Severe Thunderstorm Warning 243, NWS State College, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
619 PM EDT Thu Aug 15 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A trough of low pressure will keep the weather unsettled
for the next several days. Temperatures will remain near normal
and it will be rather humid. By late in the weekend into early
next week look for hot and humid conditions, especially across
the southeast portions of the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Storms starting to weaken.

Updated the HWO at mid aft.

Will continue to update this evening.

Earlier discussion below.

Radar shows numerous showers and thunderstorms breaking out
under the strong August sun. The near term CAMs continue to
advertise a noisy afternoon. RAP shows ML CAPE between
1500-2000J with moderate shear. SPC has issued a SWOMCD with a
40% of a watch. Isolated rotating storms will be possible as we
progress into the afternoon.

The highest threat will be for some gusty winds with the
strongest storms along with brief heavy downpours.

Convection will continue into the evening hours before
decreasing in coverage and intensity later. It will be a muggy
night with patchy fog if skies manage to clear at all. Lows will
be in the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
Weak upper troughing will once again tend to lead to mainly
diurnal showers and thunderstorms Friday. Models develop
moderate instability and shear so we could be looking at a
virtual repeat of today.

Highs will range from the upper 70s to mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Prevalent zonal west-southwest flow aloft will persist from
this weekend through the early part of next week before
significant pattern amplification unfolds over the CONUS. A
strong upper builds builds from the Four Corners region to the
south central Plains by mid week. Downstream upper troffing will
be prevalent over much of the GLAKS and eastern seaboard, with
perhaps a trend towards slightly less heat and humidity late
next week. It still looks quite warm however.

Initially, a very warm air mass should build north and east
into PA this weekend with heat indices by Sunday likely topping
90F over much of the southeast. Mainly diurnal convection
chances persist each day, although in this pattern most areas
will remain dry at any given time, and scattered
afternoon/evening variety is favored.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Several rounds of updated TAFS since 3 PM to adjust for the
showers and storms.

Wind gust to 30 mph and a shift to a northeast direction behind
the storms typical so far.

Earlier discussion below.

Most of the area as improved to VFR, and any impacts going into
the evening will be confined to those terminals that experience
a hit from the scattered thunderstorms that are breaking out.

Low clouds and fog are expected to bring more widespread
restrictions again tonight into early Friday morning, with
Friday afternoon seeing scattered showers and thunderstorms
developing once again.

.Outlook...

Sat-Tue...VFR. Isolated-scattered showers/thunderstorms
possible, mainly in the afternoon/early evening hours. Late
night and early morning fog/low clouds.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...La Corte
NEAR TERM...La Corte/Martin
SHORT TERM...La Corte
LONG TERM...Ross
AVIATION...DeVoir/Martin

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
328 PM EDT Thu Aug 15 2019

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066-161030-
Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield-
Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-
Juniata-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-
Sullivan-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-
Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-
Adams-York-Lancaster-
328 PM EDT Thu Aug 15 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible into
early this evening across the region. Some storms could contain
damaging winds and hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Slow moving showers and storms along an old frontal boundary could
result in isolated heavy downpours. Areas that receive repeated
storms could have localized runoff issues.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Martin

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
626 PM EDT THU AUG 15 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0607 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WEHNWOOD                40.54N  78.41W
08/15/2019                   BLAIR              PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES AND WIRES DOWN ON JUNIATA GAP RD NEAR PENN STATE
            ALTOONA.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1901628

COLBERT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
644 PM EDT Thu Aug 15 2019

PAZ005-006-152315-
McKean PA-Potter PA-
644 PM EDT Thu Aug 15 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PARTS OF MCKEAN AND POTTER
COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM EDT...

At 643 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm over
Port Allegany, moving east at 25 mph.

Wind gusts 40 to 50 mph and pea size hail are possible.

Locations impacted include...
Coudersport, Port Allegany, Smethport, Roulette, Shinglehouse,
Genesee, Rew, Coryville, Crosby, Cyclone, Eldred, Lewis Run, Sweden
Valley, Oswayo, Ceres and Bradford Airport.

LAT...LON 4200 7785 4168 7785 4177 7872 4190 7866
      4200 7831
TIME...MOT...LOC 2243Z 277DEG 33KT 4180 7832

Martin

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
645 PM EDT THU AUG 15 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0555 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 SW PINE GROVE MILLS   40.70N  77.93W
08/15/2019                   HUNTINGDON         PA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES AND WIRES DOWN.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1901629

COLBERT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
654 PM EDT THU AUG 15 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0601 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SE PINE GROVE MILLS   40.71N  77.83W
08/15/2019                   HUNTINGDON         PA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES AND WIRES DOWN NEAR WHIPPLE DAM STATE PARK.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1901630

COLBERT