Severe Thunderstorm Warning 272, NWS State College, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
352 PM EDT Wed Sep 11 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal system will approach the region this evening. Ahead of
it will be muggy conditions with a change of showers and
thunderstorms. The front will then stall along or just south of
the Maryland border. Another frontal system will weaken as it
moves into the area Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Warm and muggy conditions this afternoon with radar showing the
first signs of convection developing over western areas of the
region this afternoon. Will keep pops in the forecast through
the period. Later tonight convection currently over the Great
Lakes will approach the NW zones. Look for a muggy night with
temperatures well above average.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Frontal system will become stationary close to the MD border on
Thursday. With easterly flow look for a good bit of cloud cover
and cooler conditions then today. Will also keep some pops in
the forecast, especially SE zones where low level moisutre is
greatest.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Models agree in building the eastern ridge with 5900m H5 heights
moving into PA Thu night and Fri. Despite the warm bubble
pushing in aloft, I have Fri as the coolest day of the next
several with the big high to our NE keeping us in a cool ESE
flow with plenty of clouds around.

A new storm system will lift well to our west by the weekend,
with the trailing cold front weakening as it encounters high
heights over the eastern U.S. later Fri into Sat. The best
chances for showers/thunderstorms will be over the western CWA.
Right now it looks like the second half of Saturday will be
drier than the first.

Medium range guidance keeps us pretty close to the southern edge
of the westerlies which casts doubt on the potential for rain
through the extended. I chose a more optimistic precip forecast
given the expectations of rather high heights aloft, suggesting
the potential for rain will stay on the scattered disorganized
side, too early to be specific about.

A potentially interesting situation is hinted at next week with
the upper high parked over the SE US. A wave in the Bahamas is
brought under this ridge into the eastern Gulf of Mexico, with
the ECMWF/GFS/Canadian all remarkably close in bringing a
possible tropical cyclone toward the NE gulf states perhaps as
early as later Monday. By the middle of next week there are
hints that whatever moves ashore could be heading north up the
Appalachians toward the OH Valley or NERN US, or at least a
stream of deeper tropical moisture advecting up this way.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions outside any convection this afternoon. Periods
of MVFR to IFR in SHRA and TSRA at southern TAF sites are
possible this afternoon. CIGS will lower overnight into
Thursday.

.Outlook...

Thu...AM low cigs possible NW Mtns. Isold PM tsra impacts
possible southern Pa.

Fri-Sat...Low cigs possible, mainly in the morning. Isolated
aftn SHRA poss.

Sun...AM valley fog poss, otherwise no sig wx.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Ross
NEAR TERM...Ross
SHORT TERM...Ross/La Corte
LONG TERM...La Corte/RXR
AVIATION...Ross

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
502 AM EDT Wed Sep 11 2019

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066-120915-
Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield-
Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-
Juniata-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-
Sullivan-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-
Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-
Adams-York-Lancaster-
502 AM EDT Wed Sep 11 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

There is a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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