Severe Thunderstorm Warning 171, NWS Cheyenne, WY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
324 PM MDT Thu Jul 4 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 234 PM MDT Thu Jul 4 2019

...Severe storms expected this Afternoon and Evening...

A Tornado Watch is now in effect for much of southeast Wyoming and
north half of the Nebraska Panhandle now till 10pm MDT this
evening. Main storm hazards will be large hail up to the size of
baseballs, damaging straight-line winds of 60 to 70 mph, and a few
tornadoes will all be possible. In addition, frequent lightning,
and localized heavy rainfall will also be a concern with all the
outdoor activities on this holiday afternoon and evening. Storms
are starting to initiate in Albany County now and will shift north
and east through 11pm into the Nebraska Panhandle.

Latest meso-analysis depicts growing MLCAPE values of 2000-2500
J/Kg for the High Plains and into Albany County. Convective
inhibition has eroded enough over Albany and on the west flank of
the persistent cloud cover from this morning in Platte and
northwest Laramie County. In addition, storms will become more
robust in Converse County over the hour as well. Supportive
deep layer effective shear of of 45 to 50 knots and
climatologically lower than normal LCLs & LFCs will favor surface
boundary layer rooted rotating updrafts. Backed winds of the east
to southeast are helping yield weak to moderate low- level wind
shear initially this afternoon. However, low- level winds should
increase more into the afternoon and help support greater vertical
vorticity stretching for an increased tornado risk 4-10pm.

Storm mode will initially be discrete to semi-=discrete
supercells with a trend towards up-scale growth to clustering this
evening. Discrete cells will capable of all hazard types,
especially large hail. An upscale growth to clustering could help
focus cold pools into stronger wind hazard through the evening,
especially across Converse and Niobrara County.

Storms will shift north and east through the afternoon and evening
and diminish in coverage mostly through the evening. However,
additional clustering along a semi-organized complex could also
shift across Converse, Niobrara, into the northern Nebraska
Panhandle through 3am Friday morning.

Another round of strong to severe storms will again be possible
Friday as favorable instability and shear again combine with
southwest flow aloft ahead of a shortwave trough traversing
northern WY into the North-Central Plains. Overall coverage will
likely be lower Friday then today but high winds and large hail
could occur once again in far east WY and portions of the NE
Panhandle.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 238 AM MDT Thu Jul 4 2019

Continued unsettled pattern into Saturday with more afternoon and
evening storms with Sunday less active. However will make a quick
return to the storms Monday as a quick moving shortwave trough across
the central and northern Rockies. Subtle differences will need to
be monitored mid week as a H5 ridge becomes established across
the central of the CONUS. WY/NE may be just on the northeast side
of this suppressing ridge that could allow for diurnal driven
showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1111 AM MDT Thu Jul 4 2019

Ceilings have been down to IFR at many sites this morning due to a
persistent low stratus deck. It is having difficulty eroding with
daytime heading and is still affecting KBFF and KSNY. KSNY is also
down to IFR for visibility. This should taper off by 1 PM today.

Active rest of the day across all sites. Numerous thunderstorms
will develop early this afternoon and will continue through
tonight. Some could be severe. Large hail is possible at and near
KCDR, KBFF, KAIA, and KCYS. Gusty winds will also be possible in
stronger thunderstorms. A few tornadoes cannot be ruled out, but
higher confidence is in hail today.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Flash Flood Watch until midnight MDT tonight for WYZ102-108.

NE...Flash Flood Watch until midnight MDT tonight for NEZ002-003-
     019>021-095-096.

&&

SHORT TERM...JSA
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...CW

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
329 AM MDT Thu Jul 4 2019

NEZ002-003-019>021-054-055-095-096-WYZ101>119-050930-
Dawes-Box Butte-Scotts Bluff-Banner-Morrill-Kimball-Cheyenne-
North Sioux-South Sioux-Converse County Lower Elevations-
Niobrara County-North Laramie Range-
Ferris/Seminoe/Shirley Mountains-Shirley Basin-
Central Laramie Range and Southwest Platte County-
East Platte County-Goshen County-Central Carbon County-
North Snowy Range Foothills-Southwest Carbon County-
Sierra Madre Range-Upper North Platte River Basin-Snowy Range-
Laramie Valley-South Laramie Range-South Laramie Range Foothills-
Central Laramie County-East Laramie County-
329 AM MDT Thu Jul 4 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of western
Nebraska...east central Wyoming...south central Wyoming and
southeast Wyoming.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A slight to enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms exists this
afternoon and evening across most of the region east of Carbon
County.

A Flash Flood Watch is in effect from 3 PM MDT to midnight for
most of the Nebraska Panhandle as well as Niobrara and Goshen
Counties of southeast Wyoming.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will develop this afternoon
and continue into the overnight hours tonight. Some of the storms
will likely become severe, producing quarter size hail or larger
as well as wind gusts in excess of 60 mph. Some of the
thunderstorms will produce locally heavy rain and possible flash
flooding due to their slow movement.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

Isolated to scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms can be
expected nearly every day. There is a marginal risk of severe
thunderstorms for Friday and Saturday, as a few of the storms may
become severe, producing large hail and damaging winds.

.Spotter information statement...

Spotter activation may be necessary this afternoon and evening.

Rubin

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