Severe Thunderstorm Warning 384, NWS Cheyenne, WY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
304 PM MDT Fri Aug 23 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 302 PM MDT Fri Aug 23 2019

Severe Thunderstorm Watch for all of the Nebraska Panhandle and
all counties with exception of Carbon in southeast Wyoming till 10
PM MDT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 134 PM MDT Fri Aug 23 2019

Based off the latest satellite and radar imagery, a lower cloud
deck across much of the NE Panhandle is slowly eroding as diurnal
cumulus begins to build shaping the area up for another round of
showers and thunderstorms some severe this afternoon. A slight
risk by the SPC with all three main severe types of hail, damaging
winds, and an isolated tornado threat are possible. A watch of
some sort may be warranted later today so keep monitoring
weather.gov/cys for the latest forecast information.

The upper level trough in association with the threat of storms
today will continue eastward with overall deep bulk shear from 30
kt to 45 kt behind it and 10 to 20 knots ahead of it. The slower
storm motion will be sufficient enough to warrant some flooding
concerns as precipitable water values remain under an inch over SE
WY and an inch to 1.2 inches over the NE Panhandle. Strong
surface-based CAPE suggest upwards of 4500 J/kg over SE WY for
strong to severe potential even with daytime highs barely reaching
into the low 80s and higher dewpoints over the west central part
of the Panhandle in the mid 60s. POP and QPF fields were generated
using a blend of the NAMNEST, HRRR, and NBM. Conditions will dry
up and become clearer later this evening.

Fire weather wise, breezy winds and low RHs across western Carbon
County have been persistent and consistent enough to warrant a red
flag warning for FWZ 303 and 304 in western Carbon County till 8
PM MDT tonight. Similar conditions will continue for Saturday and
Sunday with winds on Sunday gusting across Carbon County from the
mid 30s to the low 40s. Those winds coupled with low RH values
will be sufficient for quick fire growth and fire intensity.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 245 AM MDT Fri Aug 23 2019

Latest models/ensembles are in good agreement with a increasing west
to northwest flow aloft as a upper trough over west/central Canada
gradually builds south and east into the north-central CONUS this
weekend into early next week. This system will push a fairly strong
cold front for this time of year south and east into the CWA Sunday
night/early Monday. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will
accompany the frontal passage Sunday night east of the Wyoming Front
Range. The remainder of the long term will be dry, except for widely
scattered showers and thunderstorms from the southeast Wyoming plains
into the Nebraska Panhandle. Temperatures will average 5 to 10 degrees
below seasonal normals.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1151 AM MDT Fri Aug 23 2019

VFR Conditions will continue at all terminal until later in the
afternoon when VCTS is possible in the KCYS and KLAR terminals.
Expect gusty winds to continue in the Panhandle this afternoon
ahead of the convection that will develop in Southeast Wyoming
before it heads toward Nebraska after 0Z. Nebraska terminals
should expect MVFR conditions during the VCTS between 01Z-03Z
where thunderstorms will be. Overnight, the winds will shift and
possible fog conditions between 08Z-12Z for KSNY could cause IFR
for that terminal. Expect skies to clear up after sunrise due to
mixing in the lower levels of the atmosphere.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 134 PM MDT Fri Aug 23 2019

With a stalled frontal boundary across the region this afternoon,
can expect convective initiation to continue as showers and
thunderstorms have already formed based off of the KCYS radar.
Breezy and dry conditions under threshold levels may be possible
across western Carbon County today though better chances for fire
weather conditions are slated for Saturday and Sunday. Sunday
winds will be stronger gusting up into the mid 40s especially
across Carbon County and RH values in the lower teens will make
for quick fire growth and intensity should any occur. Another cold
front will drop through the region on Monday cooling temperatures
and adding in moisture to raise RH levels and precipitation
chances.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Saturday for WYZ303>305.

     Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
     for WYZ303>305-309-310.

     Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for WYZ303-304.

NE...None.
&&

UPDATE...WM
SHORT TERM...WM
LONG TERM...MAJ
AVIATION...BW
FIRE WEATHER...WM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
307 PM MDT Fri Aug 23 2019

NEZ002-003-019>021-054-055-095-096-WYZ101>103-105-110-113>115-
240800-
Dawes-Box Butte-Scotts Bluff-Banner-Morrill-Kimball-Cheyenne-
North Sioux-South Sioux-Converse County Lower Elevations-
Niobrara County-North Laramie Range-Shirley Basin-
North Snowy Range Foothills-Upper North Platte River Basin-
Snowy Range-Laramie Valley-
307 PM MDT Fri Aug 23 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of western
Nebraska...east central Wyoming...south central Wyoming and
southeast Wyoming.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

Severe thunderstorm watch is in effect till 10 PM MDT. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms possible with locally heavy rain, large
hail, and damaging winds possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms possible over the
extended period. Some storms may be severe.

.Spotter information statement...

Spotter activation is likely while spotters are encouraged to
relay any hail, winds, damage from winds, and flooding to the
Cheyenne, Wyoming National Weather Service.

WYZ104-109-111-112-240800-
Ferris/Seminoe/Shirley Mountains-Central Carbon County-
Southwest Carbon County-Sierra Madre Range-
307 PM MDT Fri Aug 23 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Wyoming.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms possible today.
Most storms will remain below severe thresholds though small hail,
brief heavy rains, and gusty winds likely.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

High fire weather chances Saturday and Sunday. Please see Red Flag
Warning and Fire Weather Watch for further information.

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms possible over the
extended period. Some storms may be severe.

.Spotter information statement...

Spotters are encouraged to relay any hail, winds, damage from
winds, and flooding to the Cheyenne, Wyoming National Weather
Service.

WYZ106>108-116>119-240800-
Central Laramie Range and Southwest Platte County-
East Platte County-Goshen County-South Laramie Range-
South Laramie Range Foothills-Central Laramie County-
East Laramie County-
307 PM MDT Fri Aug 23 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Wyoming.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

Severe thunderstorm watch is in effect till 10 PM MDT. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms possible with locally heavy rain, large
hail, and damaging winds possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

High fire danger expected on Sunday with a Fire Weather Watch in
effect.

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms possible over the
extended period. Some storms may be severe.

.Spotter information statement...

Spotter activation is likely while spotters are encouraged to
relay any hail, winds, damage from winds, and flooding to the
Cheyenne, Wyoming National Weather Service.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
412 PM MDT Fri Aug 23 2019

WYZ101-103-232245-
Converse County Lower Elevations-North Laramie Range-
412 PM MDT Fri Aug 23 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN ALBANY AND SOUTHWESTERN
CONVERSE COUNTIES...

At 412 PM MDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Little Medicine
School, or 27 miles southeast of Casper, moving northwest at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail are possible with this
storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northern Albany and
southwestern Converse Counties.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They can relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Cheyenne.

LAT...LON 4251 10584 4242 10599 4244 10603 4244 10608
      4257 10608 4280 10607
TIME...MOT...LOC 2212Z 144DEG 16KT 4250 10603

Braun

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>