Severe Thunderstorm Warning 265, NWS Cheyenne, WY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
226 PM MDT Mon Jul 29 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 225 PM MDT Mon Jul 29 2019

Some convection firing over eastern Converse county attm and
expect this activity to increase a bit more the rest of the
afternoon as it moves eastward. A few strong storms possible with
strong wind gusts looking the main threat. This in response to a
weak impulse riding over the top of the 4 corners upper high.
Activity should move across mainly the northern Neb Panhandle into
this evening with otherwise quiet weather expected elsewhere the
rest of the night.

Similar setup on Tuesday but the upper high looks to strengthen a
bit over the area with convection looking more confined to the
mtns near the Colorado border Tuesday afternoon as some warming
at mid levels hinder development. Temperatures remaining quite
warm across the CWA Tuesday with maxs in the mid 80s to mid 90s
outside of the mtns.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 225 PM MDT Mon Jul 29 2019

Monsoonal moisture should begin returning more in earnest Weds and
persist through the weekend as the upper high meanders around the
4 corners area. This will bring back pretty much daily chances
for mainly afternoon and evening showers and tstms to the CWA,
currently looking most widespread on Thursday and Friday as a push
of cooler air moves down the high plains. Temps rebound a bit
over the weekend but remaining close to seasonal averages.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 1118 AM MDT Mon Jul 29 2019

VFR conditions expected to persist through the period. Wdly sctd
showers and storms possible mainly late this afternoon into this
evening, mainly north of the North Platte River Valley. Brief gusty
and MVFR vsbys possible in stronger storms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 225 PM MDT Mon Jul 29 2019

Critical or near-critical Fire Weather conditions will continue over
mainly southwest Carbon county into this evening, and likely
develop again Tuesday afternoon due to gusty winds and dry air.
Moisture will then increase over the region Wednesday with showers
and storms becoming more likely Wednesday and especially Thursday,
with cooler temperatures also helping to alleviate concerns then.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for WYZ304.

     Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for WYZ304.

NE...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...RE
FIRE WEATHER...RE

Hazardous Weather Outlook...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
332 AM MDT Mon Jul 29 2019

WYZ103>106-109>118-300915-
North Laramie Range-Ferris/Seminoe/Shirley Mountains-
Shirley Basin-Central Laramie Range and Southwest Platte County-
Central Carbon County-North Snowy Range Foothills-
Southwest Carbon County-Sierra Madre Range-
Upper North Platte River Basin-Snowy Range-Laramie Valley-
South Laramie Range-South Laramie Range Foothills-
Central Laramie County-
332 AM MDT Mon Jul 29 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Wyoming and southeast Wyoming.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Gusty winds, warm temperatures and very low humidities will create
elevated to critical fire weather conditions west of the Laramie
Range this afternoon. A Red Flag Warning is in effect from noon
until 8 PM for southwest Carbon County.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

Warm, breezy and very dry conditions will continue Tuesday for
lower elevations west of the Laramie Range. A Fire Weather Watch
is in effect from 10 AM through 8 PM for southwest Carbon County.

Isolated afternoon thunderstorms will be possible over the Sierra
Madre, Snowy and southern Laramie ranges Tuesday. Scattered mainly
afternoon and evening thunderstorms are forecast Wednesday through
the weekend. The threat for severe weather is low.

.Spotter information statement...

Spotter activation will not be required.

NEZ002-003-019>021-054-055-095-096-WYZ101-102-107-108-119-300915-
Dawes-Box Butte-Scotts Bluff-Banner-Morrill-Kimball-Cheyenne-
North Sioux-South Sioux-Converse County Lower Elevations-
Niobrara County-East Platte County-Goshen County-
East Laramie County-
332 AM MDT Mon Jul 29 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of western
Nebraska...east central Wyoming and southeast Wyoming.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Widely scattered thunderstorms will develop late this afternoon
and continue through this evening. Isolated strong thunderstorms
with hail and gusty winds will be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

Isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms will develop Tuesday.
A strong thunderstorm or two with hail and gusty winds will be
possible.

Scattered mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms are forecast
Wednesday through the weekend. The threat for severe weather is
low.

.Spotter information statement...

Spotter activation will not be required.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
322 PM MDT Mon Jul 29 2019

NEZ055-292145-
Cheyenne NE-
322 PM MDT Mon Jul 29 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN CHEYENNE COUNTY
UNTIL 345 PM MDT...

At 322 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Sidney, moving southeast at 15 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Sidney, Lodgepole, Colton, Sunol and Sidney Airport.

This includes Interstate 80 in Nebraska between mile markers 55 and
77.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Cheyenne.

&&

LAT...LON 4100 10269 4100 10297 4112 10307 4124 10289
      4114 10260 4106 10261
TIME...MOT...LOC 2122Z 320DEG 15KT 4113 10292

Hammer

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
433 PM MDT Mon Jul 29 2019

NEZ095-292300-
North Sioux NE-
433 PM MDT Mon Jul 29 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN SIOUX COUNTY UNTIL
500 PM MDT...

At 433 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Harrison, or 33 miles east of Lusk, moving east at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Harrison.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Cheyenne.

&&

LAT...LON 4270 10392 4285 10386 4281 10355 4259 10364
TIME...MOT...LOC 2233Z 283DEG 16KT 4275 10379

Hammer

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
501 PM MDT Mon Jul 29 2019

NEZ002-095-292330-
Dawes NE-North Sioux NE-
501 PM MDT Mon Jul 29 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL DAWES AND
NORTHEASTERN SIOUX COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM MDT...

At 501 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles southeast of Montrose, or 33 miles west of Chadron, moving
northeast at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of west central Dawes
and northeastern Sioux Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Cheyenne.

&&

LAT...LON 4284 10336 4273 10368 4286 10377 4300 10361
      4300 10348
TIME...MOT...LOC 2301Z 238DEG 22KT 4282 10365

Hammer