Snow Squall Warning 13, NWS State College, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
104 PM EST Tue Dec 31 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level disturbance will bring snow showers and localized
squalls to the region into this evening. Later tonight and
Wednesday, lake-effect snow showers and flurries will gradually
diminish with time. Weak high pressure will bring a dry, milder
day on Thursday. Rain will come back into the area for Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1250 pm update... Bands of organized snow showers are developing
over western NY and northwestern PA early this afternoon, as
expected. This convective activity will work its way across
portions of central PA as the afternoon wears on, coincident
with passage of a mid-level short-wave and surface trough. As
the atmosphere destabilizes, localized squalls remain a distinct
possibility, with the greatest likelihood of this occurrence
near and north of I-80. We will continue to closely monitor.

Later tonight, once the mid-level feature passes by, well
aligned westerly flow will bring lake-enhanced snow to
northwestern PA and upslope snow to the Alleghenies. A general
1-3" are expected in these areas, with locally higher amounts
possible in northwestern Warren County. South and east of the
northern mountains and the higher ridges west of State College
and Altoona, it will be mainly dry, thanks to large-scale
subsidence and downsloping.

Lows by daybreak will range from the mid 20s-lower 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
110 pm update... Lake-enhanced and upslope snows will slowly
diminish on Wednesday from south to north, as heights rise at
all levels, and dry/warm advection begin to kick in. By later in
the day, much of central PA should be seeing at least breaks of
sunshine. On the whole, however, it will still be a brisk and
seasonably cold day, with highs ranging from the upper 20s in
the northern mountains, to near 40 in the Lower Susquehanna
Valley.

Wednesday night-Thursday should be dry, as weak high pressure
builds across the Commonwealth. Skies should be clear-partly
cloudy Wednesday night, with thickening clouds anticipated by
Thursday afternoon, out ahead of our next system.

Given the onset of stronger low-level warm advection,
temperatures are not expected to fall very much Wednesday night,
with lows generally ranging in the 20s-near 30. Readings
Thursday should climb well into the 40s, particularly across the
Susquehanna Valley.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Upper level ridging is progged to build over the region late
Wednesday into Thursday, supplying a period of fair and mild
weather. All medium range guidance tracks a developing surface
low northeast into the Grt Lks late in the week, supporting
increasing confidence in rainy, mild conditions Thursday night
into early Saturday. With the surface high positioned off the
southeast coast, there is little risk of any mixed precipitation
with this event.

The trailing cold front will likely sweep through central Pa
late Saturday/early Sunday. A bit of lake effect snow is likely
behind this front. However, surface ridging is progged to build
in rapidly, keeping accumulations low. A clipper is currently
progged by the bulk of medium range guidance to track north of
Pa Sun night/Monday, perhaps accompanied by a period of light
snow over the northern counties.

There is plenty of model spread and forecast uncertainty early
next week. However, the 00Z NAEFS and ECENS both support the idea
of a digging upper trough over the midwest. Overrunning ahead
of this feature could potentially bring snow to parts of central
Pa by Tuesday of next week, as the GEFS plumes and EC ensemble
mean solution suggest.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
18z update... Bands of snow showers, and perhaps a few squalls,
could produce quick IFR to near field minimum restrictions later this
afternoon into the early evening (roughly 19-00z) for KBFD,
KJST, KAOO, KUNV, and KIPT. In the meantime, KMDT and KLNS
should remain unrestricted/VFR.

Tonight into Wednesday morning, restrictive conditions
(generally IFR) will prevail at KBFD and KJST in persistent
snow. Elsewhere (KUNV, KAOO, KIPT, KMDT, and KLNS), VFR should
be the dominant condition.

Surface winds will become strong and gusty out of the W-SW this
afternoon, then remain that way from the W overnight into
Wednesday. Gusts of 25-35 kt will be common. If any squalls
impact the terminal sites later this afternoon, brief gusts of
35-45 kt could occur.

.Outlook...

Thu...Mostly VFR.

Thu night-Fri...Restrictions developing in lower ceilings, rain,
and fog.

Sat-Sun...Restrictions likely at KBFD and KJST in snow showers,
with mostly VFR elsewhere.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Jurewicz
NEAR TERM...Jurewicz
SHORT TERM...Jurewicz
LONG TERM...Fitzgerald
AVIATION...Jurewicz/Tyburski

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
110 PM EST Tue Dec 31 2019

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>035-037-041-042-045-046-
049>053-058-011815-
Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield-
Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-
Juniata-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-
Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-
Northumberland-Columbia-Schuylkill-
110 PM EST Tue Dec 31 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Snow showers and localized squalls are expected this afternoon into
the early evening. Locally hazardous travel conditions may accompany
any squalls that occur.

