Severe Thunderstorm Warning 286, NWS Cheyenne, WY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1238 PM MDT Sat Aug 3 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 1233 PM MDT Sat Aug 3 2019

Tonight...Will need to watch our northern counties through this
evening with CAPE above 2000 J/kg and bulk shear values near 40
knots. A few strong to severe thunderstorms possible there. Still
an absence of cumulus there as of early afternoon though. Isolated
thunderstorms possible through early evening.

Sunday...Looks like a surface low develops across southeast Wyoming
in the afternoon, and with low level convergence and a theta-e
ridge axis in place, thunderstorm coverage will increase with
isolated to scattered thunderstorms from Laramie to Alliance and
nearby locations.

Monday...Shower and thunderstorm coverage will increase again as a
shortwave trough moves overhead in the afternoon in northwest flow
aloft, and we see an increase in low and mid level moisture. Thus,
expect scattered to numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms in
the afternoon and evening. Temperatures will be cooler with
increased cloud cover and better coverage of showers and
thunderstorms.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 1233 PM MDT Sat Aug 3 2019

Tuesday...Slightly warmer and a bit drier with less low and mid
level moisture and warmer temperatures aloft.

Wednesday-Saturday...Mostly zonal flow aloft. With adequate low and
mid level moisture in place, expect isolated to scattered afternoon
and evening showers and thunderstorms each day. The warmest day will
be on Wednesday, with slightly cooler temperatures Thursday through
Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1123 AM MDT Sat Aug 3 2019

We left vicinity thunderstorms in for Cheyenne and Scottsbluff as
there seems to be some agreement in the convective allowing models
to have some buildups those areas mid to late afternoon, and this
matches fairly well with what we are seeing trend-wise with the
first set of Cu towers going up in visible satellite imagery. We
also have some buildups coming off the Snowy Range that could
produce some showers eventually around Laramie. Otherwise, VFR
expected through tonight. Didn't hit a repeat of fog tonight in
the Nebraska Panhandle, although dewpoints remain high (in the
60s) and later data might suggest having some mention of IFR for
Alliance, Scottsbluff and Sidney with later issuances.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1233 PM MDT Sat Aug 3 2019

Minimal concerns based on projected winds and humidities, which
will likely remain within critical thresholds.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...JG
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
357 AM MDT Sat Aug 3 2019

NEZ002-003-095-096-WYZ101-102-107-108-041000-
Dawes-Box Butte-North Sioux-South Sioux-
Converse County Lower Elevations-Niobrara County-
East Platte County-Goshen County-
357 AM MDT Sat Aug 3 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of western
Nebraska...east central Wyoming and southeast Wyoming.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms possible in a
marginal risk of severe thunderstorms having hail and winds main
threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

General thunderstorm to marginal risk of severe weather possible
over the next couple days with hail, winds, and heavy rainfall
biggest concerns.

.Spotter information statement...

Spotters are encouraged to report their precipitation, wind
damage, and/or hail to the National Weather Service Office in
Cheyenne, Wyoming.

NEZ019>021-054-055-WYZ103>106-109>119-041000-
Scotts Bluff-Banner-Morrill-Kimball-Cheyenne-North Laramie Range-
Ferris/Seminoe/Shirley Mountains-Shirley Basin-
Central Laramie Range and Southwest Platte County-
Central Carbon County-North Snowy Range Foothills-
Southwest Carbon County-Sierra Madre Range-
Upper North Platte River Basin-Snowy Range-Laramie Valley-
South Laramie Range-South Laramie Range Foothills-
Central Laramie County-East Laramie County-
357 AM MDT Sat Aug 3 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of western
Nebraska...south central Wyoming and southeast Wyoming.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

General, non-severe thunderstorms possible this afternoon into the
early evening. Small hail and brief gusty winds be main concern.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

General thunderstorm to marginal risk of severe weather possible
over the next couple days with hail, winds, and heavy rainfall
biggest concerns.

.Spotter information statement...

Spotters are encouraged to report their precipitation, wind
damage, and/or hail to the National Weather Service Office in
Cheyenne, Wyoming.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
330 PM MDT Sat Aug 3 2019

WYZ101-102-032215-
Converse County Lower Elevations WY-Niobrara County WY-
330 PM MDT Sat Aug 3 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN NIOBRARA AND EAST
CENTRAL CONVERSE COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM MDT...

At 328 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms in southern Niobrara county. One strong storm was
located 7 miles northwest of Lusk with a second storm located 5
miles north of Lost Springs, both moving southeast at 15 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Lusk, Manville and Keeline.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4280 10497 4299 10496 4292 10433 4263 10453
TIME...MOT...LOC 2128Z 295DEG 10KT 4285 10473

Lyons

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
359 PM MDT Sat Aug 3 2019

NEZ020-WYZ108-118-119-032245-
Banner NE-Goshen County WY-Central Laramie County WY-
East Laramie County WY-
359 PM MDT Sat Aug 3 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN BANNER...SOUTHEASTERN
GOSHEN AND NORTHEASTERN LARAMIE COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM MDT...

At 359 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles northwest of Meriden Rest Area, or 31 miles south of
Torrington, moving east at 15 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
La Grange, Hawk Springs Recreation Area, Hawk Springs Campground and
Hawk Springs.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4152 10445 4169 10452 4183 10415 4158 10404
TIME...MOT...LOC 2159Z 251DEG 11KT 4164 10440

Lyons

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