Special Weather Statement, NWS State College, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
246 PM EDT Tue Aug 20 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
It will remain very warm and humid through Wednesday. A warm
front lifting north across the state today will provide the
focus scattered, mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms.
A pair of cold fronts will push southeast through the state late
Wednesday into early Thursday bringing cooler and much less
humid air will that will last into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Radar showing convection starting to fire over the Laurel
highlands within an area of weak low level convergence. RAP
shows CAPE in the 1000-15000J range, but deep layer shear is
very weak, arguing against significant storm organization
potential. The storms are right on the gradient between
respectable Downdraft Cape and very DD Cape.

Over the remainder of the area, the beat goes on with another
day of very warm and humid conditions in place. There seems to
be very little focus to organize the convection, and the various
flavors of the HREF show the convection remaining scattered and
disorganized into the overnight.

Overall we expect mainly garden variety storms, but cannot rule
out an isolated damaging wind gust/large hail with some of the
more robust updrafts.

Max temps this afternoon will range from the low-mid 80s across
the northern and western mountain, to the L90s in the SE metro
areas.

Yet another warm/muggy night is on tap for tonight with partly
cloudy skies and isolated to scattered showers roaming the
region.

Min temps will be in the 60s...to around 70F in the SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Wednesday will see slightly higher probability for active
convection, mainly during the afternoon and evening as a more
vigorous upper shortwave and associated cold front pushes
southeast through the CWA late in the day and evening.

SPC has a broader MRGL Risk covering the majority of our CWA on
Wednesday, at the SW edge of a fairly large SLGT Risk area
across upstate NY and WRN New England.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Secondary SFC cfront and CFA dropping SE from the Glakes
Thursday should trigger a few afternoon showers/TSRA across
mainly the SE half of PA. 700 mb temps will likely cool off by
at least 2-3C during the day Thursday.

Look for refreshingly cooler max temps Thursday ranging from the
low to mid 70s over the Northern Mtns to the L-M 80s in the Susq
Valley. Rain risk will linger across south central PA on Friday
as the frontal boundary continues to sink southward into the
southern Mid Atlantic.

A sprawling area of Canadian high pressure should bring a
multi-day stretch of fair weather to central PA Saturday to
Monday. Temperatures will be near average with pleasant and
warm afternoons and comfortably cool nights.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Widespread VFR will continue into the evening, with only brief
restrictions this afternoon at terminals affected by the roaming
showers and thunderstorms.

Areas of low clouds and fog will form once again overnight,
before burning off within a couple of hours of sunrise Wed.

Showers and thunderstorms will once again boil up for Wednesday
afternoon and evening associated with a cold front. They will
have the potential to bring brief restrictions, gusty winds and
hail.

.Outlook...

Thu...PM thunderstorms southeast 1/2.

Fri...Chance of showers southern 1/4.

Sat-Sun...AM fog possible.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...La Corte
NEAR TERM...La Corte
SHORT TERM...La Corte
LONG TERM...Gartner/Steinbugl
AVIATION...La Corte

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
357 AM EDT Tue Aug 20 2019

PAZ024>026-033>036-064-210800-
Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Adams-
357 AM EDT Tue Aug 20 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Strong to severe thunderstorms with gusty winds, frequent lightning
and small hail are possible this afternoon and early this evening
as a warm front lifts north across the region.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-057>059-066-
210800-
Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield-
Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-
Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-
Northumberland-Columbia-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Lancaster-
357 AM EDT Tue Aug 20 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Strong to severe thunderstorms with gusty winds, frequent lightning
and small hail are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ027-028-056-063-065-210800-
Mifflin-Juniata-Perry-Cumberland-York-
357 AM EDT Tue Aug 20 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Strong to severe thunderstorms with gusty winds, frequent lightning
and small hail are possible this afternoon and early this evening, as
a warm front lifts north across the region.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Strong to severe thunderstorms with gusty winds, frequent lightning
and small hail are possible again Wednesday afternoon and evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

Lambert

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
601 PM EDT Tue Aug 20 2019

PAZ065-202230-
York PA-
601 PM EDT Tue Aug 20 2019

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF YORK COUNTY UNTIL 630
PM EDT...

At 600 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm over
Glen Rock, moving northeast at 10 mph.

Wind gusts 40 to 50 mph and pea size hail are possible.

Locations impacted include...
Red Lion, Spry, Dallastown, Shrewsbury, Wrightsville, Glen Rock,
Jacobus, Windsor, Yoe, Cross Roads, Railroad, Yorkana, Brogue, Shenks
Ferry, Safe Harbor, Loganville, East Prospect, Winterstown, Felton
and Airville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
lead to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through
flooded roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3979 7681 4004 7654 3999 7650 3997 7650
      3995 7648 3992 7640 3990 7638 3987 7638
      3985 7635 3983 7635 3974 7676
TIME...MOT...LOC 2200Z 236DEG 11KT 3980 7671

Banghoff