Severe Thunderstorm Warning 292, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1233 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 340 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2019

The upper level ridge over the plains and southwestern United
States that has been fluctuating in amplitude, latitude and
longitude over past several weeks will continue to do so over the
next week to 10 days. The ridge will amplify by Sunday and persist
into Tuesday across the high plains, then weaken a bit and shift
back southward by mid next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2019

Western Kansas will continue to be situated along the southern
periphery of the westerlies through Saturday, with persistent and
rich low level moisture along and north of a quasi-stationary
front. In addition, upper level temperatures are rather cool by
August standards (around -9C at 500mb). This leads high
instability, with thunderstorms developing on the western high
plains in the late afternoon in upslope flow, then moving across
parts of western and central KS overnight. Thunderstorm chances
are high along the I-70 corridor late this evening and overnight.
By the time these storms make it into western Kansas their
severity will be greatly diminished; but there may be some wind
gusts as high as 60 mph around Hays and Wakeeney between 11 pm and
3 am. Storm chances father south at Dodge City and Garden City are
lower (20-30% range). Another storm cluster may occur along the
I-70 corridor Saturday night, but confidence on this is low. We
just about have to take these situations one day at a time and
refine the forecast about 12 hrs in advance.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2019

Upper level ridging will tend to inhibit convection Sunday through
Tuesday, with hot and mainly dry weather. The upper level ridge is
expected to weaken a bit by Wednesday so that small thunderstorm
chances are back in the forecast for the Wednesday night to Friday
time frame.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019

Ongoing thunderstorms will be possible around the Hays area
through 08z Saturday. Further south there will also be slight
chance for thunderstorms in the Garden City and Dodge City area
for the next few hours. Strong damaging winds and heavy rainfall
will be possible with these storms but outside these storms the
wind speed will be mainly around 15 knots. BUFR soundings
indicating VFR conditions with ceilings from 06z to 12Z ranging
from 3500 to 7000 ft AGL. The thunderstorm activity will taper off
after 08z with clearing skies.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  69  99  68  98 /  30   0  10   0
GCK  63  96  63  95 /  20   0  10   0
EHA  64  99  63  98 /  20   0   0   0
LBL  66  99  66  99 /  20  10   0   0
HYS  65  91  66  91 /  90  10  30   0
P28  72 101  72 100 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Finch
SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Burgert

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
449 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2019

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-171000-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
449 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2019 /349 AM MDT Fri Aug 16 2019/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...south
central...southwest and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Day 1 Discussion
----------------

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible between 4
pm and sunset south and east of Dodge City. Hail up to the size of
quarters, wind gusts of 60 mph and heavy rainfall will be the main
hazards late today.

There will also be a chance for severe thunderstorms after 7 pm
north of a Johnson City to Garden City to Rush Center line. In
this area wind gusts of 60 mph or greater, one to two inch hail
and heavy rainfall will be possible with the strongest storms.

Day 1 Hazards
-------------
* Hail: Elevated risk
* Thunderstorm wind damage: Elevated risk
* Lightning: Elevated risk
* Excessive heat: Elevated risk
* Non-thunderstorm wind: Limited risk

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Days 2-7 Discussion
-------------------

There will be a slight chance for strong to severe thunderstorms
on Saturday with hail and strong gusty winds begin the main
hazards.

High temperatures of around 100 degrees can be expected from
Sunday through Tuesday. These temperatures when combined with
higher relative humidity on Monday may create excessive heat
conditions.

Days 2-7 Hazards
----------------
* Saturday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Severe thunderstorm: Limited risk
  - Excessive heat: Elevated risk

* Sunday
  - Excessive heat: Elevated risk

* Monday
  - Excessive heat: Significant risk

* Tuesday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Excessive heat: Significant risk
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk

* Wednesday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Excessive heat: Elevated risk

* Thursday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed after 4 pm along and south of a
Pratt to Ashland line. Spotter activation may also be needed
after 7 pm north of a Johnson City to Garden City to Rush Center
line.

&&

For more details visit our webpage http://weather.gov/ddc/ehwo

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1255 AM CDT SAT AUG 17 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1246 AM     TSTM WND GST     DIGHTON                 38.48N 100.47W
08/17/2019  M50 MPH          LANE               KS   MESONET

            MESONET STATION DW9499 DIGHTON.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
112 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019

KSZ030-170645-
Trego KS-
112 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR TREGO COUNTY UNTIL 145 AM CDT...

At 112 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Trego Center, moving northeast at 30 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Wakeeney, Ogallah, Trego Center, Cedar Bluff and Riga.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 AM CDT for
central and west central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3882 9959 3870 9960 3870 10015 3898 10015
      3908 9960
TIME...MOT...LOC 0612Z 233DEG 65KT 3883 9990

TATRO

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
116 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019

KSZ045-170700-
Ness KS-
116 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NESS COUNTY UNTIL 200 AM CDT...

At 115 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Ransom, moving northeast at 35 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Ness City, Bazine, Ransom, Brownell and Arnold.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 AM CDT for
central and west central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3827 9959 3826 10013 3869 10015 3870 9959
TIME...MOT...LOC 0615Z 233DEG 65KT 3856 9997

TATRO

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
140 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019

KSZ030-031-045-046-170730-
Rush KS-Trego KS-Ellis KS-Ness KS-
140 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN NESS...EAST CENTRAL
TREGO...NORTHERN RUSH AND SOUTHERN ELLIS COUNTIES UNTIL 230 AM CDT...

At 140 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles north of McCracken, moving east at 35 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Hays, La Crosse, Victoria, Walker, Otis, Bison, Schoenchen,
McCracken, Liebenthal, Yocemento, Munjor, Loretta, Hargrave, Pfeifer,
Toulon and Antonino.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 AM CDT for
central and west central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3891 9904 3870 9904 3870 9903 3851 9903
      3849 9960 3892 9961
TIME...MOT...LOC 0640Z 272DEG 56KT 3871 9953

TATRO

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
146 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019

KSZ030-170730-
Trego KS-
146 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR TREGO COUNTY UNTIL 230 AM CDT...

At 146 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles west of Trego Center, moving east at 35 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Wakeeney, Ogallah, Collyer, Trego Center, Cedar Bluff, Riga and Voda.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 AM CDT for
west central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3906 9960 3870 9960 3870 10004 3882 10015
      3913 10015 3913 10010
TIME...MOT...LOC 0646Z 272DEG 56KT 3889 10003

TATRO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
203 AM CDT SAT AUG 17 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0158 AM     TSTM WND GST     2 WSW TOULON            38.85N 99.28W
08/17/2019  M69 MPH          ELLIS              KS   ASOS

            MEASURED AT HAYS AIRPORT.

&&

MR