Severe Thunderstorm Warning 259, NWS Cheyenne, WY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
222 PM MDT Fri Jul 26 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 222 PM MDT Fri Jul 26 2019

Fairly quiet so far this afternoon with convection firing mostly
just south and east of the CWA. Outflow boundary along the se
Wy/Co border has set off a few storms but they are tending to die
out after the boundary passes. best chance for convection still
looks to be around the mtns and close to the Co border into this
evening though noting some Cu formation along the Pine Ridge.

Should see more widespread convection over the CWA Sat afternoon
and evening as a decent shortwave passes across and interacts with
a sfc boundary along the mtns. A few stronger storms possible
given instability and some shear. Activity may continue into the
night as the wave moves into the Neb Panhandle. Otherwise a bit
cooler over the plains Saturday as a weak surface high settles
over the northern plains.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 222 PM MDT Fri Jul 26 2019

Looking like a drier pattern over the CWA Sunday and Monday as an
upper high builds over the 4 corners area and warms the mid
levels a bit. Monsoonal moisture then makes a return Tuesday
onward bringing chances for mainly aftn/evng showers and storms
back to the area the rest of the week. temperatures remaining
seasonably warm.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1140 AM MDT Fri Jul 26 2019

The main concern with this portion of the forecast is where the
convection will develop this afternoon. Latest surface analysis
was showing northerly to northeast flow east of the Laramie Range.
This type of flow is not conducive to thunderstorm development at
this time. However, the models are trying to show this flow
turning more easterly as the afternoon wears on in response to the
surface low strengthening. This will may allow for some isolated
convection to develop along the Laramie Range late in the day.
However, confidence is still rather low at this point.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 222 PM MDT Fri Jul 26 2019

Fire weather concerns should remain low into early next week with
min RHs staying above critical levels. There will be sctd to
numerous showers and storms most likely Saturday afternoon and
evening. Drier conditions are expected Sunday and Monday before
chances for rain return Tuesday.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...REC
FIRE WEATHER...RE

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
517 AM MDT Fri Jul 26 2019

NEZ002-003-019>021-054-055-095-096-WYZ106>108-116>119-271130-
Dawes-Box Butte-Scotts Bluff-Banner-Morrill-Kimball-Cheyenne-
North Sioux-South Sioux-
Central Laramie Range and Southwest Platte County-
East Platte County-Goshen County-South Laramie Range-
South Laramie Range Foothills-Central Laramie County-
East Laramie County-
517 AM MDT Fri Jul 26 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of western
Nebraska and southeast Wyoming.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon through
late this evening. A few of these thunderstorms may become strong
and contain hail, strong gusty winds, and frequent lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

Thunderstorms will become more numerous Saturday with some strong
to marginally severe storms possible.

.Spotter information statement...

Spotter activation will not be required at this time.

WYZ101>105-109>115-271130-
Converse County Lower Elevations-Niobrara County-
North Laramie Range-Ferris/Seminoe/Shirley Mountains-
Shirley Basin-Central Carbon County-North Snowy Range Foothills-
Southwest Carbon County-Sierra Madre Range-
Upper North Platte River Basin-Snowy Range-Laramie Valley-
517 AM MDT Fri Jul 26 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of east central
Wyoming...south central Wyoming and southeast Wyoming.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A few thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and later tonight
as another cold front moves into the area. Overall, the
probability for widespread weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

Thunderstorms will increase in coverage for Saturday with some
strong to marginally severe storms possible.

.Spotter information statement...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
415 PM MDT Fri Jul 26 2019

NEZ055-262245-
Cheyenne NE-
415 PM MDT Fri Jul 26 2019

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

At 415 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles south of Lisco, or 18 miles west of Oshkosh, moving southeast
at 5 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northeastern
Cheyenne County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4129 10282 4142 10276 4140 10263 4139 10261
      4118 10262
TIME...MOT...LOC 2215Z 293DEG 5KT 4133 10269

Brothers

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
420 PM MDT Fri Jul 26 2019

WYZ103-106-262245-
Central Laramie Range and Southwest Platte County WY-
North Laramie Range WY-
420 PM MDT Fri Jul 26 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL ALBANY AND WEST
CENTRAL PLATTE COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM MDT...

At 419 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 13
miles southeast of Garrett, or 22 miles west of Wheatland, moving
southeast at 20 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of east central Albany
and west central Platte Counties.

LAT...LON 4203 10548 4210 10532 4190 10506 4178 10536
TIME...MOT...LOC 2219Z 323DEG 17KT 4200 10538

Brothers

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
430 PM MDT Fri Jul 26 2019

WYZ106-117-118-262300-
Central Laramie Range and Southwest Platte County WY-
Central Laramie County WY-South Laramie Range Foothills WY-
430 PM MDT Fri Jul 26 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN LARAMIE COUNTY UNTIL
500 PM MDT...

At 429 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Iron Mountain, or 29 miles northeast of Laramie, moving northeast at
10 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northwestern
Laramie County.

This includes Interstate 25 in Wyoming between mile markers 38 and
41.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4147 10519 4165 10515 4157 10483 4142 10503
TIME...MOT...LOC 2229Z 212DEG 9KT 4151 10509

Brothers

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