Severe Thunderstorm Warning 361, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
635 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019

Thunderstorms are likely this evening in vicinity of a frontal
boundary as it stalls out across western Kansas. Steepening low/mid
level lapse rates and increased moisture with surface dewpoints well
up into the 60s(F) ahead of the advancing boundary will provide
ample instability to support thunderstorm development as capping
erodes. Meanwhile, dynamics aloft will be relatively favorable
with an increasingly difluent southwest flow and a strong +100kt
jet core lifting northeast across the high plains with a right
entrance region setting up generally across western Kansas,
virtually straddling the stalled frontal boundary. Combined with
SBCAPE values upward of 2500 J/kg and more than sufficient deep
layer shear, this will increase severe potential with large hail
and damaging winds the primary threat. Isolated tornadoes cannot
be ruled out.

Expect lows down into the 50s(F) in west central and portions of
southwest Kansas tonight behind the stalled boundary to the 60s(F)
in south central Kansas. Cooler air will surge into western Kansas
early Sunday morning behind a secondary and much stronger cold
front. As a result, look for highs only up into the 70s(F) for
much of the area Sunday afternoon with a few lower 80s(F) possible
near and along the Oklahoma border.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 212 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019

Tranquil conditions are likely Monday as a drier air mass remains
settled across the Western High Plains while ridging aloft transitions
eastward through the region. Thunderstorm chances return early
Tuesday as medium range models show an upper level trough of low
pressure digging southeast across the Desert Southwest, setting up
an increasingly difluent southwest flow aloft across the high
plains of western Kansas. With a prevailing southerly flow pulling
moisture back into the area increasing instability, thunderstorms
will be possible Tuesday morning as a series of H5 vort maxima
eject out of the trough axis in the Desert Southwest and into the
South Plains. Initial development is expected in the panhandles of
Texas and Oklahoma with potential storms then possibly spreading
into southwest Kansas. Thunderstorm chances continue into Wednesday
as an upper level shortwave trough pushes east across the Upper
Midwest, sending an attendant cold front southward into
western/central Kansas. However, an expected weaker flow aloft
along with uncertainty as it pertains to timing and placement of
the frontal boundary will play factors into where the best chance
for storms will be.

Prevailing low level southerlies and ridging aloft transitioning
will result in warm up Monday with highs back up into the 80s(F).
Similar temperatures are expected through the middle part of the
week with yet another frontal boundary projected to push through
western Kansas by Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 630 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019

Thunderstorms will continue to develop and spread northeast across
portions of southwest and central Kansas through late this
evening, likely affecting KHYS and possibly KGCK and KDDC.
Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to prevail overnight. Low
level stratus is then expected to develop across portions of
central Kansas early Sunday morning resulting in possible MVFR
cigs in the vicinity of KHYS and KDDC generally after 10Z.
Southerly winds around 15 to 30kt will persist across central and
much of southwest Kansas overnight as a surface low remains
anchored in southeast Colorado. A strong cold front will then push
through western Kansas early Sunday morning turning winds
northerly 15 to 25kt.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  58  78  54  85 /  60  30   0   0
GCK  55  78  52  86 /  50  10   0  10
EHA  55  78  53  86 /  20   0   0  10
LBL  58  78  53  86 /  30  10   0  10
HYS  57  77  53  83 /  80  40   0   0
P28  65  80  57  83 /  50  50   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...JJohnson

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1153 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-221000-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
1153 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019 /1053 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...south
central...southwest and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Day 1 Discussion
----------------

Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible late this afternoon
into this evening as a weak frontal boundary pushes into, then stalls
out across western Kansas. Up to 2 inch hail and damaging winds
60 to 70 mph will be the main threats. However, isolated tornadoes
cannot be ruled out with the strongest storms. Periods of heavy
rainfall will also be possible with the strongest storms increasing
the potential for localized flooding.

Day 1 Hazards
-------------
* Tornado: Limited risk
* Hail: Limited risk
* Thunderstorm wind damage: Limited risk
* Flooding: Limited risk
* Lightning: Significant risk
* Non-thunderstorm wind: Limited risk

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Days 2-7 Discussion
-------------------

Thunderstorms will be possible virtually every day Tuesday through
the end of the week. However, it is too early to determine the
potential for severe weather.

Days 2-7 Hazards
----------------
* Sunday
  - Flooding: Limited risk
  - Lightning: Limited risk

* Monday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk
  - Fire weather: Elevated risk

* Tuesday
  - Lightning: Elevated risk

* Wednesday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk
  - Fire weather: Elevated risk

* Thursday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk

* Friday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk
  - Fire weather: Elevated risk

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed along and east of a Wakeeney to
Garden City to Liberal line generally after 4pm.

&&

For more details visit our webpage http://weather.gov/ddc/ehwo

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
601 PM CDT SAT SEP 21 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0557 PM     HAIL             8 SSW TREGO CENTER      38.79N 99.97W
09/21/2019  E1.75 INCH       TREGO              KS   PUBLIC

&&

JDF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
606 PM CDT SAT SEP 21 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0559 PM     HAIL             6 SW TREGO CENTER       38.82N 99.96W
09/21/2019  E1.00 INCH       TREGO              KS   PUBLIC

&&

JDF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
616 PM CDT SAT SEP 21 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0548 PM     HAIL             8 NNW RANSOM            38.74N 99.98W
09/21/2019  E1.00 INCH       TREGO              KS   PUBLIC

&&

JDF

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
657 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019

KSZ044-045-220030-
Lane KS-Ness KS-
657 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN NESS AND
NORTHEASTERN LANE COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM CDT...

At 657 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Shields, moving northeast at 25 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Dighton, Utica, Pendennis and Shields.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
west central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3869 10007 3844 10028 3850 10059 3870 10053
      3870 10031
TIME...MOT...LOC 2357Z 240DEG 41KT 3856 10040

TATRO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
716 PM CDT SAT SEP 21 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0710 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 SE MCCRACKEN          38.58N 99.57W
09/21/2019  E60 MPH          RUSH               KS   STORM CHASER

&&

JDF