Areal Flood Warning 7, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
530 AM CDT Wed May 8 2019

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Wed May 8 2019

Models this morning were in good agreement with increasing low
level moisture across southwest Kansas while keeping a surface
boundary south central Kansas and northwest Oklahoma. Given the
depth of the low level moisture forecast this afternoon across
southwest Kansas do not think much, if any, sunshine will be
possible late today. The exception will be near the Oklahoma
border and in portions of south central Kansas. Based on limited
sun today will trend towards keeping temperatures on the cool side
and undercut the coolest guidance for all but extreme south
central Kansas.

Afternoon thunderstorms still look likely today as an upper level
trough, associated with the left exit region of a 250mb jet,
crosses southwest Kansas during the afternoon. Also noticing a -15
to -18c 500mb cool pool being present this afternoon over the
surface boundary with CAPE values in excess of 2000 j/kg. 0-6km
shear supporting rotating updrafts so the potential exists that
some severe thunderstorms near our surface boundary as the 500mb
cool pool passes...should the atmosphere recover early this
afternoon. Precipitable water values not nearly as high as the
past few days but still the NAM had around one inch over south
central Kansas so would not be surprised to see some localized
heavy rainfall will also be possible with these storms. Given all
this it appears that south central Kansas will once again be
looking at another chance for severe thunderstorms later today.
Golf ball hail, and strong winds. Even an isolated tornado can not
be ruled out given for forecast low level shear. Brief heavy
rainfall will also create a localized flash flood hazard given the
saturated grounds across most of south central Kansas.

Skies will stay mostly cloudy overnight as cooler air continues
to invade southwest Kansas. Temperatures will fall back into the
30s by early Thursday morning. Those with sensitive plants,
especially west and north of Garden City should be prepared for
near 35 degree temperatures early Thursday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Wed May 8 2019

As a cutoff upper low develops over southern California late week
another upper level wave will move from the based of this
developing cutoff low and eject it into the Central Plains. As
this next upper wave passes during the day on thursday there
appears to be enough moisture and lift for a rain showers the day
across western Kansas. Cloud cover and the chance for some light
precipitation will keep temperatures on the cool side. Highs at
this time on Thursday currently appear to be mainly in the 50 to
55 degree range.

Gardeners should be prepared for some near freezing temperatures
early Friday morning. With some partly to mostly clear skies and
light winds the conditions are favorable for lows Friday morning
ranging from the low to mid 30s.

Unseasonably cool temperatures will continue Friday and Saturday
but warmer temperatures are still on track to return for late this
weekend and early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 523 AM CDT Wed May 8 2019

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected today. The best
chance for these storms to impact the Liberal, Dodge City and
Garden City airport will be from 15z to 21z Thursday. The IFR and
LIFR ceilings early this morning will gradually improve into the
MVFR category after 18z Thursday. Areas of fog reducing
visibilities to less than one mile will be possible until 15z.
Northeast winds at 10 to 15 knots early this morning will become
northwest by late day. Tonight ceilings will lower once again into
the IFR/LIFR category as gusty north winds of near 20 knots
develop.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 329 AM CDT Wed May 8 2019

There will be a chance for some moderate to heavy rainfall across
south central Kansas today as an upper level trough crosses the
Central Plains. Precipitable water values are not as high as the
past few days but given how saturated the ground is will continue
with the flash flood watch for today. The area with the greatest
likelihood for this heavier rainfall will be east of highway 183.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  60  38  50  35 /  70  10  20   0
GCK  57  38  49  33 /  70  10  30  10
EHA  60  38  50  36 /  30  30  30  10
LBL  63  38  50  36 /  40  20  20  10
HYS  58  39  51  35 /  60  20  30   0
P28  70  43  53  39 /  40  30  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ this morning for
KSZ030-031-043>045-061>064-074>078-084>087.

Flash Flood Watch through this evening for KSZ065-066-079>081-
088>090.

&&

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert
HYDROLOGY...Burgert

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
447 AM CDT Wed May 8 2019

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-091000-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
447 AM CDT Wed May 8 2019 /347 AM MDT Wed May 8 2019/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...south
central...southwest and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Day 1 Discussion
----------------

Thunderstorms will be possible today across southwest and south
central Kansas. A few of these storms will be capable of producing
Quarter to Golf ball size hail. Across south central Kansas an
isolated tornado can not be ruled out. Brief periods of moderate
to heavy rainfall may also lead to localized flooding across south
central Kansas.

Day 1 Hazards
-------------
* Tornado: Elevated risk
* Hail: Elevated risk
* Thunderstorm wind damage: Elevated risk
* Flooding: Elevated risk
* Lightning: Elevated risk
* Non-thunderstorm wind: Limited risk

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Days 2-7 Discussion
-------------------

Temperatures will fall back into the 30s by early Thursday morning
across much of southwest Kansas. Temperatures around 35 degrees
will be possible west and north of the Garden City area.

Friday morning temperatures will be in the low to mid 30s west of
a Larned to Ashland line.

Days 2-7 Hazards
----------------
* Thursday
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk
  - Freeze: Significant risk

* Friday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Freeze: Significant risk

* Saturday
  No hazards.

* Sunday
  No hazards.

* Monday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

* Tuesday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required south of a Larned to Dodge
City to Meade line during the afternoon.

&&

For more details visit our webpage http://weather.gov/ddc/ehwo

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