Severe Thunderstorm Warning 83, NWS Dodge City, KS

830 
WWUS53 KDDC 212138
SVSDDC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
438 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019

KSC051-212215-
/O.CON.KDDC.SV.W.0083.000000T0000Z-190521T2215Z/
Ellis KS-
438 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM CDT
FOR ELLIS COUNTY...

At 438 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Yocemento,
moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Hays, Ellis, Victoria, Catherine, Emmeram, Yocemento, Toulon and
Munjor.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3893 9904 3876 9920 3888 9957 3913 9952
      3913 9904
TIME...MOT...LOC 2138Z 215DEG 32KT 3893 9938 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

JJOHNSON

564 
WWUS53 KDDC 212151
SVSDDC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
451 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019

KSC051-212215-
/O.CON.KDDC.SV.W.0083.000000T0000Z-190521T2215Z/
Ellis KS-
451 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM CDT
FOR NORTHERN ELLIS COUNTY...

At 450 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 7 miles northwest of
Catherine, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Public. At 444 PM, quarter size hail was reported one mile 
         west-southwest of Hays.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Hays, Victoria, Catherine and Emmeram. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3893 9904 3883 9914 3897 9952 3913 9952
      3913 9904
TIME...MOT...LOC 2150Z 215DEG 32KT 3902 9930 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

JJOHNSON

099 
WWUS53 KDDC 212210
SVSDDC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
510 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019

KSC051-212220-
/O.EXP.KDDC.SV.W.0083.000000T0000Z-190521T2215Z/
Ellis KS-
510 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN ELLIS COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 515 PM CDT...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and has exited the warned area. Therefore, the warning will
be allowed to expire.

LAT...LON 3893 9904 3883 9914 3897 9952 3913 9952
      3913 9904
TIME...MOT...LOC 2210Z 215DEG 32KT 3915 9918 

$$

JJOHNSON

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
343 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019

Low topped convection in association with an upper level cold
pool will gradually wither away with the loss of daytime heating.
Weak surface high pressure and drier air will yield excellent
radiational cooling. Opted to issue a frost advisory for
temperatures between 32 and 35F for far western Kansas for
tonight. Front will become stationary across the southern plains
and then race back north as a warm front on Thursday as a strong
shortwave trough lifts NNE in negative tilt fashion across the
western high plains. However, deep and possibly severe convection
will be ongoing Thursday morning near the frontal along the
Oklahoma state line and into the panhandles and this activity will
be moving northeastward across southwestern Kansas Thursday
morning. If convection doesn't persist all day, air mass recovery
could occur, and tornadoes would be a good possibility. Given the
lack of certainty about prior convection and recovery, we did not
get too bullish about tornado chances just yet. Other than the
models showing convection all day, the pattern does look favorable
for a possible tornado event.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019

The aforementioned shortwave trough will push a front into the
southern plains once again and give us a break from thunderstorms
Friday. However, with an upper level storm system digging into
the western United States, this front will push back north as a
warm front Friday night, bringing additional chances for
thunderstorms just about every day starting Saturday. Severe
weather could occur just about every day, and by this time,
mesoscale boundaries could play a role in distribution and mode of
the storms across the plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019

A few showers and thunderstorms are possible through 00z as an
upper level low passes during daytime heating. CIGS will continue
to improve as drier air works into western Kansas with the gusty
southwest winds. Expect winds to drop off by 00z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  38  76  59  75 /  30   0  40  70
GCK  36  73  53  72 /  10   0  30  60
EHA  40  78  50  79 /  10   0  30  20
LBL  43  78  58  78 /  10   0  30  60
HYS  38  70  54  69 /  30   0  30  70
P28  46  78  65  78 /  30  10  30  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory from 4 AM CDT /3 AM MDT/ to 8 AM CDT /7 AM MDT/
Wednesday for KSZ043-061-062.

&&

SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Finch

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
503 AM CDT Tue May 21 2019

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-221100-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
503 AM CDT Tue May 21 2019 /403 AM MDT Tue May 21 2019/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...south
central...southwest and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Day 1 Discussion
----------------

Locally heavy rain will move through central and parts of southwest
Kansas this morning. There will be a threat for flooding with the
rain. See the latest Flash Flood Watch product for additional details.
Scattered thunderstorms are expected to redevelop this afternoon.
A few of these storms could become severe with large hail, damaging
wind and isolated tornadoes. The greatest threat for severe weather
will be around central Kansas.

