Small Craft Advisory 21, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
634 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2019

.DISCUSSION...Updated forecast for the near shore marine to
include mention of slight chance of thunderstorms this morning.
See Aviation section for 12Z TAFs.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions are expected to continue through the
period. Mid level clouds will continue to increase through the day.
Reinforcing high pressure has arrived early this morning with
gusty north-northeast winds over the coastal plains. The winds
will gradually subside by the afternoon. Isolated showers could
affect the coastal areas this morning. Better chance for showers
will be possible during the evening and nighttime hours over the
Coastal Bend as an upper level disturbance moves across. These
showers could provide brief MVFR vsbys this evening and overnight.
Ceilings are expected to remain above 3 kft.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 430 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2019/

SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday)...

Surface high pressure continues to build south toward the region
this morning with windy conditions already occurring along the
coast. Latest MSAS analysis shows the secondary surge of colder
air moving south through central Texas and expect this air mass
will be in the area before daybreak.

Weak impulse in the southwest flow aloft is interacting with
elevated moisture to provide isolated showers along the coast and
scattered showers over the Gulf waters early this morning and will
continue for today. Isolated thunderstorms are expected to be
offshore where mid level lapse rates are steeper. Another short
wave trough will move into the region tonight, with MOS guidance
and HRRR/Texas Tech WRF showing a bit better coverage of showers
for the coastal plains into the waters. Adequate moisture and weak
impulses in the southwest flow aloft will keep a chance of rain
in the forecast for Saturday for the coastal plains.

Temperatures will be quite cool over the next couple of days
as high pressure moves into the region and cloud cover remains in
place. Highs will be 60-65 today and 55-60 on Saturday.

Tide levels are running around 1.25 feet above expected early this
morning. Wave watch models shows swells of 6 to 8 feet moving
toward the coast today. ETSS and P-ETSS are showing the tide
levels at Bob Hall Pier reaching 1.8 feet this afternoon around
the time of high tide. But ETSS/P-ETSS are not showing the anomaly
as high as it is currently. So will go on the safe side and issue
a Coastal Flood Advisory for this afternoon for the beaches south
of Port Aransas with minor tidal overflow expected here.

Wave watch model shows higher swells impacting the Middle Texas
coast. Even though the winds are alongshore with north-northeast
winds, swells with high periods will provide a moderate risk of
rip currents for Gulf facing beaches today through Saturday.

LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Friday)...

A reinforcing surge of high pressure will help to keep temps cool on
Sunday with much of the region struggling to reach the mid 60s. Lows
will fall into the mid 40s to mid 50s Sunday and Monday night. Winds
will remain out of the north-northeast to kick off the work week. An
upper level disturbance will help to keep us cloudy throughout the
weekend with best chance for precip along the coast and over the
waters. Another upper level disturbance will slide just south of the
region early next week. Could see some showers with this feature as
PWATs will be around 1.3" across the Southern Coastal Bend and over
the Gulf waters.

We begin to dry out mid week as a mid level ridge builds in
overhead. As onshore flow returns, moisture will begin to pool along
the Rio Grande. Model soundings hint at PWATs reaching ~1.5" towards
the end of the work week. The forecast then becomes a bit tricky. An
upper level low will form across the southwest U.S. late Thursday
into early Friday. Models vary right now on location and timing on
this feature. The GFS is the fastest right now with the low lifting
to the NE out of Texas Friday evening. The Euro lags by a good bit.
An associated cold front will swing across the state towards the end
of the period. Showers and thunderstorms will be likely as low level
moisture pools (PWATS ~1.25") and instability increases (MLCAPE
~1500 J/kg) ahead of the boundary.

After a cooler start to the week, temps will rebound into the mid
70s by Thursday as onshore flow strengthens and skies clear.

MARINE...

Strong offshore flow will continue over the Gulf waters today as
high pressure builds into the area. Wind gusts will be near gale
over the offshore waters. Winds are expected to subside for the
bays by this afternoon and for the near shore waters by this
evening. Extended the SCA for the offshore waters through tonight
as elevated seas will be slow to subside and a strong north to
northeast flow will likely continue over this region into
Saturday. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be
possible today through Saturday as upper level impulses in the
southwest flow aloft move across the waters.

A series of upper level disturbances will maintain rain chances over
the waters early next week. Weak to moderate northeast flow will
continue through mid week before winds gradually veer to the east.
Onshore flow will strengthen ahead of an approaching low pressure
system late next week leading to likely SCA conditions. Although the
threat does not look as high as over the next couple of days, we
could see another round of minor coastal flooding Saturday night
(ESTOFS/P-ETSS output indicates water levels nearing 2ft).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    60  47  56  48  62  /  20  40  30  30  30
Victoria          59  45  55  45  63  /  10  20  20  20  20
Laredo            63  48  57  46  62  /  10  10  10  20  10
Alice             61  46  56  46  61  /  10  30  30  30  20
Rockport          61  47  56  50  63  /  20  40  30  30  30
Cotulla           62  46  56  43  63  /   0  10  10  20  10
Kingsville        60  47  56  48  62  /  20  30  30  30  20
Navy Corpus       61  49  57  53  63  /  20  40  30  30  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory from noon today to 6 PM CDT this evening
     For the following zones: Kleberg Islands...Nueces Islands.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Saturday For the following
     zones: Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas from 20 to 60
     NM...Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel
     from 20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon For the
     following zones: Bays and Waterways from Baffin Bay to Port
     Aransas...Bays and Waterways from Port Aransas to Port
     O'Connor.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening For the
     following zones: Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port
     Aransas out 20 NM...Coastal waters from Port Aransas to
     Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM.

&&

TMT/89...AVIATION

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
505 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2019

TXZ229>234-239>247-342>347-442-443-447-161100-
La Salle-McMullen-Live Oak-Bee-Goliad-Victoria-Webb-Duval-
Jim Wells-Inland Kleberg-Inland Nueces-Inland San Patricio-
Coastal Aransas-Inland Refugio-Inland Calhoun-Coastal Kleberg-
Coastal Nueces-Coastal San Patricio-Aransas Islands-
Coastal Refugio-Coastal Calhoun-Kleberg Islands-Nueces Islands-
Calhoun Islands-
505 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect this afternoon for the
island beaches from Port Aransas south to Baffin Bay.

There is a moderate risk of rip currents for Gulf facing beaches
along the Middle Texas coast today and tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

There will be a moderate risk of rip currents for Gulf facing
beaches of the Middle Texas coast Saturday.

No other hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-161100-
Bays and Waterways from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas-
Bays and Waterways from Port Aransas to Port O'Connor-
Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel out
20 NM-Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to
60 NM-
505 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for the Middle Texas
Coastal Waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the offshore waters
today through tonight. The Advisory is in effect for the bays
until 1 PM today and for the near shore waters until 7 PM today.

Isolated thunderstorms will be possible over the Gulf waters
today and tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Small Craft Advisory conditions are likely again Saturday over the
offshore waters. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible over the
offshore waters on Saturday.

Small Craft Advisory conditions are likely Tuesday morning as
onshore flow strengthens.

TMT/TC