Severe Thunderstorm Warning 268, NWS State College, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
605 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
It will remain very warm and humid into early this coming week
and a meandering trough of low pressure will keep the mention of
mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms in the
forecast. Cooler and much less humid air will arrive for
Thursday through Saturday with dry conditions expected.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Scattered, mainly pulse-type convection continues to fire
across central Pa early this evening. Capes over 2000 j/kg per
21Z SPC mesoanalysis will continue to support localized severe
weather through around 01Z. However, weak deep layer shear
should limit the threat of organized, widespread severe weather.

Expect convection to disspate after sunset. However, a
weakening shortwave is progged to push into the region late
tonight, so keeping low POPs in the forecast through the night,
especially over the northwest counties.

It will be another muggy overnight with lows ranging from the
low 60s over the north to around 70F SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Scattered, diurnally-driven convection is expected again on Monday.

A hot and humid day is on tap with heat indices around 100 for
much central and SE PA. Scattered afternoon and evening showers
and thunderstorms may knock some temps down but it will feel
muggy. Moderate CAPEs in the 1000-2000J range could support a
few strong storms, but fairly weak deep layer wind shear
suggests little risk of organized severe weather.

Model soundings indicate max temps will be a few deg warmer than
today, with highs ranging from the low 80s along the NY border
to the lower 90s in the valleys of southern PA. The combination
of heat and humidity may warrant the issuance of a Heat Advisory
for a few hours Monday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Made some very small changes to this part of the package, given
not a lot of change on guidance and storms on the radar.

A trend toward cooler and drier weather is expected for the
later part of the week, as a cold front moves east of the area.

Perhaps a shower toward the later part of the weekend.

More detail below.

Guidance continues to show a fairly vigorous upper trough
crossing the northeast quadrant of the lower 48 this period.
Within the upper trough, there are still smaller scale detail
differences that will affect progression/speed of the leading
surface cold front and will take more time to be resolved. The
cold front will be a focus for convection as it pushes southeast
Wed-Thu. While predictability is too low and limited at this
range, severe storm risk upgrades are possible into the short
term.

Late-summer heat episode continues into midweek with max temperature
anomalies +5-10F above normal on Wednesday. At this time, expect
Thursday to be the transition day with a relative cooling trend and
push of drier air throttling temps back to near/slightly below avg.
Friday into the weekend. Lower humidity will spell pleasant days and
comfortably cool nights.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Brief restrictions will affect terminals in the path of the
showers and thunderstorms into the evening.

Abundant low level moisture, light winds and at least partial
clearing should favor fog formation again late tonight into
early Monday morning.

.Outlook...

Mon-Wed...Rounds of PM showers/thunderstorms. Late night and
early morning fog/low clouds.

Thu...Trending VFR northwest; chance of t-storms southeast.
FROPA Thursday night.

Fri...No Sig Wx.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record max temperatures for August 19:

Harrisburg 		97 in 1966
Williamsport 	94 in 1899
Altoona 		91 in 1983
Bradford 		86 in 1978
State College 	96 in 1899

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...La Corte
NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald
SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald/La Corte
LONG TERM...Martin/Steinbugl
AVIATION...La Corte
CLIMATE...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
520 AM EDT Sun Aug 18 2019

PAZ019-024>028-045-046-049>053-190930-
Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-
Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-
Northumberland-Columbia-
520 AM EDT Sun Aug 18 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered to numerous late day showers and thunderstorms will
occur today. A few of the storms will become strong to severe
thunderstorms with gusty winds, locally heavy rain and frequent
lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Heat indices around 100 degrees likely both Monday and Tuesday
afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ033>036-056>059-063>066-190930-
Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-
Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster-
520 AM EDT Sun Aug 18 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered late afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms
will occur today. A few of the storms will become strong to severe
thunderstorms with gusty winds, locally heavy rain and frequent
lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Heat indices around 100 degrees likely both Monday and Tuesday
afternoon.

Additional strong to locally severe thunderstorms, containing heavy
rain and gusty winds, will occur each afternoon Monday through
Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ004>006-010>012-017-018-037-041-042-190930-
Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield-
Northern Centre-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-
520 AM EDT Sun Aug 18 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered to numerous late afternoon and early evening showers and
thunderstorms will occur today. A few of the storms will become
strong to severe thunderstorms with gusty winds, locally heavy rain
and frequent lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Additional strong to locally severe thunderstorms, containing heavy
rain and gusty winds, will occur each afternoon Monday through
Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

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