Severe Thunderstorm Warning 271, NWS Cheyenne, WY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
830 PM MDT Mon Jul 29 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 823 PM MDT Mon Jul 29 2019

Quick grid update mainly for fire weather. The Red Flag Warning
for this evening has expired as fire weather conditions have
calmed down. Humidities will start to recover later tonight in the
40 to 50% range before decreasing again tomorrow mid morning.
Went ahead and issued the Red Flag Warning upgrade from the Fire
Weather Watch for tomorrow. Winds look a little bit stronger
based on the latest runs from the HRRR and NBM. The widespread red
flag conditions in zone 304 today should verify easily for
tomorrow.

For the rest of tonight, cooler temperatures with lows in the 50s
and 60s are expected along with some high clouds. Westerly flow
aloft will help dry things out a bit tomorrow with just isolated
thunderstorm activity possible east of the laramie range in the
afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 225 PM MDT Mon Jul 29 2019

Some convection firing over eastern Converse county attm and
expect this activity to increase a bit more the rest of the
afternoon as it moves eastward. A few strong storms possible with
strong wind gusts looking the main threat. This in response to a
weak impulse riding over the top of the 4 corners upper high.
Activity should move across mainly the northern Neb Panhandle into
this evening with otherwise quiet weather expected elsewhere the
rest of the night.

Similar setup on Tuesday but the upper high looks to strengthen a
bit over the area with convection looking more confined to the
mtns near the Colorado border Tuesday afternoon as some warming
at mid levels hinder development. Temperatures remaining quite
warm across the CWA Tuesday with maxs in the mid 80s to mid 90s
outside of the mtns.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 225 PM MDT Mon Jul 29 2019

Monsoonal moisture should begin returning more in earnest Weds and
persist through the weekend as the upper high meanders around the
4 corners area. This will bring back pretty much daily chances
for mainly afternoon and evening showers and tstms to the CWA,
currently looking most widespread on Thursday and Friday as a push
of cooler air moves down the high plains. Temps rebound a bit
over the weekend but remaining close to seasonal averages.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 538 PM MDT Mon Jul 29 2019

Most terminals will remain VFR today and tonight as a strong are
of high pressure settles in to the west. Low level moisture and
thunderstorms will push east later tonight with only a very low
chance of IFR conditions mainly across the panhandle. SCT to BKN
high level clouds will develop tomorrow keeping conditions VFR at
all terminals.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 225 PM MDT Mon Jul 29 2019

Critical or near-critical Fire Weather conditions will continue over
mainly southwest Carbon county into this evening, and likely
develop again Tuesday afternoon due to gusty winds and dry air.
Moisture will then increase over the region Wednesday with showers
and storms becoming more likely Wednesday and especially Thursday,
with cooler temperatures also helping to alleviate concerns then.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Tuesday for WYZ304.

NE...None.
&&

UPDATE...AL
SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...AL
FIRE WEATHER...RE

Hazardous Weather Outlook...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
332 AM MDT Mon Jul 29 2019

WYZ103>106-109>118-300915-
North Laramie Range-Ferris/Seminoe/Shirley Mountains-
Shirley Basin-Central Laramie Range and Southwest Platte County-
Central Carbon County-North Snowy Range Foothills-
Southwest Carbon County-Sierra Madre Range-
Upper North Platte River Basin-Snowy Range-Laramie Valley-
South Laramie Range-South Laramie Range Foothills-
Central Laramie County-
332 AM MDT Mon Jul 29 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Wyoming and southeast Wyoming.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Gusty winds, warm temperatures and very low humidities will create
elevated to critical fire weather conditions west of the Laramie
Range this afternoon. A Red Flag Warning is in effect from noon
until 8 PM for southwest Carbon County.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

Warm, breezy and very dry conditions will continue Tuesday for
lower elevations west of the Laramie Range. A Fire Weather Watch
is in effect from 10 AM through 8 PM for southwest Carbon County.

Isolated afternoon thunderstorms will be possible over the Sierra
Madre, Snowy and southern Laramie ranges Tuesday. Scattered mainly
afternoon and evening thunderstorms are forecast Wednesday through
the weekend. The threat for severe weather is low.

.Spotter information statement...

Spotter activation will not be required.

NEZ002-003-019>021-054-055-095-096-WYZ101-102-107-108-119-300915-
Dawes-Box Butte-Scotts Bluff-Banner-Morrill-Kimball-Cheyenne-
North Sioux-South Sioux-Converse County Lower Elevations-
Niobrara County-East Platte County-Goshen County-
East Laramie County-
332 AM MDT Mon Jul 29 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of western
Nebraska...east central Wyoming and southeast Wyoming.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Widely scattered thunderstorms will develop late this afternoon
and continue through this evening. Isolated strong thunderstorms
with hail and gusty winds will be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

Isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms will develop Tuesday.
A strong thunderstorm or two with hail and gusty winds will be
possible.

Scattered mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms are forecast
Wednesday through the weekend. The threat for severe weather is
low.

.Spotter information statement...

Spotter activation will not be required.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
904 PM MDT MON JUL 29 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0544 PM     HAIL             4 N MARSLAND            42.50N 103.31W
07/29/2019  E1.50 INCH       DAWES              NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
909 PM MDT MON JUL 29 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0756 PM     HAIL             14 NNW ANGORA           42.05N 103.21W
07/29/2019  M1.75 INCH       BOX BUTTE          NE   STORM CHASER

            GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL NEAR KILPATRICK LAKE.

&&

MB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
942 PM MDT Mon Jul 29 2019

WYZ102-108-300415-
Goshen County WY-Niobrara County WY-
942 PM MDT Mon Jul 29 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN NIOBRARA AND
NORTHEASTERN GOSHEN COUNTIES UNTIL 1015 PM MDT...

At 942 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Prairie Center, or 19 miles southeast of Lusk, moving northeast at 25
mph.

Nickel size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Prairie Center and Van Tassell.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Cheyenne.

&&

LAT...LON 4242 10430 4257 10441 4280 10406 4245 10406
TIME...MOT...LOC 0342Z 242DEG 23KT 4253 10423

Hammer

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1015 PM MDT Mon Jul 29 2019

NEZ095-096-WYZ108-300500-
North Sioux NE-South Sioux NE-Goshen County WY-
1015 PM MDT Mon Jul 29 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL SIOUX AND NORTHEASTERN
GOSHEN COUNTIES UNTIL 1100 PM MDT...

At 1014 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Harrison to 10 miles west of Agate Bed
National Monument. Movement was east at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Harrison and Agate Bed National Monument.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Cheyenne.

&&

LAT...LON 4294 10357 4219 10347 4234 10416 4257 10418
      4260 10405 4270 10402
TIME...MOT...LOC 0414Z 253DEG 21KT 4263 10393 4241 10399

Hammer

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