Severe Thunderstorm Warning 162, NWS State College, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1048 AM EDT Sat Jun 29 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will settle south through the forecast area today.
Scattered strong thunderstorms will accompany the passage of
the cold front this afternoon into this evening. A brief period
of cooler temperatures and comfortable humidity will follow
Sunday into Monday before another fast moving cold front moves
our way.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
Stray TSRA over the SW fizzled, but may flare up as they move
into the SCent mtns/Lower Susq where it is heating up nicely and
CAPE already near 1500. Still a little cap with few cu out there
yet. But, the forcing diving into the NW is helping TSRA to
continue into the NW mtns, although the appear to be weakening
very slightly at this moment. Still getting here at the right
time to tap into CAPE since it appears to be overcoming whatever
capping is currently in place where it is currently moving
thru. Holding the line with all severe wording and timing all
similar, with most action 2-8PM, but some storms could linger
in the srn tier thru 10-11PM. Already 83F in the SE and it is
only 10AM. Maxes still on track.

Prev...
Pooling PW extending along an elongated 5h shear axis and sfc
cold front pushing southeastward towards NW PA this morning.
The west-east oriented cold front will sag southward through
the lower Lakes this morning and across central PA later today
through this evening. Air mass becomes moderately unstable over
much of central and eastern PA, and SPC has slightly expanded
SLGT risk to cover more of my southwest and central counties
while MRGL covers the rest. Deep layer shear will be weak and
mean layer winds will be westerly, tending to downslope and dry.
Some mid level warming to be overcome late morning through early
afternoon, but with CAPEs forecast between 1500-2000J, we should
be able to generate some decent cold pools and locally strong
storms. Wind gusts the main severe threat.

Highs will range from around 80 over the north, to the lower 90s
over the Lower Susq. Right now the Heat Indices are forecast in
the mid 90s, but if the dewpoints end up underestimated, we
will see Heat Advisory criteria for a few hours over the SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Showers and storms should fade over the southern tier of CWA
tonight as the frontal boundary pushes south of the Mason Dixon
line by Sunday morning. Mins tonight range from upper 50s north
to near 70 south. Much more comfortable/drier air mass arrives
for Sunday with maxes some 4-6F cooler as well.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Dry and cooler conds expected Sunday night associated with area
of below normal PW. Heat and humidity quickly return early next
week and build through the 4th of July. Expect above average
temperatures next week with increasingly humid conditions.
Forecast max heat index values should peak in the mid-upper 90s
around Independence Day.

Low confidence in the precip pattern which will be dominated by
episodic convection tied to individual shortwaves - which offer
very limited predictability at this range.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Showers and thunderstorms VCTY KJST have dissipated but that
area could flare up again as it gets closer to KMDT/KLNS early
this aftn. A cluster of storms is almost to KBFD, and have timed
these out initially, but also left mention (VCTS) in for most
of the aftn there. Front drops through right around or slightly
after peak heating and numerous TSRA expected through all aftn.
The srn terminals could see them last thru 01-02Z. After the
rain, possible IFR cigs and vsbys form overnight, especially at
IPT and JST. But some drying time for BFD before sunset may
preclude fog there except for a brief time.

Just the tiniest chc of a SHRA on Sunday in the heating of the
aftn, mainly NE of KIPT and near KJST. Otherwise, expect VFR.

.Outlook...

Mon...No Sig Wx.

Tue-Wed...Scattered PM thunderstorms possible.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DeVoir
NEAR TERM...Dangelo/DeVoir
SHORT TERM...DeVoir
LONG TERM...Steinbugl
AVIATION...Dangelo/Ceru

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
1212 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2019

PAZ006-011-012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066-301615-
Potter-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield-Northern Centre-
Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Somerset-
Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-
Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-
Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-
Adams-York-Lancaster-
1212 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2019

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 461 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ004-005-010-301615-
Warren-McKean-Elk-
1212 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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