River Flood Warning 3, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
634 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2019

.DISCUSSION...See Aviation section for 00Z TAFs.

&&

.AVIATION...Strong to severe thunderstorms have become linear
along the advancing frontal boundary that is along a HBV-BEA line.
Storms appear to be on pace to move through the coastal plains
by 03Z. Storms will be capable of producing gusty winds, heavy
rain leading to lowered vsbys/IFR, and possibly some hail. Post
frontal cloud cover will provide MVFR ceilings into the early
overnight period. For the Brush Country behind the front this
evening, MVFR ceilings could linger for a couple of hours in the
LRD area before clearing occurs. Elevated convection over Mexico
has shown diminishing trends but could affect LRD until 02Z.
Conditions will improve to VFR for the area by 09-10Z. Clear skies
are expected for the area Thursday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 342 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2019/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night)...

Significant cloud cover through much of the day and morning
convection to the north continues to complicate the convective
situation for South Texas tonight. Temperatures from Cotulla and
Faith Ranch north have fallen into the 60s with an outflow
boundary pushing south toward Laredo. Another outflow boundary
exists north of Eagle Pass. Many of the more recent mesoscale
models have minimal activity across the NW portion of the area
with the front pushing in around 00Z, but when the front reaches
the more unstable air toward the center of the CWA would develop a
line of convection. Have lowered PoPs in response to this west,
but will keep chance mention there. Assuming convection can fire
this evening at least by the time it moves into the central part
of the area, we do have plenty of ingredients in place for strong
to severe storms. 19Z sounding indicated steep mid level lapse
rates, fairly high 0-6km shear (models prog even better west),
nearly 2k CAPE and little to no CIN. But, will first have to get
past the rain/cloud cooled air northwest. Timing wise...thinking
west of a line from Beeville to Alice will see most of the
activity before 9PM, then the Coastal Bend and Victoria Crossroads
between 9PM and midnight...maybe a bit later right along the
coast. Primary threat remains strong winds and hail, though with
0-6km shear 60kt or above, a tornado or two can not be ruled out,
especially if we can get any discrete cells at the onset.

Once the front moves through and convection end, will hold onto
clouds through the night, but should clear pretty rapidly during
the morning Thursday. The rest of the short term forecast period
will be quiet and dry. Despite the cold front high temperatures
tomorrow will be similar or warmer Thursday than today with highs
from the lower to mid 80s east to the lower 90s west. Dpts should
decrease into the 50s west and lower 60s east to make it feel a
bit drier. Mainly clear skies are anticipated with a light to
moderate northwesterly wind through tomorrow, with winds becoming
light and variable tomorrow night.

LONG TERM (Friday through Tuesday night)...

The end of the week and early next week will be dominated by upper-
level high pressure.  At the surface, a ridge will be nearly
overhead Friday then push east Friday night into Saturday, allowing
return flow to establish over South Texas.  Still, deeper moisture
will not arrive into the region from the south until the end of the
forecast period, so the next rain chances do not appear until
Tuesday (and even then are quite low).  Dewpoint temperatures will
be fairly low through Saturday (mid 50s-low 60s), before gradually
increasing to near 70F early next week.  Temperatures will be above
normal, with maxima ranging from low/mid 80s over Virginia
Crossroads and immediate coast to low/mid 90s in the Rio Grande
Valley.  Low temperatures will primarily be in the 60s.

MARINE...

Onshore flow this afternoon will become offshore tonight as a cold
front moves through the area. Showers and thunderstorms are likely
as the front moves through, mainly after midnight. SCEC conditions
may occur Thursday for a time in open waters.  Light northeast
wind is forecast Friday as high pressure resides nearly overhead.
Return flow will establish Friday night and Saturday as the ridge
slides east toward the north-central Gulf. Moderate southeasterly
flow is expected Saturday night into early Monday, before the
pressure gradient begins to increase and some slightly stronger
winds are possible later Monday into Tuesday night. No rain is
expected through early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    66  87  64  88  64  /  70  10   0   0   0
Victoria          64  83  61  86  60  /  80  10   0   0   0
Laredo            63  90  64  93  64  /  30   0   0   0   0
Alice             64  87  61  89  60  /  60   0   0   0   0
Rockport          67  82  66  84  67  /  70  10   0   0   0
Cotulla           58  88  59  88  60  /  40   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        65  88  62  89  62  /  50   0   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       69  82  69  84  69  /  60  10   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

