Severe Thunderstorm Warning 152, NWS State College, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
233 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2019

.SYNOPSIS...

A weak cold front will push into northern Pennsylvania late
this evening. A new area of high pressure building southeast
from the Great Lakes will push a warmer and more humid airmass
toward the region for Thursday.

The warm and humid air will remain in place into the weekend
before a cold front brings some relief for early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

The first echoes of the day are starting to pop from about
Wellsboro to Clearfield. They seem to be within an axis of
moderate instability with not insignificant deep layer shear.
The showers are not rotating as yet, but the RAP does analyze
some helicity.

The HRRR unsurprisingly is late to initiate convection, but
during the ensuing hours it does spark off some storms and
drops them slowly SE while weakening. This is suspect first of
all because the latest run holds of convective initiation until
between 4-5 PM. Getting a couple of hour head start could lead
to a wider area seeing the chance of rain.

Mixed layer CAPE in the RAP is in excess of 1500J along I-80.
The instability will combine with moderate shear to make an
isolated strong/gusty thunderstorm possible over my NRN zones.
This is where SPC has a Marginal Risk for SVR painted for today.

-Rap shows mid lapse rates in excess of 6C/km in place
-EHI's exceed 1 over a surprisingly big portion of NRN PA.

Outside of the storms where a few tenths of an inch of rain
could fall in a short time span, rainfall will be quite sparse.

Activity should wane quickly with the setting sun, leading to a
fair and mild overnight. Lows from the mid 50s to mid 60s will
be several deg warmer than average.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...

Most of the CWA will remain dry and quite warm to hot with highs
generally in the 80s, and some SERN locations topping 90 on
Thursday. Humidity will also start to rebound which could lead
to a terrain aided diurnal shower/storm during the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Thursday through much of Friday should be mainly dry as another
weak bubble of high pressure breaks away from the main llvl
ridge, and drifts across southern NY. This high will temporarily
push/keep the boundary over southern PA for Thursday into early
Friday. Another relatively weak cfropa will approach from the
Lower Glakes and Ohio Valley Friday. This front and a moderately
strong westerly LLJ over NW PA should be sufficient to spark
another round of strong to potentially severe thunderstorms
Friday afternoon/evening. SPC has practically the same portion
of the state painted in a Marginal Risk for severe TSRA on Day 3
(Friday through 12Z Saturday.

A stronger cold front and upper lvl trough will move across the
region on Sunday, ushering in colder and drier air. The upper
lvl trough looks to lag the sfc cold front some. This would
limit the chance of stronger storms with the cold front.

Made some minor changes to this part of the fcst package.
Enjoy the early summer weather.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

Widespread VFR is in place.

Localized restrictions are possible in scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms this afternoon mainly north of I-80
ahead of a weak cool front. A few of the storms could produce
localized strong wind gusts and small hail.

VFR conditions, outside of some patchy early morning valley fog,
will then continue Friday.

.Outlook...

Fri-Sun...Scattered PM thunderstorms possible NW.

Mon...No Sig Wx.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...La Corte
NEAR TERM...La Corte
SHORT TERM...La Corte
LONG TERM...Lambert
AVIATION...La Corte

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
446 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2019

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>027-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
270900-
Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield-
Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-
Tioga-Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-
Union-Snyder-Montour-Northumberland-Columbia-
446 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with gusty winds and small
hail are possible this afternoon and early this evening across
portions of Central and Northern Pennsylvania.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with gusty winds and hail
are possible Friday afternoon and evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ028-033>036-056>059-063>066-270900-
Juniata-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-
Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster-
446 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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