Alert archive / Pennsylvania / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2019

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 199, NWS State College, PA

July 19, 2019Tioga County, Pennsylvania

NWS State College, PA issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 19, 2019, 5:42 PM EDT for Tioga County, Pennsylvania. It was in force for 63 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Jul 19, 2019, 5:42 PM EDT (21:42 UTC)
Expired
Jul 19, 2019, 6:45 PM EDT
In force
63 min
Issued by
NWS State College, PA
Area
Storm-based polygon
Hail
0.75 in
Wind
60.0 mph

County Tioga County, PA

The radar

The State College radar (KCCX), 113 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:44 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

IssuedProductOfficeLasted
Jul 19, 2:29 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPC7 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Buffalo Intl Airport, NY (KBUF), launched 12:00Z, 9.7 hours before the alert went out and 175 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Buffalo Intl Airport, NY at 12:00Z on 2019-07-19Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 997 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Buffalo Intl Airport, NY at 12:00Z on 2019-07-19The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 135 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
997 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-74 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
933 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
36 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
135 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
145 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
3.8

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS State College, PA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 19, 4:13 PM EDT, 1 hour 29 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 19, 4:13 PM EDT, 1 hour 29 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
413 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
----Dangerous heat and humidity expected today through Sunday---

We will be dealing with hazy, hot and very humid conditions
until early next week when some relief is in sight. Dangerous
heat will build Today into Saturday and continue into Sunday.
Heat indices will peak on Saturday afternoon, easily exceeding
100 over southern and especially southeastern areas.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Heat index still struggling over the west, but solidly in the
zone close to the current forecast for the east and central
counties. Big change was the recent upgrade to SLGT risk svr and
ERO over the N/NW, and subsequent issuance of a SVR watch box.
Will continue to monitor the storm moving down from the N, but
the pulse/sfc-driven stuff along the NY border right now should
be easily sub severe.

If you like cool satellite pics/loops, check out the vis images
an hour or so ago as a contrail/cirrus streak kills off the
first spots of tall convection over wrn NY/NW PA, and then cu
pops right back up after the shadow of cooling passes thru. This
illustrates just how tenuous the convection is right now (in
this pulse environment before any real forcing arrives).

Have not made any changes to the going mins or dewpoints
overnight. All is well on track after minor near term tweaks.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
Heat concerns last into Sunday. Saturday should be the hottest
day. But...

There is a real concern for the temps to get as high as curr
fcsts, and therefore, the heat indicies. There is the
possibility of the convective debris/blow-off coming from
upstream on Sat AM to keep the temps down. It is also really
tough to get those 77-79 dewpoints. But, we have hit those
values on Thurs and getting close today (Fri). Will continue all
flags as is with nowhere near enough support to drop/downgrade
any of the flags. PoPs again stay mainly to the north. Warm
temps aloft should limit deep convection and ice production.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
*Heat indexes in from 100 to 110 SE half Sunday afternoon.
*Excessive heat advisories and warnings through the eastern
 portion of central PA into Sunday.

The biggest change has been in the pattern for Sunday. The
front continues to slow and looks to not move through until
Sunday evening. The upper trough coupled with the low level
frontal boundary pushing into the surface heat dome will kick
off convection Sunday aft that looks to linger into Monday.
Highs will reach the mid to upper 90s in the SE, with upper 80s
to lower 90s in the NW where clouds will be thicker and
convection more prevalent. But abnormally high dewpoints will
keep the heat oppressive, with heat indexes reaching excessive
heat warning criteria again Sunday in the SE.

As the front drops down across the region Monday, a cool down
is expected. Along with it a break in the oppressive humidity as
the mean upper level trough is nearby. Monday could still be
muggy over the SE where scattered tstms will continue, but
overall trend will be that temperatures of 10-20F above normal
over the weekend will retreat back to near July normals during
the work week with a mainly dry week in store.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Keeping on with mentions of VCTS in BFD for this aftn/early
evening. Lake breeze and lift along the ridge SE of the lake is
already allowing some showers to form. The bigger concern is for
stronger forcing to arrive shortly from the north and make gusty
winds from the storms near BFD. IPT may see a storm later, but
not enough of a risk to include in the TAF.