Lake effect snow showers could bring additional accumulations late
tonight across the northern mountains and the Allegheny ridges, north
of Interstate 80 and west of Interstate 99.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ036-056-057-059-063>066-011815-
Franklin-Perry-Dauphin-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster-
110 PM EST Tue Dec 31 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Jurewicz

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
1036 AM EST Tue Dec 31 2019

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>035-037-041-042-045-046-
049>053-058-311800-
Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield-
Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-
Juniata-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-
Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-
Northumberland-Columbia-Schuylkill-
1036 AM EST Tue Dec 31 2019

...DANGEROUS TRAVEL POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

Dangerous travel along highways is possible this afternoon and
early evening as snow squalls should drop visibilities below a
half a mile with icy roadways.

Snow squalls will begin in northwestern Pennsylvania early this
afternoon. These squalls will move through the northern and west
central portions of the state through the afternoon and early
evening hours. The heaviest snowfall will be in the northwest
mountains with a quick one to two inches possible.

It is also possible snow squall warnings may be needed this
afternoon and early evening, possibly along US Route 6, I 80, I
99 and US route 15 north of Selinsgrove, as this snow moves
through. Expect the snow to transition to lake effect snow showers
by early this evening.

If traveling this afternoon, be alert to rapidly changing visibility.
Untreated roads could become covered with snow during periods of
heavier snow.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
1255 PM EST Tue Dec 31 2019

PAZ004-005-010-311915-
McKean PA-Warren PA-Elk PA-
1255 PM EST Tue Dec 31 2019

...A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW WILL AFFECT PARTS OF MCKEAN...WARREN...AND
ELK COUNTIES...

HAZARDS...A band of heavy snow accompanied by winds of up to 30 MPH
which can rapidly reduce visibility to near a quarter of a mile.

LOCATION AND MOVEMENT...At 1255 PM EST, a band of heavy snow was
along a line extending from near Ashford Hollow to 6 miles southwest
of Frewsburg to near Grove City and moving east at 40 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
St. Marys, Warren, Bradford, Ridgway, Kane, Johnsonburg, Port
Allegany, Sheffield, Columbus, Youngsville, Smethport, Wetmore,
Russell, Betula, Wilcox, James City, Force, Spring Creek, Benezette
and Rew.

SAFETY INFO...
Use extra caution if you must travel into or through this band of
heavy snow. Rapid changes in visibility and potentially slick roads
are likely to lead to accidents. Consider delaying travel until this
band of heavy snow passes your location.

A rapid drop in temperature may lead to the rapid formation of black
ice on area roadways. Black ice is nearly impossible to see and
roadways may appear wet. Please use extreme caution, especially on
bridges, overpasses and around curves. Allow plenty of stopping
distance and avoid braking suddenly.

&&

LAT...LON 4200 7821 4162 7820 4162 7841 4154 7842
      4140 7842 4140 7825 4123 7824 4125 7864
      4122 7865 4120 7871 4126 7874 4137 7896
      4134 7909 4145 7906 4144 7896 4162 7896
      4163 7961 4199 7961
TIME...MOT...LOC 1755Z 253DEG 36KT 4244 7860 4199 7925 4124 8013

Colbert/MJ/JC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
129 PM EST TUE DEC 31 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0112 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 2 N WARREN              41.87N  79.14W
12/31/2019  M59 MPH          WARREN             PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WIND GUST TO 59 MPH AND BRIEF WHITEOUT CONDITIONS.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1901865

COLBERT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
234 PM EST Tue Dec 31 2019

PAZ017-018-312030-
Northern Centre PA-Clearfield PA-
234 PM EST Tue Dec 31 2019

...AN AREA OF MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY SNOW WILL AFFECT PARTS OF
NORTHERN CENTRE AND CLEARFIELD COUNTIES...

HAZARDS...An area of moderate to briefly heavy snow that can rapidly
reduce visibility to near a quarter of a mile.

LOCATION AND MOVEMENT...At 232 PM EST, an area of moderate to heavy
snow was along a line extending from Penfield to 7 miles west of
Punxsutawney and moving east at 35 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DuBois, Clearfield, Sandy, Philipsburg, Woodland, Curwensville,
Penfield, Hyde, Osceola Mills, Plymptonville, Rockton, Chester Hill,
Karthaus, Houtzdale, Snow Shoe, North Philipsburg, Clarence, South
Philipsburg, Sandy Ridge and Moshannon.

For those driving on Interstate 80, this includes areas between the
Dubois and Milesburg exits, specifically from mile markers 97 to 154.

SAFETY INFO...
Use extra caution if you must travel into or through this area of
heavy snow. Rapid changes in visibility and potentially slick roads
are likely to lead to accidents. Consider delaying travel until this
area of heavy snow passes your location.

&&

LAT...LON 4114 7880 4118 7877 4122 7865 4124 7864
      4122 7810 4114 7801 4118 7797 4121 7797
      4121 7794 4125 7790 4118 7790 4118 7779
      4115 7779 4111 7775 4109 7763 4074 7823
      4072 7864 4077 7881
TIME...MOT...LOC 1932Z 256DEG 30KT 4121 7857 4096 7912

Colbert/MJ