Severe Thunderstorm Warning 2, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
354 AM CDT Sun Apr 7 2019

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday)...

The MCS we have been advertising over the last couple days is
currently taking shape along the Rio Grande. As of writing, the nose
of the system is just now entering Eagle Pass with additional activity
developing to the south. The MCS will push east this morning as the
upper level trough lifts across the region. The line will move into
a very unstable environment, characterized by MUCAPE ranging from
2500-3000 J/kg, DCAPE around 1000 J/kg, and ~40-50 kts 0-6 km
Bulk Shear. Our main threats this morning will be damaging winds
and large hail. However, our tornado threat cannot be ruled out as
select model soundings indicated helicity values near 200 m2/s2,
especially closer to the coast. As a result, a Severe Thunderstorm
Watch is currently in effect until 9 AM CDT for all of South
Texas as well as the bays and nearshore waters.

Heavy rainfall will also be possible this morning. We are
generally expecting 1-2" of rain with locally higher amounts possible.
The threat for the heaviest rainfall remains to our north today.
Our soils should be able to handle any heavy rainfall amounts as
our 6hr Flash Flood Guidance is about 4-5". As the line of strong
to severe thunderstorms advances east, we could see some localized
flooding but widespread flooding is not expected at this time. It
is worth noting that WPC has included the Victoria Crossroads in
a slight risk in the Excessive Rainfall Outlook with the Northern
Coastal Bend and Coastal Plains in a marginal threat.

The MCS will be nearing the coast by mid morning and should be clear
of the Victoria Crossroads by mid afternoon. As the boundary moves
through, any remaining patchy fog will clear out. A few lingering
showers are possible this afternoon but the bulk of the activity
will be out of the region. Drier air will filter into South Texas
this evening in the wake of this morning's cold front. As this
drier air settles in tonight, there may be enough low level
moisture in place, mainly across our eastern areas to lead to
patchy fog before sunrise tomorrow morning. Monday will set up to
be a pretty nice day as the mid level ridge builds in with highs
in the mid 80s to low 90s under mostly sunny skies.

&&

.LONG TERM (Monday night through Saturday)...

Extended begins with South Texas under an upper ridge, with
subsidence, sunshine, and warming temperatures. Return flow begins
Tuesday evening and increases on Wednesday as our next system begins
to move out into the Plains. That disturbance will push a weak front
through on Thursday. That front will likely go through dry, but will
knock several degrees off high temperatures. Increasing moisture and
weak upper support into the weekend may be enough for isolated
showers and a thunderstorm or two.

&&

.MARINE...

Patchy sea fog has been lingering along the coast early this
morning. Visibilities may briefly fall below 1 nautical mile at
times. Conditions will improve as a cold front pushes offshore by
mid morning. Showers and thunderstorms, some potentially severe,
will be possible by mid morning. Activity will clear out through
the afternoon hours. A weak offshore will set up in the wake of
the front. Weak flow on Tuesday will turn onshore late, and
increase on Wednesday. A weak disturbance will move through the
waters on Thursday, turning winds mainly easterly. Moisture will
begin to build the rest of the week, with rain chances for Friday
and Saturday with some weak upper support setting up.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    82  62  87  62  89  /  90  10  10   0   0
Victoria          77  60  85  59  88  / 100  20  10   0   0
Laredo            85  63  91  63  94  /  60  10   0   0   0
Alice             81  61  88  61  91  /  80  10  10   0   0
Rockport          78  64  83  63  80  / 100  10  10   0   0
Cotulla           82  59  88  60  92  /  70  10   0   0   0
Kingsville        82  61  88  61  91  /  90  10  10   0   0
Navy Corpus       80  65  84  65  80  /  90  10  10   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

TC/95...SHORT TERM
JV/71...LONG TERM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
407 AM CDT Sun Apr 7 2019

TXZ229>234-239>247-342>347-442-443-447-080915-
La Salle-McMullen-Live Oak-Bee-Goliad-Victoria-Webb-Duval-
Jim Wells-Inland Kleberg-Inland Nueces-Inland San Patricio-
Coastal Aransas-Inland Refugio-Inland Calhoun-Coastal Kleberg-
Coastal Nueces-Coastal San Patricio-Aransas Islands-
Coastal Refugio-Coastal Calhoun-Kleberg Islands-Nueces Islands-
Calhoun Islands-
407 AM CDT Sun Apr 7 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for all of South Texas
until 9 AM this morning.

Scattered to widespread thunderstorms are possible throughout the
day. Some of these storms could produce damaging winds, large
hail and frequent lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to relay reports of severe
weather and flooding. Use hashtags #ccspotter and #txwx

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-080915-
Bays and Waterways from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas-
Bays and Waterways from Port Aransas to Port O'Connor-
Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel out
20 NM-Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to
60 NM-
407 AM CDT Sun Apr 7 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for the Middle Texas
Coastal Waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for the bays and
nearshore waters until 9 AM this morning.

Patchy sea fog will linger along the coast through mid morning.
Visibilities may briefly drop below 1 nautical mile at times.

Scattered to widespread thunderstorms are possible throughout the
day. Some of these storms could produce damaging winds, large
hail and frequent lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

TC

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
430 AM CDT Sun Apr 7 2019

TXZ229-239-071000-
Webb-La Salle-
430 AM CDT Sun Apr 7 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL WEBB AND
SOUTHWESTERN LA SALLE COUNTIES...

At 429 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Callaghan, or
13 miles southwest of Encinal, moving northeast at 30 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Encinal, Callaghan, Las Tiendas and Botines.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 2777 9948 2789 9963 2821 9938 2803 9915
TIME...MOT...LOC 0929Z 221DEG 26KT 2789 9950

TMT