While the high heat and humidity makes it easier to hit home
runs, it also means that takeoffs and landings will take more
distance/runway.

Another upstream cluster of storms may again try to move into
the nrn tier late tonight. Still skeptical on that. Will mention
some lower clouds over the Alleghenies late tonight.

.Outlook...

Sat-Sun...Mainly VFR with isolated to widely scattered PM
thunderstorms possible.

Mon...Still a chance of showers and storms as CFROPA occurs Mon
or Mon PM.

Tues...No sig wx.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for PAZ004>006-010>012-
017-018-024-033-037-041-042.
Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT Saturday for PAZ028-036-
046-049>053-056>058-063>065.
Heat Advisory from 8 PM Saturday to 8 PM EDT Sunday for PAZ028-
036-046-049>053-056>058-063>065.
Excessive Heat Warning from noon to 8 PM EDT Saturday for
PAZ019-025>027-034-035-045.
Heat Advisory until noon EDT Saturday for PAZ019-025>027-034-
035-045.
Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT Sunday for PAZ059-066.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Dangelo
NEAR TERM...Dangelo
SHORT TERM...Dangelo
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...Dangelo
Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 19, 2:35 PM EDT, 3 hours 7 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
235 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2019

PAZ012-017-018-024-041-042-201845-
Northern Clinton-Clearfield-Northern Centre-Cambria-
Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-
235 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2019

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

Strong to severe thunderstorms with gusty winds are possible into
the early evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ028-046-049>053-056>058-201845-
Juniata-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-Northumberland-
Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-
235 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2019

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY...
...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM SATURDAY TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Excessive Heat Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Excessive Heat Warning.
   Heat Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ019-025>027-045-201845-
Southern Centre-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Southern Clinton-
235 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2019

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT SATURDAY...
...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.
   Excessive Heat Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ059-201845-
Lebanon-
235 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2019

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Excessive Heat Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Excessive Heat Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ036-063>065-201845-
Franklin-Cumberland-Adams-York-
235 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2019

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY...
...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM SATURDAY TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Excessive Heat Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Excessive Heat Warning.
   Heat Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ066-201845-
Lancaster-
235 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2019

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Excessive Heat Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Excessive Heat Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ033-201845-
Somerset-
235 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2019

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ034-035-201845-
Bedford-Fulton-
235 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2019

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT SATURDAY...
...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.
   Excessive Heat Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ004>006-010-011-037-201845-
Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Tioga-
235 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2019

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 523 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jul 19, 4:20 PM EDT, 1 hour 22 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
420 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2019

PAZ004-005-192115-
McKean PA-Warren PA-
420 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2019

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF WARREN AND MCKEAN
COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM EDT...

At 418 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from northern Warren county to just north of
McKean County. Movement was east at 20 mph.

Wind gusts of up to 55 mph and pea size hail are possible.

Locations impacted include...
Warren, Bradford, Columbus, Youngsville, Russell, Shinglehouse,
Spring Creek, Rew, Scandia, Lottsville, Coryville, Cyclone,
Marshburg, Warren South, Garland, Kinzua Dam, Eldred, Lewis Run,
Sugar Grove and Starbrick.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4200 7820 4189 7821 4185 7832 4180 7885
      4179 7962 4199 7961
TIME...MOT...LOC 2018Z 291DEG 18KT 4211 7857 4201 7888 4197 7940 4195
7994

Colbert/GD
Local storm report, Jul 19, 5:25 PM EDT, 17 minutes before
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Special weather statement, Jul 19, 5:30 PM EDT, 12 minutes before
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Local storm report, Jul 19, 5:31 PM EDT, 11 minutes before
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The office that day

Everything else NWS State College, PA issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 19, 4:20 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementCTPWarren55 min
Jul 19, 5:10 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPMcKean, Warren65 min
Jul 19, 5:30 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementCTPTioga45 min
Jul 19, 5:37 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryCTPWarren113 min
Jul 19, 5:47 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPElk73 min
Jul 19, 6:25 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementCTPPotter35 min
Jul 19, 6:48 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPCameron, Clearfield, Clinton, Elk57 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Pennsylvania, 2019Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2019

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.