Red Flag Warning 15, NWS Cheyenne, WY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1149 AM MDT Sat Aug 24 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 340 AM MDT Sat Aug 24 2019

Overnight GOES-16 WV/IR loop showed the mid/upper level trough
progressing through eastern WY. Most of the convection observed
earlier over the Nebraska Panhandle had exited to the east. There
were a few weak showers developing ahead of a cool front over
southeast Wyoming. Moist southerly flow ahead of the front with
dewpoints in the 50s and low 60s and light winds will yield some
low ceilings and patchy fog toward daybreak.

The trough and front will continue their eastward trek across
High Plains this morning, allowing drier air to spread east
as well. It will be breezy west of the Laramie Range with westerly
700mb winds up to 30 kt. High temperatures will be in the mid 70s
to mid 80s, with 60s for the mountains. Sunday will be 5 to 10
degrees warmer with 700mb temperatures from 14 to 18 Celsius.
Westerly winds will increase Sunday afternoon ahead of a stronger
front and upper trough to the north. Gusts of 35 to 45 mph will be
common west of the Laramie Range, with gusts of 25 to 35 mph
possible over southeast Wyoming. The cold front moves south
through the CWA Sunday night, with widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms developing over the plains.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Sat Aug 24 2019

It's shaping up to be a quieter week ahead with limited chances
for convection. After very warm temperatures Sunday, Monday will
be noticeably cooler in the wake of the cold front as 700mb
temperatures lower to 4 to 8 Celsius. It will be breezy west of
the Laramie Range. High temperatures will be in the 70s with 50s
and 60s mountains. A upper trough over the north-central CONUS
amplifies, with a reinforcing shot of cool air producing a slight
chance of showers for the plains. High temperatures Tuesday will
range from the upper 60s to mid 70s. For Wednesday and Thursday,
it will be warmer as 700mb temperatures rebound to 12 to 16
Celsius. Isolated late day showers and thunderstorms will be
possible Thursday as a backdoor front slips south and west into
the CWA. It will be slightly cooler Friday with widely scattered
showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1136 AM MDT Sat Aug 24 2019

Patchy low clouds out by KSNY will move off early this afternoon
as an upper level trough moves eastward. VFR conditions will
persist through the afternoon and evening elsewhere as dry air
moves in. Gusty winds will pick up Sunday afternoon and will be
included in subsequent updates with gusts above 25 kt from KCYS
westward.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 259 AM MDT Sat Aug 24 2019

Drier air will infiltrate areas along and east of the Laramie Range
today in the wake of a low pressure trough. Warm temperatures and
gusty westerly winds will maintain critical fire weather conditions
for much of Carbon County today. Windier conditions in advance of
a stronger trough and cold front will maintain high fire danger in
much of Carbon County Sunday, with critical fire weather conditions
possible for portions of southeast Wyoming Sunday. Cooler temperatures
are forecast Monday, with higher humidities across the high plains.
Low humidities and gusty winds will maintain the high fire danger for
much of Carbon County Monday. There will be slight chances for showers
and thunderstorms early and late next week.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for WYZ303>305.

     Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
     for WYZ303>305-309-310.

NE...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...MAJ
LONG TERM...MAJ
AVIATION...WM
FIRE WEATHER...MAJ

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