TMT/89...AVIATION

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
607 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2019

TXZ229>234-239>247-342>347-442-443-447-251115-
La Salle-McMullen-Live Oak-Bee-Goliad-Victoria-Webb-Duval-
Jim Wells-Inland Kleberg-Inland Nueces-Inland San Patricio-
Coastal Aransas-Inland Refugio-Inland Calhoun-Coastal Kleberg-
Coastal Nueces-Coastal San Patricio-Aransas Islands-
Coastal Refugio-Coastal Calhoun-Kleberg Islands-Nueces Islands-
Calhoun Islands-
607 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase today across
South Texas. Some storms may be strong to possibly severe this
afternoon into this evening. Damaging winds and large hail are the
primary hazards but an isolated tornado or two will be possible.

There is a moderate risk for dangerous rip currents today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to submit reports of severe weather to the
National Weather Service in Corpus Christi.

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-251115-
Bays and Waterways from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas-
Bays and Waterways from Port Aransas to Port O'Connor-
Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel out
20 NM-Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to
60 NM-
607 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for the Middle Texas
Coastal Waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be possible
this evening and tonight. Some storms may be strong to severe.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to submit reports of severe weather to the
National Weather Service in Corpus Christi.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
505 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2019

TXZ230>232-242230-
Live Oak-McMullen-Bee-
505 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2019

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT EASTERN MCMULLEN...
NORTHWESTERN LIVE OAK AND NORTHWESTERN BEE COUNTIES...

At 505 PM CDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near Nell to near Simmons. Movement was
east at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail are possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Choke Canyon, Pawnee, Nell, Whitsett and Esseville.

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

LAT...LON 2869 9801 2872 9792 2869 9787 2853 9795
      2849 9839 2868 9825 2879 9810
TIME...MOT...LOC 2205Z 248DEG 23KT 2874 9814 2846 9825

Wagner

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
535 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2019

TXZ230-231-240-241-242315-
Live Oak-Jim Wells-McMullen-Duval-
535 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN DUVAL...
SOUTHEASTERN MCMULLEN...NORTHWESTERN JIM WELLS AND SOUTHWESTERN LIVE
OAK COUNTIES...

At 534 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Seven Sisters,
or 11 miles northeast of Freer, moving northeast at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Freer, Seven Sisters, Annarose, Clegg and Rancho De La Parita.

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

LAT...LON 2786 9866 2814 9847 2821 9813 2785 9813
TIME...MOT...LOC 2234Z 246DEG 25KT 2797 9846

Wagner

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
537 PM CDT WED APR 24 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     GEORGE WEST             28.33N 98.12W
04/24/2019                   LIVE OAK           TX   PUBLIC

            WITNESSED BY 4 PEOPLE OBSERVING FROM THE EXXON GAS
            STATION ON HWY 281 IN GEORGE WEST

&&

DVOGELSA

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
547 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2019

TXZ240-242330-
Duval-
547 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL DUVAL COUNTY...

At 547 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 13 miles northwest
of Realitos, or 15 miles west of Benavides, moving northeast at 40
mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
San Diego, Benavides, San Jose and Rosita.

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 2752 9879 2770 9879 2791 9824 2752 9824
TIME...MOT...LOC 2247Z 239DEG 35KT 2761 9866

Wagner

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
557 PM CDT WED APR 24 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0533 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 N GEORGE WEST         28.34N 98.12W
04/24/2019                   LIVE OAK           TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            2 POWER POLES DOWN JUST NORTH OF GEORGE WEST

&&

DVOGELSA

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