Severe Thunderstorm Warning 145, NWS State College, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
359 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong frontal system will bring drier and much cooler weather
to the region by Sunday night. Before then, look for a chance of
showers and thunderstorms, mainly over northern Pennsylvania
this evening before spreading south with the cold front on
Sunday. The first half of the week will be dry and cool. Some of
the colder locations across northern areas will have morning
lows close to freezing Monday and Tuesday. The second half of
the week will warm up with the chance for showers or
thunderstorms returning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Radar shows a few showers and thunderstorms now developing just
north of NY/PA border. Some of these storms will meander into
PA. More organized areas of convection upstream to the NW. These
fast moving storms will approach NW zones later this afternoon
and evening. Storms will decrease late evening with a quiet
overnight period, before cold front approaches NW zones a bit
before sunrise, bringing an increase in showers.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Will be tracking a strong cold front tomorrow. Just ahead of
the front look for showers and thunderstorms to develop and
spread SE. SPC has eastern half of CWA in slight risk for severe
storms with afternoon heating and shear associated with frontal
boundary. Models are moving this front along quickly and it
could clear the CWA by late in the day.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

*A shot of unseasonably cold and less humid air Monday and
 Tuesday.
*Frost possible across north central PA early Tuesday morning.
*Unsettled pattern returns Wed-Fri following welcomed 2-day
 stretch of mainly dry weather.

The mid to long range period begins with the large upper level
low making its way through the Great lakes and southern Canada.
The operation models are in fair agreement on the placement of
this low 00Z Monday. However the solutions begin to quickly
diverge early this upcoming week. The timing of the trough seems
to be the variance with the EC moving it slower and shallower.
The biggest affect from this low will be the advection of cold
air into the region Monday. 850mb temps will range from -2C in
the Northwest to 2C in the southeast. Couple this with a dry air
mass and little clouds and there will be a good chance for
frost through the northwest with the best chance early Tuesday
morning. Monday will be similar in temperature but the tight
gradient from the trough will remain. That should allow for
persistent northwesterly winds. So have kept frost out of the wx
grids on Monday for now. So expect temperatures across the
region to be 10 degrees below normal Monday and Tuesday.

The positive of the dry cold air is that will be rain free
Monday through Tuesday. That reprieve from precipitation will
be short lived as a short wave trough will ripple through the
area Wednesday. Temperatures rebound, along with increase in
dewpoints. That trough will bring a chance of showers Wednesday.
That trough will be the harbinger of what the latter half of
the week will bring as showers and thunderstorms will be
possible through the latter half of the week and possibly into
the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Mainly VFR except for patchy shower and thunderstorm activity
closest to NY border. Watch for more organized convection
approaching NW area VCNTY KBFD after 20Z continuing into the
evening. More convection on Sunday as a strong frontal system
moves w to e across the state during the day.

.Outlook...

Sun...Brief restrictions probable in showers/t-storms.

Mon-Tue...No sig wx.

Wed...Chance of showers/t-storms.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Ross
NEAR TERM...Ross
SHORT TERM...Ross/Dangelo
LONG TERM...Ceru/Steinbugl
AVIATION...Ross

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
604 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2019

PAZ004>006-010>012-037-041-042-021015-
Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Tioga-
Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-
604 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Strong to severe thunderstorms with gusty winds and small hail
are possible this afternoon and evening. Some of the storms may make
heavy rain which could lead to minor flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Frost is possible Tuesday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ017>019-024-025-033-021015-
Clearfield-Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Somerset-
604 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Strong to severe thunderstorms with gusty winds and small hail
are possible late this afternoon and evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Strong to severe thunderstorms with gusty winds and small hail
are possible Sunday afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ045-046-049>053-021015-
Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-
Northumberland-Columbia-
604 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Strong to severe thunderstorms with gusty winds and small hail
are possible this afternoon and evening. Some of the storms may make
heavy rain which could lead to minor flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Strong to severe thunderstorms with gusty winds and small hail
are possible Sunday afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ026>028-034-035-021015-
Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Bedford-Fulton-
604 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Strong to severe thunderstorms with gusty winds and small hail
are possible Sunday afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ036-056>059-063>066-021015-
Franklin-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-
Lancaster-
604 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Severe thunderstorms with damaging winds 60 mph or greater and
large hail exceeding 1 inch in diameter are possible Sunday
afternoon
and evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
355 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2019

PAZ004-005-012045-
McKean PA-Warren PA-
355 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2019

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

At 354 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from near Allegany State Park to 7 miles south of Guys
Mills. Movement was west at 25 mph.

winds in excess of 30 mph and Half inch hail are possible.

Locations impacted include...
Warren, Bradford, Allegany State Park, Sheffield, Youngsville,
Wetmore, Russell, Rew, Ludlow, Marshburg, Scandia, Cyclone, Grand
Valley, Westline, Warren South, Garland, Kinzua Dam, Chapman State
Park, Eldred and Tidioute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4176 7960 4200 7902 4200 7820 4162 7899
      4163 7961
TIME...MOT...LOC 1954Z 081DEG 7KT 4206 7871 4153 8003

Martin