Severe Thunderstorm Warning 99, NWS State College, PA

243 
WWUS51 KCTP 282156
SVSCTP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
556 PM EDT Tue May 28 2019

PAC043-282206-
/O.CAN.KCTP.SV.W.0099.000000T0000Z-190528T2215Z/
Dauphin PA-
556 PM EDT Tue May 28 2019

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN DAUPHIN COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM EDT for south central
Pennsylvania.

LAT...LON 4012 7651 4027 7645 4029 7617 4001 7631
TIME...MOT...LOC 2156Z 274DEG 36KT 4020 7636 

$$

PAC071-075-282215-
/O.CON.KCTP.SV.W.0099.000000T0000Z-190528T2215Z/
Lancaster PA-Lebanon PA-
556 PM EDT Tue May 28 2019

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM EDT
FOR NORTH CENTRAL LANCASTER AND SOUTHEASTERN LEBANON COUNTIES...

At 556 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Manheim, moving
east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Ping pong ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to trees, roofs, and siding.

Locations impacted include...
Lancaster, Lititz, Mount Joy, Manheim, East Petersburg, Cornwall,
Salunga-Landisville, Rothsville, Brickerville, Quentin, Penryn,
Franklin And Marshall College and Lancaster Airport.

This includes The Pennsylvania Turnpike from mile markers 265 to 279.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM EDT for south central
Pennsylvania.

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4012 7651 4027 7645 4029 7617 4001 7631
TIME...MOT...LOC 2156Z 274DEG 36KT 4020 7636 

HAIL...1.50IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Banghoff

546 
WWUS51 KCTP 282213
SVSCTP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
613 PM EDT Tue May 28 2019

PAC071-075-282222-
/O.EXP.KCTP.SV.W.0099.000000T0000Z-190528T2215Z/
Lancaster PA-Lebanon PA-
613 PM EDT Tue May 28 2019

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL LANCASTER AND
SOUTHEASTERN LEBANON COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 615 PM EDT...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM EDT for south central
Pennsylvania.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
State College PA.

LAT...LON 4012 7651 4027 7645 4029 7617 4001 7631
TIME...MOT...LOC 2212Z 274DEG 36KT 4019 7617 

$$

Banghoff

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
125 PM EDT Tue May 28 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A wavy front over the state will waggle north and south through
the next few days. This will keep a chance of showers and
thunderstorms across the region into at least Thursday. The
threat of severe weather and even some flooding is also a daily
concern.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
Posted FFA for the western few counties where many models and
ensemble suites peg with repeated thunderstorms through tonight.
PWATs are very high ~2 standard deviations above normal. Lots of
rain (but generally fast moving things up to this point) these
last few days. Ground not toally saturated, but very wet. SLGT
risk of excessive rainfall in the outlook from WPC continues. It
may take another 2-3 hrs for more widespread convection to go
up as cu field to our west is minor. But, little measles are
already on the radar over all of wrn PA. Cap likely keeping them
down for now, but heating in between the clouds should make
them grow.

Prev...
The second line of storms this morning has morphed into a wide
area but still has some embedded, elevated thunder. The activity
should dwindle shortly, but cannot rule out some lingering
showers for the late morning and early aftn, esp along and N of
I-80. However, forcing is lacking for a few hours and rain-
cooled air should keep the storms at bay for a little wile.
However, the atmos is still expected to destabilize over the
entire area this aftn and early this evening. Most likely time
for storms to fire is between 3 and 5 PM. Line of discrete cells
is a good call with the mode of convection, but the repeated,
albeit brief, heavy rains could lead to a higher threat of flash
flooding. SPC keeps ENH risk over the entire area for later
today and SLGT risk of excessive rainfall also in the SW part of
the CWA, and MRGL elsewhere.

From last disco...
This situation looks extremely similar to this past Thursday
when we had to wait out the morning convection/rainfall from the
dying MCS and then wait for the retarded daytime heating to
juice things up to pop the really nasty sfc/mixed layer-based
stuff. Shear is quite strong today as the morning convection is
assocd with a 45-50KT LLJet, and 8H flow remains 40+KTs into the
evening. The second round of convection will last into the
evening while dropping slowly to the south across most/all of
the area.

Still some variation in how warm it gets today. Two days ago
the GFS guidance looked too cool for today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Again, the convection could linger across the south into the
late evening hours.

While dewpoints fall off some by Wednesday morning, there is a
threat of more strong to severe storms, given the upper level
pattern.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Still looking at more showers and storms past Wednesday, but
some hope of seeing dry weather again by later Friday into
Saturday.

Cooler and less humid conditions by late in the week, as a
strong cold front drops southeast of the area.

