Severe Thunderstorm Warning 81, NWS Cheyenne, WY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
230 PM MDT Sat Jun 8 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 230 PM MDT Sat Jun 8 2019

Bit of convection firing over Laramie county currently and expect
this to continue the rest of the afternoon while expanding to the
northeast. A couple stronger storms not out of the question but
activity will be elevated in nature. Showers and a few storms will
then work gradually east across the Panhandle this evening as an
upper trough works across the region. Clearing skies and light
winds later tonight will allow temperatures out west to fall
well into the 30s and given the time of year have opted to post a
frost advisory for lower elevations there for late tonight into
Sunday morning. Clouds should hold on long enough east of the mtns
to limit cooling there. Sunday and Monday look to be mild and
mainly dry with the CWA residing under a wnw flow aloft. Another
chilly morning Monday which may necessitate additional advys.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 230 PM MDT Sat Jun 8 2019

Cooler then normal temperatures to start the beginning and middle of
the week but a warming trend will ensue by late week. A dry will
start off the week but a more active and unsettled pattern will
occur by late week that will bring several rounds of showers and
thunderstorms to Wyoming and Nebraska. Will need to monitor for snow-
melt and mountain creek rises towards the back half of the week.

Northwest flow pattern will be in place across the northern and
central Rockies early to mid-week that will keep temperatures near
to just below normal. Overall moisture and theta-e profiles will be
limited in the northwest flow and thus overall precipitation
coverage will be minimal Tuesday into Wednesday. Another weak trough
will shift across NV/UT late week and allow for more westerly to
southwest flow aloft with slightly greater vertical moisture
advection into the region. Greater precipitation coverage likely by
late week into the weekend as a series of disturbances Fujiwara
in the split flow across the western CONUS. Will need monitor the
late week and weekend for pockets of heavy rain and any impacts
for swelling rivers/creeks.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1136 AM MDT Sat Jun 8 2019

A cold front passing over the area will bring lower ceilings and
showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Anticipate showers and
thunderstorms to be light to moderate. Ceilings should only drop
to MVFR criteria in areas of showers. Winds will also increase in
response to the front and shift to a more northeasterly direction.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 230 PM MDT Sat Jun 8 2019

Much cooler weather will settle over the area overnight once skies
clear. Scattered showers are expected this evening with a few
storms possible mainly over the southern Panhandle this evening.
Dry and mild conditions can be expected Sunday through Monday then
a gradual warming trend is expected after that.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 254 AM MDT Sat Jun 8 2019

Rivers and streams across southeast Wyoming will continue to be
elevated this weekend before some cooler air moves into the area,
which will limit the melting of the mountain snowpack. The
Encampment River west of Saratoga is the latest river to enter
action stage, but is forecast to remain below flood stage this
weekend. The Laramie River and the upper North Platte are expected
to remain below flood stage as well even though the upper North
Platte may get close early this morning and early Sunday morning.
Area rivers may lower below action stage Tuesday and Wednesday due
to the cooler air over the area.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM MDT Sunday for WYZ109-110-113-
     115.

NE...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...JSA
AVIATION...CW
FIRE WEATHER...RE
HYDROLOGY...TJT/CLH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1127 AM MDT Sat Jun 8 2019

NEZ054-055-WYZ119-091100-
Kimball-Cheyenne-East Laramie County-
1127 AM MDT Sat Jun 8 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of western
Nebraska and southeast Wyoming.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are expected over the
area this afternoon into this evening. Some potential exists for a
couple storm to become strong with hail the main threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.Spotter information statement...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NEZ019>021-WYZ106>108-115>118-091100-
Scotts Bluff-Banner-Morrill-
Central Laramie Range and Southwest Platte County-
East Platte County-Goshen County-Laramie Valley-
South Laramie Range-South Laramie Range Foothills-
Central Laramie County-
1127 AM MDT Sat Jun 8 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of western
Nebraska and southeast Wyoming.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are expected this
afternoon into tonight.  No severe storms are expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.Spotter information statement...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

NEZ002-003-095-096-WYZ101>105-109>114-091100-
Dawes-Box Butte-North Sioux-South Sioux-
Converse County Lower Elevations-Niobrara County-
North Laramie Range-Ferris/Seminoe/Shirley Mountains-
Shirley Basin-Central Carbon County-North Snowy Range Foothills-
Southwest Carbon County-Sierra Madre Range-
Upper North Platte River Basin-Snowy Range-
1127 AM MDT Sat Jun 8 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of western
Nebraska...east central Wyoming...south central Wyoming and
southeast Wyoming.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.Spotter information statement...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
317 PM MDT SAT JUN 8 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 PM     HAIL             3 SE CHEYENNE           41.11N 104.75W
06/08/2019  E0.88 INCH       LARAMIE            WY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

RUBIN