Low temperatures tonight are expected to dip into the mid and upper
30s over far west central Kansas. Areas of frost will be possible.

Day 1 Hazards
-------------
* Tornado: Limited risk
* Hail: Elevated risk
* Thunderstorm wind damage: Elevated risk
* Flooding: Elevated risk
* Lightning: Elevated risk
* Non-thunderstorm wind: Elevated risk
* Freeze: Elevated risk

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Days 2-7 Discussion
-------------------

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop late Wednesday night
into Thursday. Severe thunderstorms are expected with the greatest
potential to the east of a Hays to Liberal line. Large hail, damaging
winds, tornadoes and locally heavy rain will be possible.

Days 2-7 Hazards
----------------
* Wednesday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Severe thunderstorm: Limited risk
  - Freeze: Elevated risk

* Thursday
  - Flooding: Limited risk
  - Lightning: Elevated risk
  - Severe thunderstorm: Elevated risk
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk

* Friday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

* Saturday
  - Lightning: Elevated risk

* Sunday
  - Lightning: Elevated risk

* Monday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon east of Highway 83.

&&

For more details visit our webpage http://weather.gov/ddc/ehwo

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
236 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019

KSZ063-064-077-212000-
Gray KS-Finney KS-Hodgeman KS-
236 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN FINNEY...WEST
CENTRAL HODGEMAN AND NORTHEASTERN GRAY COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM CDT...

At 236 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Kalvesta, moving northeast at 30 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Kalvesta.

LAT...LON 3796 10032 3808 10046 3822 10042 3818 10015
TIME...MOT...LOC 1936Z 212DEG 26KT 3808 10037

JJOHNSON

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
251 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019

KSZ045-064-212030-
Hodgeman KS-Ness KS-
251 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN NESS AND WESTERN
HODGEMAN COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM CDT...

At 251 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles east of Kalvesta, moving northeast at 30 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southeastern Ness
and western Hodgeman Counties.

LAT...LON 3799 10005 3811 10021 3833 10006 3834 9959
TIME...MOT...LOC 1951Z 209DEG 27KT 3810 10010

JJOHNSON

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
314 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019

KSZ044-045-212100-
Lane KS-Ness KS-
314 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN NESS AND
SOUTHEASTERN LANE COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM CDT...

At 314 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles south of Alamota, moving northeast at 25 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Alamota and Beeler.

LAT...LON 3828 10017 3833 10042 3855 10041 3856 9989
TIME...MOT...LOC 2014Z 210DEG 22KT 3834 10030

JJOHNSON

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
319 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019

KSZ045-212100-
Ness KS-
319 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN NESS COUNTY UNTIL 400 PM
CDT...

At 319 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles south of Ness City, moving northeast at 25 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Ness City and Bazine.

LAT...LON 3855 9959 3851 9959 3828 9984 3829 10017
      3856 9990
TIME...MOT...LOC 2019Z 210DEG 22KT 3831 9993

JJOHNSON

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
335 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019

KSZ030-031-045-212115-
Trego KS-Ellis KS-Ness KS-
335 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN NESS...SOUTHEASTERN
TREGO...NORTHWESTERN RUSH AND SOUTHWESTERN ELLIS COUNTIES UNTIL 415
PM CDT...

At 334 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Brownell, moving northeast at 25 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Brownell and Cedar Bluff.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

If on or near Cedar Bluff Reservoir, get out of the water and move
indoors or inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to
10 miles from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you
are close enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter
now! Do not be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

&&

LAT...LON 3884 9942 3869 9955 3869 9959 3865 9959
      3855 9967 3856 9995 3884 9978
TIME...MOT...LOC 2034Z 208DEG 21KT 3861 9980

JJOHNSON

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
408 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019

KSZ030-031-045-046-212145-
Rush KS-Trego KS-Ellis KS-Ness KS-
408 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN NESS...SOUTHEASTERN
TREGO...NORTHWESTERN RUSH AND SOUTHERN ELLIS COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM
CDT...

At 408 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
McCracken, moving northeast at 35 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Hays, Ellis, Catherine, Yocemento, Toulon, Munjor and Antonino.

LAT...LON 3863 9951 3873 9974 3897 9961 3896 9904
TIME...MOT...LOC 2108Z 210DEG 31KT 3867 9961

JJOHNSON