Precip chances begin to pick up again Sunday as next wave drops
down across the Great Lakes, sharpening the trough.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Line of showers along the warm front will move east of the CWA
shortly. Low clouds/IFR still running the show at BFD, but the
wind should pick up out of the SW soon. JST already gusty and
AOO almost there, too. But, the eastern terminals will stay
lighter through the next few hours and perhaps all day until
prompted/pushed around by TSRA.

Prev...
Showers continue to stretch north to south across the region and
will continue to move west to east through the first half of the
morning. These showers have brought around 0.10 to 0.25 inch of
precipitation early this morning. These showers have brought
primarily MVFR cigs and vsbys, through there have been periods
of IFR at JST.

Periods of IFR remain still possible at BFD. Especially since
it has FEW006 with MVFR vsbys and that it is still raining. So
expect that rainfall and the low level moisture and upslope flow
to allow for periods of IFR between 11Z to 15Z.

Model soundings also indicate a period of marginal low level
wind shear is possible Tuesday morning, as strong winds aloft
overspread the state.

Once the showers move through this morning there will be a
brief period of settled weather appears likely during late
morning and early afternoon, as the warm front lifts north of
the area.

Scattered strong thunderstorms are likely to develop mid to late
in the afternoon and continue into the mid evening. Late in the
afternoon and evening looks like the most dangerous time for
aviation concerns with numerous thunderstorms sliding southward
through the airspace.

.Outlook...

Wed...AM low cigs possible W Mtns. Scattered PM tsra impacts
possible southern Pa.

Thu...AM low cigs possible W Mtns. Scattered PM tsra impacts
possible.

Fri-Sat...No sig wx expected.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for PAZ017-024-033.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Dangelo
NEAR TERM...Dangelo/Martin
SHORT TERM...Dangelo/Martin
LONG TERM...Martin
AVIATION...Dangelo/Ceru

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
119 PM EDT Tue May 28 2019

PAZ004>006-010>012-018-019-025>028-034>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066-291730-
Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Northern Centre-
Southern Centre-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Bedford-Fulton-
Franklin-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-Southern Clinton-
Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-
Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster-
119 PM EDT Tue May 28 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging winds 60 mph or greater
and large hail exceeding 1 inch in diameter are possible this
afternoon and evening. Tornadoes are possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging winds 60 mph or greater
and large hail exceeding 1 inch in diameter are possible again on
Wednesday afternoon and evening, and possibly again on Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ017-024-033-291730-
Clearfield-Cambria-Somerset-
119 PM EDT Tue May 28 2019

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging winds 60 mph or greater
and large hail exceeding 1 inch in diameter are possible this
afternoon and evening. Tornadoes are possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging winds 60 mph or greater
and large hail exceeding 1 inch in diameter are possible again on
Wednesday afternoon and evening, and possibly again on Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
458 PM EDT TUE MAY 28 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0457 PM     HAIL             SHAMOKIN DAM            40.85N  76.82W
05/28/2019  M1.00 INCH       SNYDER             PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1901338

TRAVIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
459 PM EDT TUE MAY 28 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0422 PM     HAIL             HEGINS                  40.65N  76.50W
05/28/2019  M1.75 INCH       SCHUYLKILL         PA   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1901339

RXR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
501 PM EDT TUE MAY 28 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0454 PM     HAIL             HUMMELS WHARF           40.83N  76.84W
05/28/2019  M1.50 INCH       SNYDER             PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1901340

COLBERT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
514 PM EDT TUE MAY 28 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0410 PM     HAIL             COLVER                  40.54N  78.79W
05/28/2019  M1.50 INCH       CAMBRIA            PA   SOCIAL MEDIA

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1901341

RXR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
514 PM EDT Tue May 28 2019

PAZ010-017-282145-
Clearfield PA-Elk PA-
514 PM EDT Tue May 28 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PARTS OF ELK AND CLEARFIELD
COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM EDT...

At 513 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near
Brockport, moving southeast at 50 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and Penny size hail are possible.

Locations impacted include...
DuBois, Clearfield, Sandy, Woodland, Curwensville, Penfield, Hyde,
Plymptonville, Rockton, Karthaus, Force, Jeffries, Lecontes Mills,
S.B. Elliot State Park, Brockport, Parker Dam State Park, Falls
Creek, Morrisdale, Weedville and West Decatur.

LAT...LON 4114 7880 4120 7877 4120 7871 4123 7871
      4123 7874 4126 7873 4129 7879 4131 7877
      4123 7821 4122 7809 4115 7804 4113 7806
      4112 7811 4107 7809 4082 7831 4108 7880
TIME...MOT...LOC 2113Z 297DEG 49KT 4119 7872

Jung

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
525 PM EDT TUE MAY 28 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0510 PM     HAIL             TREVORTON               40.78N  76.67W
05/28/2019  M1.50 INCH       NORTHUMBERLAND     PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1901342

COLBERT