Severe Thunderstorm Warning 137, NWS Cheyenne, WY

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
542 PM MDT Sun Jun 30 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 240 PM MDT Sun Jun 30 2019

So far its quiet across the CWA as convection has to this point remained
to the north, and over the mtns of Colorado. Latest HRRR still showing
convection developing/moving in over the se Wy mtns by late afternoon
and becoming most widespread across EC Wy into the northern Panhandle
early this evening. Some heavy rain potential still exists with
any storms as they will not be moving fast so will have to keep an
eye on that. Activity clears out later tonight. Milder day across
the plains Monday as a sfc front remains banked up against the
mtns with another round of convection initiating over the mtns in
the afternoon. Not as much instability though and shear will be
less so severe potential looks fairly low. Similar setup again for
Tuesday with lee troughing over the high plains helping to focus
convection.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 240 PM MDT Sun Jun 30 2019

Overall pattern changes little through next weekend with weak
disturbances moving by and allowing for daily chances for showers
and storms. Temperatures look to be a bit below seasonal averages
through the period with a cooler air mass settling southward out
of central Canada into the northern part of the country.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 542 PM MDT Sun Jun 30 2019

For the 00Z aviation package, some of the model guidance is still
bringing down ceilings to IFR ranges for Chadron and Alliance
after 09Z. Surface dewpoints still running high that area and
forecast soundings show indications of a low stratus deck towards
morning, so we went with persistence that area and brought
ceilings down again at Chadron toward morning, and think tonight
there is a bit higher probability for Alliance, Scottsbluff and
potentially Sidney. Otherwise, we don't expect a great coverage of
thunderstorms this evening given instability trends but have kept
vcnty and periods of showers and thunderstorms going for Cheyenne
and Laramie, as well as Sidney unti 05Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 240 PM MDT Sun Jun 30 2019

Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low this week with
mild to warm temperatures and daily chances for showers and
thunderstorms, with conditions remaining non-critical.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 202 AM MDT Sun Jun 30 2019

Still monitoring the North Platte River at Saratoga, but the river
has finally fallen below action stage. Additional rainfall and
snowmelt over the next several days could bring levels back to
action stage, but the heaviest rain looks to stay to the east of
the mountain ranges.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...JG
FIRE WEATHER...RE
HYDROLOGY...CW

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
348 AM MDT Sun Jun 30 2019

NEZ002-003-019>021-054-055-095-096-WYZ101-102-107-108-118-119-
011000-
Dawes-Box Butte-Scotts Bluff-Banner-Morrill-Kimball-Cheyenne-
North Sioux-South Sioux-Converse County Lower Elevations-
Niobrara County-East Platte County-Goshen County-
Central Laramie County-East Laramie County-
348 AM MDT Sun Jun 30 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of western
Nebraska...east central Wyoming and southeast Wyoming.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Severe thunderstorms are likely this afternoon. Large hail and
damaging winds are the main concerns for southeast Wyoming and the
Nebraska Panhandle, but tornadoes are also possible in the
northern Nebraska Panhandle.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

Thunderstorms and heavy rain are possible Monday, and then rain
chances continue through the rest of the week.

.Spotter information statement...

Spotter activation will be needed.

WYZ103>106-109>117-011000-
North Laramie Range-Ferris/Seminoe/Shirley Mountains-
Shirley Basin-Central Laramie Range and Southwest Platte County-
Central Carbon County-North Snowy Range Foothills-
Southwest Carbon County-Sierra Madre Range-
Upper North Platte River Basin-Snowy Range-Laramie Valley-
South Laramie Range-South Laramie Range Foothills-
348 AM MDT Sun Jun 30 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Wyoming and southeast Wyoming.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Severe thunderstorms are possible with hail and damaging winds
being the main concerns.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

Thunderstorms and heavy rain are possible on Monday and then rain
chances remain through the rest of the week.

.Spotter information statement...

Spotter activation may be needed.

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