Winter Storm Warning 4, NWS State College, PA

960 
WWUS41 KCTP 031819
WSWCTP

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service State College PA
119 PM EST Sun Mar 3 2019


PAZ036-056>059-063>066-040630-
/O.CON.KCTP.WS.W.0004.000000T0000Z-190304T0800Z/
Franklin-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-
Lancaster-
Including the cities of Chambersburg, Newport, Harrisburg, 
Hershey, Pottsville, Lebanon, Carlisle, Gettysburg, York, 
and Lancaster
119 PM EST Sun Mar 3 2019

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow. Additional snow accumulations of 3 to 6 
  inches, with localized amounts up to 8 inches, are expected.

* WHERE...Portions of central Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...Until 3 AM EST Monday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on difficult travel conditions. Be 
  prepared for significant reductions in visibility at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The Pennsylvania Department of Transportation and Pennsylvania
Turnpike Commission strongly encourage motorists to heed all
travel restrictions and delay unnecessary travel. Visit
www.511pa.com for the latest travel, roadway and traffic
conditions.

&&

$$

PAZ006-011-012-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-040630-
/O.CON.KCTP.WW.Y.0021.190303T1900Z-190304T0700Z/
Potter-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-
Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-
Northumberland-Columbia-
Including the cities of Coudersport, Emporium, Renovo, Mansfield,
Wellsboro, Trout Run, Laporte, Lock Haven, Williamsport, 
Lewisburg, Selinsgrove, Danville, Sunbury, Shamokin, Bloomsburg, 
and Berwick
119 PM EST Sun Mar 3 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 5 
  inches are expected.

* WHERE...Portions of central Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...Until 2 AM EST Monday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Be 
  prepared for reduced visibilities at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The Pennsylvania Department of Transportation and Pennsylvania
Turnpike Commission remind motorists to adjust speeds based on
driving conditions as winter weather impacts Pennsylvania
roadways. Visit www.511pa.com for the latest travel, roadway and
traffic conditions.

&&

$$

PAZ010-017>019-024>028-033>035-040600-
/O.CON.KCTP.WW.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-190304T0600Z/
Elk-Clearfield-Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-
Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-
Including the cities of St. Marys, Ridgway, DuBois, Clearfield, 
Philipsburg, State College, Johnstown, Altoona, Huntingdon, 
Mount Union, Lewistown, Mifflintown, Somerset, Bedford, 
and McConnellsburg
119 PM EST Sun Mar 3 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches are
  expected. Localized heavier amounts in higher elevations
  possible. 

* WHERE...Portions of central Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...Until 1 AM EST Monday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Be 
  prepared for reduced visibilities at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The Pennsylvania Department of Transportation and Pennsylvania
Turnpike Commission remind motorists to adjust speeds based on
driving conditions as winter weather impacts Pennsylvania
roadways. Visit www.511pa.com for the latest travel, roadway and
traffic conditions.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
http://weather.gov/ctp

356 
WWUS41 KCTP 040555
WSWCTP

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service State College PA
1255 AM EST Mon Mar 4 2019

PAZ036-056>059-063>066-040700-
/O.CAN.KCTP.WS.W.0004.000000T0000Z-190304T0800Z/
Franklin-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-
Lancaster-
Including the cities of Chambersburg, Newport, Harrisburg, 
Hershey, Pottsville, Lebanon, Carlisle, Gettysburg, York, 
and Lancaster
1255 AM EST Mon Mar 4 2019

...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

Snow has tapered off across the region as of 1 am.

$$

PAZ006-011-012-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-040700-
/O.CAN.KCTP.WW.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-190304T0700Z/
Potter-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-
Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-
Northumberland-Columbia-
Including the cities of Coudersport, Emporium, Renovo, Mansfield,
Wellsboro, Trout Run, Laporte, Lock Haven, Williamsport, 
Lewisburg, Selinsgrove, Danville, Sunbury, Shamokin, Bloomsburg, 
and Berwick
1255 AM EST Mon Mar 4 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Snow has tapered off across the region as of 1 am.

$$

PAZ010-017>019-024>028-033>035-040700-
/O.CAN.KCTP.WW.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-190304T0600Z/
Elk-Clearfield-Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-
Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-
Including the cities of St. Marys, Ridgway, DuBois, Clearfield, 
Philipsburg, State College, Johnstown, Altoona, Huntingdon, 
Mount Union, Lewistown, Mifflintown, Somerset, Bedford, 
and McConnellsburg
1255 AM EST Mon Mar 4 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Snow has tapered off across the region as of 1 am.

