Severe Thunderstorm Warning 152, NWS Cheyenne, WY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
437 PM MDT Tue Jul 2 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 230 PM MDT Tue Jul 2 2019

Expect sctd showers and tstms currently around the mtns to
progress east and northeast through early this evening but may
have some difficulty progressing much across the Neb Panhandle.
Shear and instability not impressive but once again a few strong
storms possible, most likely up north. Activity should dissipate
late this evening.

Should see pretty much a repeat for Weds with convection firing
again initially over the mtns then moving over the plains. Best
area looks to be over northern parts of the CWA closer to a
shortwave that will clip that area. A weak sfc boundary may also
help to enhance activity a bit.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 230 PM MDT Tue Jul 2 2019

Looks like pretty much a persistence fcst through early next week
as the upper pattern changes very little. Expect sctd mainly
afternoon and evening showers and tstms most days as weak impulses
lift across the region. The airmass may dry out some early next
week as some drier air from the desert sw may advect over the
region. Otherwise a cool front looks to pass across early Friday
bringing a cool down for Friday and Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 430 PM MDT Tue Jul 2 2019

Thunderstorms expected once again this evening for a few airports.
Nailing down specific airports...used the latest short term
guidance...namely HRRR and HIRES. Looks like KBFF and KAIA look to
be the two locations that could see storms moving over the
airports. Have TEMPO groups in for both TAFs this evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 230 PM MDT Tue Jul 2 2019

No significant changes are expected for the rest of the week
with warm temperatures and pretty much daily chances for mainly
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. A cool front will
move across Thursday night bringing cooler conditions Friday and
Saturday. Fire weather concerns remaining quite low.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 310 AM MDT Tue Jul 2 2019

Additional rainfall and snowmelt over the next several days could
bring levels back to action stage, but the heaviest rain looks to
stay to the east of the mountain ranges.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...RE
HYDROLOGY...RUBIN

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1040 AM MDT Tue Jul 2 2019

NEZ002-003-019>021-054-055-095-096-WYZ101>119-030930-
Dawes-Box Butte-Scotts Bluff-Banner-Morrill-Kimball-Cheyenne-
North Sioux-South Sioux-Converse County Lower Elevations-
Niobrara County-North Laramie Range-
Ferris/Seminoe/Shirley Mountains-Shirley Basin-
Central Laramie Range and Southwest Platte County-
East Platte County-Goshen County-Central Carbon County-
North Snowy Range Foothills-Southwest Carbon County-
Sierra Madre Range-Upper North Platte River Basin-Snowy Range-
Laramie Valley-South Laramie Range-South Laramie Range Foothills-
Central Laramie County-East Laramie County-
1040 AM MDT Tue Jul 2 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of western
Nebraska...east central Wyoming...south central Wyoming and
southeast Wyoming.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Isolated to scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms are
expected. A few of the thunderstorms may become strong to severe
later this afternoon into this evening, with hail and strong wind
gusts the main threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

Chances for afternoon and evening thunderstorms will continue each
day, with some strong to severe thunderstorms possible on the
Fourth of July. The least coverage of late day thunderstorms will
be next Sunday and Monday.

.Spotter information statement...

Spotter activation is not expected.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
301 PM MDT TUE JUL 2 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     HAIL             4 NW ESTERBROOK         42.45N 105.42W
07/01/2019  M1.25 INCH       CONVERSE           WY   PUBLIC

&&

WILLS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
304 PM MDT Tue Jul 2 2019

WYZ101-022145-
Converse County Lower Elevations WY-
304 PM MDT Tue Jul 2 2019

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

At 303 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 18
miles north of Rolling Hills, or 30 miles northeast of Casper, moving
northeast at 25 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northwestern
Converse County.

LAT...LON 4324 10535 4291 10598 4291 10608 4324 10607
      4347 10558
TIME...MOT...LOC 2103Z 238DEG 22KT 4316 10591

Brothers

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
324 PM MDT Tue Jul 2 2019

WYZ103-106-022215-
Central Laramie Range and Southwest Platte County WY-
North Laramie Range WY-
324 PM MDT Tue Jul 2 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN ALBANY AND
SOUTHWESTERN PLATTE COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM MDT...

At 324 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 17
miles southwest of Bordeaux, or 21 miles southwest of Wheatland,
moving northeast at 5 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northeastern Albany
and southwestern Platte Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4178 10520 4183 10535 4199 10533 4196 10502
TIME...MOT...LOC 2124Z 204DEG 6KT 4185 10527

Mokry

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
330 PM MDT Tue Jul 2 2019

WYZ101-103-107-022215-
East Platte County WY-Converse County Lower Elevations WY-
North Laramie Range WY-
330 PM MDT Tue Jul 2 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN ALBANY...
NORTHWESTERN PLATTE AND SOUTHEASTERN CONVERSE COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM
MDT...

At 329 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 7 miles southeast of Douglas to Esterbrook
Campground. Movement was east at 15 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Esterbrook Campground and Esterbrook.

This includes Interstate 25 in Wyoming between mile markers 117 and
135.

LAT...LON 4280 10501 4231 10512 4239 10550 4272 10540
TIME...MOT...LOC 2129Z 270DEG 13KT 4270 10527 4242 10534

Brothers

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
338 PM MDT Tue Jul 2 2019

WYZ101-022215-
Converse County Lower Elevations WY-
338 PM MDT Tue Jul 2 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL CONVERSE COUNTY
UNTIL 415 PM MDT...

At 338 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 21
miles south of Pine Tree Junction, or 31 miles south of Wright,
moving northeast at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of north central
Converse County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4348 10534 4320 10562 4328 10584 4350 10578
      4350 10543
TIME...MOT...LOC 2138Z 209DEG 21KT 4332 10569

Brothers

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
418 PM MDT Tue Jul 2 2019

WYZ101>103-106-107-022300-
East Platte County WY-
Central Laramie Range and Southwest Platte County WY-
Converse County Lower Elevations WY-North Laramie Range WY-
Niobrara County WY-
418 PM MDT Tue Jul 2 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN NIOBRARA...
NORTHEASTERN ALBANY...NORTHWESTERN PLATTE AND SOUTHEASTERN CONVERSE
COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM MDT...

At 418 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 7 miles northwest of Glendo to 7 miles south of
Laramie Peak. Movement was east at 20 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Glendo, Esterbrook Campground, Esterbrook, Sibley Peak, Westview
Circle, Glendo Reservoir, Two Moon Campground, Laramie Peak and
Harris Park.

This includes Interstate 25 in Wyoming between mile markers 82 and
126.

LAT...LON 4268 10466 4204 10500 4211 10556 4265 10526
TIME...MOT...LOC 2218Z 265DEG 18KT 4255 10516 4216 10539

Brothers