River Flood Warning 14, NWS State College, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
905 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A potent cold front will cross the area this evening, bringing
locally heavy showers and thunderstorms, along with strong wind
gusts. Much colder weather will follow for the weekend, along
with generally dry conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
9 pm update... Although the squall line's progress has slowed
across eastern PA the last couple of hours, it does still have
some eastward push, and we expect it to finally clear the Lower
and Middle Susquehanna Valleys by 10-11 pm. Unfortunately,
rainfall rates have been quite excessive (1.5-2.5"/hour) in this
area, and given numerous flooding reports in portions of Adams,
York, Dauphin, and Lebanon counties, flash flood warnings are
now in effect. We'll also watch Lancaster county closely late
this evening. As mentioned earlier, we do expect the rains to
finally taper down prior to midnight.

Given lingering low-level shear and some instability, locally
gusty winds are still a consideration prior to midnight as well.

Later tonight, post-frontal passage, gusty winds and colder
temperatures will be the main story. Scattered rain and snow
showers are still expected in the northern mountains and
Allegheny ridges, lasting into Friday morning.

Previous discussion... 6 pm update... Things progressing about
on schedule early this evening, as squall line with embedded
meso-vortices continues to push through central PA. Best threat
of damaging winds and isolated tornadoes will be south of I-80
and east of I-99 through 10 pm. Farther north, strong winds will
be more isolated, with heavy downpours the more prominent
threat.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Strong, gusty winds on the backside of the departing storm will
continue into Friday morning. The gusty winds will decrease
through Friday afternoon as the tight pressure gradient quickly
unwinds with an area of high pressure spreading across the
northern Appalachians.

The weather pattern will turn noticeably colder through the
weekend with temperatures running a solid 5-10 degrees below
average for early November. A reinforcing shot of colder air
accompanying an upper level trough will bring a brief period of
lake effect snow showers to the far northwest zones Saturday
night into Sunday. Not expecting more than a slushy coating to
an inch accumulation in the favored snowbelts. An increasingly
unfavorable trajectory will spell an end to the lake effect
activity by Sunday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Broad cyclonic flow aloft associated with a mean upper trough
over southeast Canada will result in a chilly stretch of weather
through next week with reinforcing bouts of cold air maintaining
below normal temperatures. Areas downwind of the Great Lakes
appear most favorable for precipitation which may be rain or
snow (mix) depending on time of day vs. night.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
00z update... Restrictions (briefly as low as IFR/fuel
alternate) will persist through 03-05z ahead of the cold front
in showers and embedded thunderstorms. KMDT/KLNS have the best
chance at significant convective wind gusts.

Once the front goes by, post-frontal restrictions in rain/snow
showers are likely at KBFD and KJST, with conditions improving
to VFR elsewhere.

Strong W gusts of 25-35 kt should persist through late Friday
morning, before starting to subside.

.Outlook...

Sat...Mostly VFR.

Sun...Possible restrictions at KBFD and KJST in lower clouds, as
well as rain and snow showers.

Mon and Tue...Mainly VFR.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A band of heavy rain will accompany a strong cold front across
central PA this evening. A swath of 1-2 inches are forecast with
locally higher amounts. Flood risk is mainly confined to urban
and poor drainage areas especially where leaves block drains.
Sharp rises are also possible on small streams which are most
vulnerable to minor flooding issues.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 10 AM EDT Friday for PAZ004>006-010>012-
017-018-024-025-033-034-037.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Jurewicz
NEAR TERM...Jurewicz
SHORT TERM...Steinbugl
LONG TERM...Gartner/Steinbugl
AVIATION...Jurewicz
HYDROLOGY...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
1110 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

PAZ035-036-056>059-063>066-020315-
Fulton-Franklin-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-
York-Lancaster-
1110 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033-034-037-041-042-045-046-
049>053-020315-
Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield-
Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-
Juniata-Somerset-Bedford-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-
Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-
Northumberland-Columbia-
1110 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1031 PM EDT THU OCT 31 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0930 PM     FLOOD            SONESTOWN               41.35N  76.55W
10/31/2019                   SULLIVAN           PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MUNCY CREEK AT SONESTOWN ABOVE ITS BANKS. FLOODING IN
            DAVIDSON TWP.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1901741

COLBERT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1055 PM EDT THU OCT 31 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 PM     FLASH FLOOD      NEWCHESTER              39.90N  77.09W
10/31/2019                   ADAMS              PA   PEMA

            WATER RESCUES AT BREW HILL RD IN READING TWP, OLD
            HARRISBURG RD IN STRABANE TWP, AND PRESIDENTIAL CIRCLE
            IN STRABANE TWP.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1901742

COLBERT

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