Flood Watch 1, NWS Dodge City, KS

Barber County, KS, Clark County, KS, Comanche County, KS, Edwards County, KS, Ellis County, KS, Finney County, KS, Ford County, KS, Grant County, KS, Gray County, KS, Hamilton County, KS, Haskell County, KS, Hodgeman County, KS, Kearny County, KS, Kiowa County, KS, Lane County, KS, Meade County, KS, Morton County, KS, Ness County, KS, Pawnee County, KS, Pratt County, KS, Rush County, KS, Scott County, KS, Seward County, KS, Stafford County, KS, Stanton County, KS, Stevens County, KS, Trego County, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
420 AM CDT Mon Mar 11 2019

...Updated short and long term discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 420 AM CDT Mon Mar 11 2019

Southwesterly flow aloft was in place over the central High Plains
early this morning as the axis of an upper level ridge moves east
of the region and an upper level low pressure system moves into
northern Baja California this evening. Ahead of this upper low, a
weak shortwave disturbance moves out of the southwest and over the
central High Plains this evening.

Low level moisture was streaming north from the southern Plains
and riding up over the low level cool airmass currently over the
central Plains. This isentropic upglide was resulting in low level
cloudiness that was currently just south of the Oklahoma border.
This morning will see the low cloudiness spreading north into
southwest Kansas. Any chances for showers look pretty slim through
early afternoon with slight chances developing later this
afternoon. The atmosphere moistens up considerably tonight with a
better chance for showers developing. Some weak instability also
develops which could result in an isolated thunderstorm overnight.

High temperatures today are a little problematic given a fairly
wide range in the MOS output. MET MOS may have a bit of a cool
bias and tended to go between it and the warmer MAV MOS.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 420 AM CDT Mon Mar 11 2019

The period through the middle part of the week is going to get a
little wild across western Kansas. The GFS/ECMWF models have the
upper low over southwest Arizona at midday Tuesday and then lift
it out to the northeast negatively tilted into the central and
southern Plains by Wednesday morning. The upper low deepens
dramatically over western Kansas on Wednesday before moving it
into eastern Nebraska Wednesday night. Increasingly rich low
level moisture continues to stream north into the central Plains
with mid 50s dewpoints moving into the area by Tuesday evening.

There may be a lull in the shower and thunderstorm activity Tuesday
morning but chances will ramp up even more by Tuesday evening as the
upper system approaches from the southwest. Thunderstorms with
heavy rain will become more widespread Tuesday night as precipitable
water values increase to around an inch or so. With the potential
for at least a couple inches of rain, and the antecedent saturated
and frozen ground, areal flooding will be a problem. Have issued a
Flood Watch for Tuesday night and Wednesday for the entire area.
This may need to be tweaked once the areal pattern to the heavy
rain becomes more clear.

As the upper system moves into western Kansas on Wednesday, the
surface low will be undergoing significant cyclogenesis. There
will be potential for high winds across south central Kansas
Wednesday afternoon as the dry slot wraps around the southern
quadrant of the low through the Panhandles into Oklahoma and
southern Kansas. Then the models indicate strong northwest winds
developing over far southwest Kansas before sunset Wednesday as
the low continues northeast. In both the warm and cold sectors,
model soundings show at least 55 knot winds developing in the
upper portions of the mixed layer, in addition to the tight
surface pressure gradient developing around the rapidly
intensifying surface low. All that being said, have decided to
issue a High Wind Watch for the entire forecast area from
Wednesday afternoon into Thursday.

A major winter storm and blizzard will be developing farther to
the north across northeast Colorado and Nebraska Wednesday
afternoon and night. Some snow is expected to develop over
northwestern sections of the forecast area Wednesday night as
colder air wraps around the system. There could be some winter
weather issues Wednesday night, depending on how much snow will
develop but it appears that the most significant problems will be
farther north away from southwest Kansas.

Calmer weather will return to western Kansas by Friday as the
upper flow becomes northwest and a surface ridge of high pressure
builds into the central High Plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1159 PM CDT Sun Mar 10 2019

MVFR/IFR cigs will spread northward into the southwest Kansas terminals
generally through the 10z-14z time frame and continue through the
remainder of the period. The lower cigs will impact the Hays terminal
by late afternoon. Widely scattered showers are also expected to
develop across southwest Kansas during the day but coverage will
be limited early on with increasing chances by Monday evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  47  40  57  48 /  30  90  70  90
GCK  46  39  57  44 /  20  90  80  90
EHA  54  39  61  42 /  30  80  80  80
LBL  49  42  58  45 /  30  90  80  90
HYS  46  37  55  48 /  10  90  70  80
P28  49  43  54  50 /  30  80  80 100

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday evening for
KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.

High Wind Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday
afternoon for KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.

&&

SHORT TERM...Gerard
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Gerard