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
http://weather.gov/ctp

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
417 AM EST Sun Mar 3 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
After a quiet night, a weather system will bring a period of
snow mainly to southern portions of the area Sunday afternoon
and night. Behind this system will be cold temperatures for
much of the next work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
No changes to going forecast this evening. Sct-bkn cloud cover
of mainly the high variety will prevail overnight, with dry
conditions expected throughout. Min temps will fall close to
average early March lows ranging from the upper teens north to
the upper 20s southeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
10 PM Update:
No changes to Sunday PM/Monday AM snow accums this evening.
Models continue to indicate a flatter wave bringing slightly
less QPF sunday PM into monday AM, with still the likelihood
that parts of south central southeast receive 5-6"+. Maintaining
Winter Storm Watches overnight and allow overnight shift to see
00z guidance before final headline decisions are made.

3 PM:
The main system of interest continues to be the southern
stream low slated to impact central PA Sunday and Sunday night.
Recent model/ensemble trends continue to nudge the storm track
southward, while also keeping its forward progression fairly
rapid. Correspondingly, earlier projected snowfall amounts have
dropped a bit. Given the synoptic back- drop of a broad eastern
CONUS trough, with a fast flow undercutting the eastern Canadian
vortex, along with a lack of north Atlantic blocking, the
latest model trends may sense.

Given above reasoning, we've converted a stripe of counties
along and just north of I-80 to a Winter Weather Advisory
(generally 2-4" anticipated). Farther south, given the amount of
uncertainty still present, we'll keep the Winter Storm Watch in
tact. A solid 4-6" of snow is still plausible for south-central
PA, with locally higher totals not out of the question. Overall,
though, rapid system motion and comparatively less impressive
frontal scale forcing (as compared to some previous storms this
season) should prevent this from being a "blockbuster"
snowstorm.

By early Monday, the synoptic snow should be gone, as the main
oceanic storm quickly pushes offshore. For the rest of the day
Monday and Monday night, a colder NW flow will gradually
develop. However, at the same time, the column also dries out.
Consequently, this should limit upslope/lake enhanced snow
showers/flurries across the northern tier and Allegheny ridges,
with at least partial clearing likely over the remainder of
central PA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Cold trof over the area for much of the extended with
temperatures below average. With the fast NW flow the area will
not see any significant weather systems and should remain dry
until Thursday. Milder weather system late in the week but may
hold of beyond Friday. Still a lot of uncertainty with how the
end of the extended period plays out.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Updated the TAFS here just after 4 AM.

Between the dry air working in overnight and the NW winds
holding up some, hard to see fog this morning. Thus took
the fog out.

Earlier discussion below.

06Z TAFS sent.

Ceilings rise to VFR for all but BFD overnight ahead of an
approaching winter storm system. But as winds relax further,
areas of MVFR fog are likely after midnight, esp toward sunrise.

The winter storm arrives from the SW on Sunday with some light
snow by late morning over the southern mountains spreading into
central and northeast portions of CWA midday. Heaviest snowfall
rates and period of widespread IFR conditions will be from
early afternoon into mid evening across the west and from
mid/late afternoon into the early morning over the east (though
some rain could mix in at LNS). Impacts will be a bit less over
the NW where snow will be lighter, while the southern mountains
and Susq Valley receive the brunt of the storm.

Conditions transition back to VFR fairly rapidly Monday morning
over the central and east as the storm pulls away. But westerly
flow will keep restrictions ongoing over the western higher
terrain through the day.

Outlook...

Mon...MVFR/sct SHSN poss W, No sig wx elsewhere.

Tue-Thu...MVFR poss NW, No sig wx elsewhere.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from noon today to 7 AM EST Monday for
PAZ012-017>019-041-042-045-046.
Winter Storm Watch from noon EST today through Monday morning
for PAZ049>053-057>059-065-066.
Winter Storm Watch from 10 AM EST this morning through Monday
morning for PAZ024>028-033>036-056-063-064.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Ross
NEAR TERM...Ross/DeVoir
SHORT TERM...Jurewicz
LONG TERM...Ross
AVIATION...Martin

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
332 PM EST Sat Mar 2 2019

PAZ049>053-057>059-065-066-032045-
Union-Snyder-Montour-Northumberland-Columbia-Dauphin-Schuylkill-
Lebanon-York-Lancaster-
332 PM EST Sat Mar 2 2019

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ024>028-033>036-056-063-064-032045-
Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-
Franklin-Perry-Cumberland-Adams-
332 PM EST Sat Mar 2 2019

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ004>006-010-011-037-032045-
Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Tioga-
332 PM EST Sat Mar 2 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ012-017>019-041-042-045-046-032045-
Northern Clinton-Clearfield-Northern Centre-Southern Centre-
Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-
332 PM EST Sat Mar 2 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST
MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Jurewicz