Flash Flood Warning 36, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
702 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2019

...updated aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 151 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2019

The visible satellite channel is starting to show a cumulus field develop
just SE of Dodge City. This is in association with a front that is
in the area with convergence along the boundary. Still expect storms
to develop in the next few hours along the Highway 56 corridor. The
PWAT value from the KDDC 12Z RAOB was right around the 90th percentile.
Dewpoints are currently running in the mid to upper 60s along and east
of the front. This is very unseasonable right now for this much humidity
for SW Kansas in September. In fact, current mesoanalysis suggests
3000 J/kg of CAPE, which is even above the max normal distribution.
Bottom line, we have a very humid airmass in place and plenty of instability
for storms to utilize. Mid level lapse rates are sufficiently steep
and there is considerable CAPE forecast in the HGZ, so large hail will
be likely this afternoon (1 to 2" range). The tornado potential is
not zero due to the high dewpoints, but low level shear is far from
ideal for tornadoes... 0-1 km SRH is only about 50 m2s2. In addition,
low level winds are southwesterly. Cannot rule a brief spin up with
convection in the early stages, however, in general, the overall threat
is hail followed by wind as storm mode evolves to a line. This activity
will eventually drift out of the FA by mid to late evening, give or
take a hour or two. For tomorrow, the boundary will stall out across
the area with highs around 80 north to mid/upper 80s along the Oklahoma
border. A few storms may be possible once again in association with
the boundary. Pops will remain the highest across the SE counties in
closer proximity to the theta-e axis.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 151 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2019

There could be some strong storms in the SE counties Wednesday evening
with the main threat of wind and hail. Still some question in the exact
position of the front, but Med Lodge could still see a second evening
with storms. After this, a much drier airmass will move in from the
north on Thursday. There will be decent CAA behind the front at 850-hPa.
So some areas will struggle to break out of the 70s. Some guidance
is actually cooler than what is in the forecast now, so this is something
to watch. The pattern is there for lingering upslope stratus to persist.
If this were true, then some areas might not break out of even the
lower 70s. There is some uncertainty in Thursdays highs for right now.
Beyond this, highs will moderate and the forecast will remain generally
dry. Another front is possible next weekend with higher rain chances
and another dip possible in temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 700 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2019

A weak cold front stretching northeast to southwest across the area
is the focus for scattered thunderstorms this evening. These storms
will continue to develop and propagate east - southeast with time,
through at least midnight. As far as the local terminals are
concerned, really DDC has the highest risk for severe weather (i.e.
hail and damaging  winds) as the other terminals are behind the
boundary are not likely to see storms again tonight. After the
convective activity settles, the next concern will be fog potential
developing by early morning Wednesday. At this time the model show
patchy fog potential along the aforementioned stalled boundary,
which would mean the best opportunity around Liberal or Garden City
- but ground fog could develop anywhere.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  60  87  57  80 /  30   0  20  10
GCK  57  86  56  79 /  20   0  10  10
EHA  57  88  54  81 /  20   0  10  10
LBL  58  89  60  81 /  20   0  10  10
HYS  58  80  56  78 /  10   0  20  10
P28  66  88  63  82 /  70  10  30  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Russell

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
342 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2019

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-250900-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
342 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2019 /242 AM MDT Tue Sep 24 2019/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...south
central...southwest and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Day 1 Discussion
----------------

Quarter to Ping Pong Ball size hail and wind gusts of 60 mph will
be possible from a few thunderstorms this afternoon and early
this evening along and east of a Hays to Dodge City to Liberal
line. Periods of heavy rainfall can also be expected from some of
the stronger storms.

Day 1 Hazards
-------------
* Hail: Limited risk
* Thunderstorm wind damage: Limited risk
* Lightning: Limited risk
* Fire weather: Elevated risk

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Days 2-7 Discussion
-------------------

There will be a chance for thunderstorms across some portion of
western Kansas mid to late week. On Wednesday a few isolated
thunderstorms may be strong or even marginally severe near the
Oklahoma border. The main hazards Wednesday will be hail up to
the size of quarters and wind gusts of 50 to 60 mph.

Days 2-7 Hazards
----------------
* Wednesday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Severe thunderstorm: Limited risk
  - Fire weather: Elevated risk

* Thursday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

* Friday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Fire weather: Elevated risk

* Saturday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk

* Sunday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Excessive heat: Limited risk
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk
  - Fire weather: Significant risk

* Monday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk
  - Fire weather: Elevated risk

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed after 3 pm along and east of a
Hays to Dodge City to Liberal line.

&&

For more details visit our webpage http://weather.gov/ddc/ehwo

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
854 PM CDT TUE SEP 24 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0850 PM     HAIL             PRATT                   37.65N 98.74W
09/24/2019  E1.25 INCH       PRATT              KS   STORM CHASER

&&

MR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
903 PM CDT TUE SEP 24 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0848 PM     HAIL             PRATT                   37.65N 98.74W
09/24/2019  E1.50 INCH       PRATT              KS   PUBLIC

            PING PONG BALL REPORT BY PUBLIC VIA STORM
            SPOTTER NETWORK.

0849 PM     HAIL             4 E PRATT               37.65N 98.67W
09/24/2019  E1.50 INCH       PRATT              KS   PUBLIC

            70 MPH WINDS AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL
            REPORTED BY EM EAST OF PRATT.

0849 PM     HAIL             3 S PRATT               37.60N 98.74W
09/24/2019  E1.50 INCH       PRATT              KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            70 MPH WINDS AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL
            REPORTED BY EM SOUTH OF PRATT.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
914 PM CDT TUE SEP 24 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0905 PM     HAIL             PRATT                   37.65N 98.74W
09/24/2019  E1.75 INCH       PRATT              KS   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORT VIA SOCIAL MEDIA OF GOLF BALL
            SIZE HAIL IN PRATT.

&&

RML

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
915 PM CDT TUE SEP 24 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0849 PM     HAIL             3 S PRATT               37.60N 98.74W
09/24/2019  E1.75 INCH       PRATT              KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            CORRECTS PREVIOUS HAIL REPORT FROM 3 S
            PRATT. 70 MPH WINDS AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL
            REPORTED BY EM SOUTH OF PRATT.

&&

RML

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
916 PM CDT TUE SEP 24 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0849 PM     HAIL             4 E PRATT               37.65N 98.67W
09/24/2019  E1.75 INCH       PRATT              KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            CORRECTS PREVIOUS HAIL REPORT FROM 4 E
            PRATT. 70 MPH WINDS AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL
            REPORTED BY EM EAST OF PRATT.

&&

RML

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
956 PM CDT TUE SEP 24 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0952 PM     TSTM WND GST     7 NNW WILMORE           37.42N 99.28W
09/24/2019  M60 MPH          KIOWA              KS   ASOS

&&

MR