Severe Thunderstorm Warning 327, NWS Cheyenne, WY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
233 PM MDT Thu Aug 15 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 233 PM MDT Thu Aug 15 2019

A couple strong to severe storms moving across northern Goshen
county presently. These likely set off by the southern fringe of a
shortwave moving across South Dakota as well as a diffuse outflow
boundary. Some question as to how far they will progress into the
Panhandle the rest of the afternoon. Of more concern is the
likelihood for another round of strong convection later this
evening/tonight up north as another shortwave passes by, a
similar setup to last night. Activity should move out of the CWA
very late tonight or early Friday morning.

Friday and Saturday will continue to have a chance for convection
mainly east of the mtns but should be isolated. Sufficient shear
and instability for a few strong to severe storms but forcing
remaining rather low.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 233 PM MDT Thu Aug 15 2019

A warmer and mainly dry weather regime should build into the area
Sunday into early next as the upper high builds over the region
and the stronger westerlies lift well north of the area. Chances
for isolated mainly late day showers and storms should return by
midweek as a bit of moisture lifts northward into the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1055 AM MDT Thu Aug 15 2019

Nocturnal thunderstorms and low flight categories look to return
to the Nebraska Panhandle and KCYS tonight...similar to what we
had this morning. HRRR guidance showing this as well as LAMP MOS
guidance. Generally followed both of these forecast tools for the
18Z TAFs today. Looks like KAIA could get hit pretty good this
evening as HRRR simulated radar shows a severe storm moving
through KAIA around 08Z. Still too early to put that in the KAIA
TAF...but later shifts may need to add.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 233 PM MDT Thu Aug 15 2019

Little change is seen in the weather conditions through the
weekend with critical to near critical conditions looking to
remain confined to southwestern Carbon county. Another round of
showers and storms is expected mainly over east central Wyoming
across the northern Nebraska panhandle tonight with more isolated
activity east of the mountains Friday and Saturday. Mainly dry
and warmer conditions will move in Sunday and continue into early
next week.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for WYZ304.

     Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening
     for WYZ304.

NE...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...RE

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1043 AM MDT Thu Aug 15 2019

NEZ002-003-019-021-095-096-WYZ101-102-107-108-161000-
Dawes-Box Butte-Scotts Bluff-Morrill-North Sioux-South Sioux-
Converse County Lower Elevations-Niobrara County-
East Platte County-Goshen County-
1043 AM MDT Thu Aug 15 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of western
Nebraska...east central Wyoming and southeast Wyoming.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Isolated thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon with a few
strong storms possible. A somewhat greater threat for scattered
strong to severe storms is expected later tonight with large hail
the main threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

Widely scattered showers and storms are expected mainly on Friday,
with a few of the storms possibly becoming severe, mainly over the
Nebraska Panhandle.

.Spotter information statement...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NEZ020-054-055-WYZ103>106-109>119-161000-
Banner-Kimball-Cheyenne-North Laramie Range-
Ferris/Seminoe/Shirley Mountains-Shirley Basin-
Central Laramie Range and Southwest Platte County-
Central Carbon County-North Snowy Range Foothills-
Southwest Carbon County-Sierra Madre Range-
Upper North Platte River Basin-Snowy Range-Laramie Valley-
South Laramie Range-South Laramie Range Foothills-
Central Laramie County-East Laramie County-
1043 AM MDT Thu Aug 15 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of western
Nebraska...south central Wyoming and southeast Wyoming.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible into this evening
but the severe threat is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.Spotter information statement...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
253 PM MDT THU AUG 15 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0234 PM     HAIL             23 N TORRINGTON         42.40N 104.18W
08/15/2019  M1.00 INCH       GOSHEN             WY   PUBLIC

&&

WILLS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
315 PM MDT THU AUG 15 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0306 PM     HAIL             14 NNE TORRINGTON       42.25N 104.08W
08/15/2019  M2.00 INCH       GOSHEN             WY   STORM CHASER

            2 INCH HAIL OBSERVED BY STORM CHASER.

&&

WILLS

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