68  96 /   0   0  10  10
HYS  70  96  71  96 /  20  10  10  30
P28  72  96  73  98 /  30  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Russell

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
234 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2019

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-040745-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
234 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2019 /134 AM MDT Wed Jul 3 2019/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...south
central...southwest and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Day 1 Discussion
----------------

Thunderstorm coverage this afternoon through tonight will be very
limited, and much less than Tuesday. Most locations will remain
dry. Typical July heat in the lower 90s this afternoon.

Day 1 Hazards
-------------
* Lightning: Limited risk
* Excessive heat: Limited risk

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Days 2-7 Discussion
-------------------

Hotter temperatures are expected Independence Day and Friday, with
upper 90s common. The heat is expected to relax behind a weak
frontal boundary on Saturday.

Thunderstorm coverage will be very limited on Independence Day,
with most locations remaining dry. Thunderstorm coverage will
increase Friday and Saturday, with some strong to severe
thunderstorms possible.

Days 2-7 Hazards
----------------
* Thursday
  - Excessive heat: Elevated risk.

* Friday
  - Lightning: Elevated risk.
  - Excessive heat: Elevated risk

* Saturday
  - Lightning: Elevated risk

* Sunday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Excessive heat: Limited risk

* Monday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Excessive heat: Limited risk

* Tuesday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Excessive heat: Limited risk

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

For more details visit our webpage http://weather.gov/ddc/ehwo

Turner

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
729 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2019

KSZ031-040115-
Ellis-
729 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN ELLIS COUNTY...

At 728 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located very near Victoria,
moving southwest at 10 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Hays, Victoria, Walker, Toulon and Munjor.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 3889 9904 3876 9904 3881 9943 3893 9925
TIME...MOT...LOC 0028Z 024DEG 7KT 3887 9918

RBURG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
742 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2019

KSZ031-040130-
Ellis KS-
742 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN ELLIS COUNTY UNTIL 830
PM CDT...

At 742 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Toulon. This storm was nearly stationary.

Penny size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Hays, Victoria, Schoenchen, Toulon, Munjor and Antonino.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3892 9929 3888 9910 3871 9911 3870 9935
      3883 9948
TIME...MOT...LOC 0042Z 038DEG 4KT 3888 9926

RBURG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
748 PM CDT WED JUL 3 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0735 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 W TOULON              38.85N 99.27W
07/03/2019  M51 MPH          ELLIS              KS   AWOS

            AWOS STATION KHYS HAYS REGIONAL AIRPORT AWOS
            SITE.

&&

RB

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>